Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro is congrats dakotas thru 144.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro is congrats dakotas thru 144.

T storms on Saturday? 

[George001]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro cutter

Yep Euro is more north. Looks like the low is plowing into the Dakotas and then into central Canada.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That’s an all timer for the upper plains with 24-36”. 

[George001]

Hmm looks like it doesn’t plow into Canada after all. It transfers after cutting to the Dakotas but too late. Need that whole process to occur way SE for us to get snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually ...what it's doing is attempting to 'Minnesota squeeze' an exceptionally powerful vortex.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

T storms on Saturday? 

I don’t think so verbatim…confluence holds strong so it should redevelop for at least the interior.

[ineedsnow]

Looking at hr 180 Euro might actually give us something atleast

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t think so verbatim…confluence holds strong so it should redevelop for at least the interior.

Less energy out west would help 

[ineedsnow]

Crushing at 186 so far out though

[CoastalWx]

I’ll sell that setup, but that’s an interior blue bomb. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Less energy out west would help 

Yea, please. It’s exhausting having these trend deeper out west. 

[ORH_wxman]

OP runs mostly meaningless but the larger ensemble suite of guidance seems pretty decent today. Still a lot of time. 

[ineedsnow]

[CoastalWx]

The clowns won’t happen as shown but a good hit inland. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Looking at hr 180 Euro might actually give us something atleast

Folks need(ed) to look at the whole run Meteorologically - and by that, I don't just mean all 10 days.. .but look outside the myopic low pressure and where it's doing whatever.

The whole run is the hemisphere... I mean a lot of this is not intuitive. I get that. But the vortex in this run can't get N of Michigan in that look.  There's no large scale circulation mode capable of moving it bodily into Canada.  A region in which ( also ..) features a giant train wreck of constipated features.

The main issue with this run that drives the difference between it and the 00z, is the handling of the western heights as it is being ejected E (behind..)  That is flatter on this run.  If/when those ridging structures return, this goes away from the Minn. squeeze back to just being an E expression.  

It's a not a terrible run if we know what to look for/recognize the surrounding constraints. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Wait until the run is over, you get more of what you need.

 

[George001]

Whatever drugs the Euro took before the start of this run, I want them.

[weathafella]

Just now, George001 said:

Whatever drugs the Euro took before the start of this run, I want them.

Devil's lettuce plus?

[512high]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The clowns won’t happen as shown but a good hit inland. 

Scott, Forgive me for asking (been plowing since 2 am lol) Your saying those clown accumulations won't happen, but good hit inland, do you mean CON north, rain south of CON? Yes aware many days out etc. Just trying to read the other post(s)

[WinterWolf]

32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Miller B’s irk me though. We typically aren’t favored for a perfectly timed transfer where the secondary gets going early enough for us. It’s happened, sure, but I’m not as pumped about the look as I was when the h5 pattern looked more a Miller A with northern stream injection. 

I know you’re not a fan…I’ve done well here literally many times in B’s. I don't fear them as much as you, maybe cuz I’m just a little more east, and sometimes that can make a difference.  We’ll be ok bro…at this point at least we have something to track. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The clowns won’t happen as shown but a good hit inland. 

Yeah, in and up 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, 512high said:

Scott, Forgive me for asking (been plowing since 2 am lol) Your saying those clown accumulations won't happen, but good hit inland, do you mean CON north, rain south of CON? Yes aware many days out etc. Just trying to read the other post(s)

No he just means they are overdone. Esp in lower elevations. It would be snow but prob more like 7 or 8 to 1 paste outside of the hills.  

[weathafella]

I’ll take miller B over A everyday and twice on Sunday.

[512high]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

No he just means they are overdone. Esp in lower elevations. It would be snow but prob more like 7 or 8 to 1 paste outside of the hills.  

Ohhh, ok (thank you)

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, 512high said:

Ohhh, ok (thank you)

And That would be specific to that Euro depiction..with it doing all those crazy things…etc etc.

[ORH_wxman]

EPS is kind of halfway between a “minnesota squeeze” (to steal Tip’s phrase) and a more conventional Miller B. Still a lot of be ironed out in the evolution  

 

[JoeSnowBOS]

No real reason to look this far out.  Models have been awful all winter.  This thing will change 1,000 times and expect outcome to be vastly different by that time 

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, 512high said:

Ohhh, ok (thank you)

Yep what he said haha. Verbatim we had SE winds ahead of it so yeah, low elevations and coast would be a lot less. 
 

That said EPS looks nice.

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is kind of halfway between a “minnesota squeeze” (to steal Tip’s phrase) and a more conventional Miller B. Still a lot of be ironed out in the evolution  

 

Definitely a risky look.