Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[Sey-Mour Snow]

@ORH_wxman can we change this thread to Friday PM into Saturday snow threat for SW zones? Mostly to avoid confusion between the two threats. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

@ORH_wxman can we change this thread to Friday PM into Saturday snow threat for SW zones? Mostly to avoid confusion between the two threats. 

I would prefer starting a new thread for that altogether...

This wasn't intended to storm-specific effort - if folks need to allow this one to scroll that's fine. It seems to have made the points that it was intended for. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I would prefer starting a new thread for that altogether...

This wasn't intended to storm-specific effort - if folks need to allow this one to scroll that's fine. It seems to have made the points that it was intended for. 

Makes sense. I’ll start a new one. Good calls as always Tip with this thread.

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I get the spectrum of emotions...

But this thread's coverage was intended for a course work in the potential and pattern recognition, and it was stated in bold, raised font that this was no declaration for a major storm. Rather, to raise the awareness as to the former.

Since then, these two systems have emerged.  

This thread itself ...not sure it should be deemed as a failure.  The failure is allowing one's assumption of satisfaction to overwhelm - 

Part of the problem is... pattern recognition is a bit of an art ... one that unfortunately doesn't actually pin point people's pleasures.  Haha..  That'd be a neat trick.  This is/was and will be an eastern N/A middle latitude risk assessment - within which we unfortunately roll the dice.   Now... it is certainly climatologically true to say that those dice rolls tend to hit from the M/A to the B.M. but ...  frankly, that probably why the EPS and GEFs spent time suggesting Saturday would be just like the EPS looks now, for next Tuesday.    and on and so on

 

I don't feel as though it is....you headlined the 3/10-15 period, and a more imminent threat has emerged from said period. Even if no threat did emerge, all you can do is flag the potential. As far as the new thread, I just interpreted that as helping to distinguish between Saturday and Tuesday, not that your effort was invalid.

[CoastalWx]

Nrn PA with potentially two warning events in 7 days thanks to this next storm. 

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't feel as though it is....you headlined the 3/10-15 period, and a more imminent threat has emerged from said period. Even if no threat did emerge, all you can do is flag the potential. As far as the new thread, I just interpreted that as helping to distinguish between Saturday and Tuesday, not that your effort was invalid.

Oh I know 

really i’m not that sensitive lol. But this I think was a good course work in a sense of recognition … if get into the Saturday thing it confuses that intention?

We can repurpose too if we must. Saturdays thing may also be more of a threat for New Jersey New York City area but I’m sure we have shared interest people. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have zero interest in Saturday and haven't since last weekend. That said, I realized others to the south are interested, so felt as though the other thread was helpful so I don't need to weed out which posts are relevent to my focus.

[cut]

18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well... I start threats for interesting signals and the prospect of interesting Meteorology - nothing else. 

I always have.   Frankly... since no one in modernity really advocates for others in this day and age, I will say this on my own behalf, I think my record over the years is clad.  

What did I put in bold at the beginning of this thread, "A major event is not a declarative here; however, we are in a highly prone scenario between the 10th and 15th of the month.  The idea for this is an early thread for general awareness"

I'm not sure how that warrants reproach and bad rep but ... this is often like the rabble below the balcony of an old English courtyard ...packed with throngs of "super enlightened" thinkers ...

I'm not getting on you for starting the thread!!! Im just talking about the general frustration for us winter weather enthusiasts - I enjoy reading your about your thoughts more than most on this site.  No reproach coming from me.

[mahk_webstah]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Nrn PA with potentially two warning events in 7 days thanks to this next storm. 

Isn’t that 4 days?  Saturday then Tuesday?

[Typhoon Tip]

I realize this is back-burner for most at this point... but, just dropping by to update:

The end point of this risk period, the 15th" ... has definitely become more negotiable ...   The hemisphere may persist in this kind of phase proneness. But at an even baser level, steady diet of Pacific waves with tendencies to +PNAP, while modest less than overly suppressive blocking across 60-70N points to a longer finish.  

There's another increment therein possible between the 18th and the Equinox.   This system next week may not be the last event as some have tongue in cheek surmised - ... personally wish it was but it is what it is

[Volcanic Winter]

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize this is back-burner for most at this point... but, just dropping by to update:

The end point of this risk period, the 15th" ... has definitely become more negotiable ...   The hemisphere may persist in this kind of phase proneness. But at an even baser level, steady diet of Pacific waves with tendencies to +PNAP, while modest less than overly suppressive blocking across 60-70N points to a longer finish.  

There's another increment therein possible between the 18th and the Equinox.   This system next week may not be the last event as some have tongue in cheek surmised - ... personally wish it was but it is what it is

Thank you for all the analysis and information you've provided lately, John. It's very much been appreciated.