Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[NotSureWeather]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I was being sarcastic. Clearly no one controls the weather and no one is to blame when it doesn’t go our way. Although the 2/28 storm that wasn’t for sne was definitely George’s fault. 

The sad part is that was the best snow I’ve had down in New Bedford.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

47 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

The sad part is that was the best snow I’ve had down in New Bedford.

Me too. I had higher expectations though when Jorge stamped the thread with a top 10 blizzard sticker. 

[MJO812]

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Slush on the top of the cruiser?

[The 4 Seasons]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Perfect. That should hold. The 84hr NAM is as rock solid as a Dodge Ram, aint nothin movin that bad boy..yeehawwwww. Winters back boys

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Slush on the top of the cruiser?

That shouldn't be slush 

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Slush on the top of the cruiser?

Ants lookin for another inch or two to double his seasonal snowfall this year. god bless that man

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Ants lookin for another inch or two to double his seasonal snowfall this year. god bless that man

Every inch matters.

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Every inch matters.

TWSS? 

[WinterWolf]

lol…NAM was the first model to sniff out January 2016 coming north into SNE…just saying. Everybody discounted it then too. …scored a coup that time. Very rare, but It happens

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

lol…NAM was the first model to sniff out January 2016 coming north into SNE…just saying. Everybody discounted it then too. …scored a coup that time. Very rare, but It happens

It's actually diving southeast losing intensity all lift is offshore at 84 with an inch or 3 left behind. Meh

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's actually diving southeast losing intensity all lift is offshore at 84 with an inch or 3 left behind. Meh

Yup..was just reminiscing about when it scored a big coup…7 years ago .

[The 4 Seasons]

43 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup..was just reminiscing about when it scored a big coup…7 years ago .

GFS/Icon is essentially a whiff now, congrats. This was hanging on by a thread, now it's over. 

[George001]

Canadian is more north for the Saturday storm threat

[NeonPeon]

Anyone who is right on the coast will know that a whiff at this range in spring at least has a slight hope. Most everything else isnt likely to stay white anyway.  The trend isn't friendly though, and would need to reverse. 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

Canadian is more north for the Saturday storm threat

ya but matches the other models pretty good now.. it was to far south in the first place

[Snowcrazed71]

The way of almost every storm storm this season. No difference on the next two. Whiff.......

.

[George001]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

ya but matches the other models pretty good now.. it was to far south in the first place

True, the guidance is in pretty good agreement on a near miss now. The reason I’m still watching this rather than just watching the following threat (I believe both have a shot) is the low moving SE as it deepens. I don’t buy that at all, I guess it’s possible if the models are showing it but lows normally don’t move like that. I know I sound like im wishcasting, but I truly believe it will come north, and that’s not just because it means more snow for my backyard (I think the following storm is an inland threat and will rain here).

[subdude]

5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Just a announcement  for amwx Members we are planning on extending the hours of the weather weenie crisis hotline beginning Thursday am and continuing until Tuesday .

There is a lot riding on the potential storm Tuesday now that Saturday is toast and we are beefing up our staffing preparing for melts. Please be advised we are professionals 

Phone#

[Typhoon Tip]

Truth be told … I just get aggravated by the imbyism.  I’m seeing two storms as being likely to be caused by this descent into an active pattern.   

One seems more apt to affect SNE … doesn’t mean this thread, or anyone’s contribution within it, failed. In fact quite the opposite. 

Im not sure I trust the NAM for amplitude at this range. But the blend may bring accumulating snow to the upper MA for sat. 

I also maintain only cautious optimism for next week, pending a little more continuity then I’ve seen so far
 

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Truth be told … I just get aggravated by the imbyism.  I’m seeing two storms as being likely to be caused by this descent into an active pattern.   

One seems more apt to affect SNE … doesn’t mean this thread, or anyone’s contribution within it, failed. In fact quite the opposite. 

Im not sure I trust the NAM for amplitude at this range. But the blend may bring accumulating snow to the upper MA for sat. 
 

 

 

The NAM sort of shows what can happen if the system does not occlude at a crazy fast rate...if you ran that thing to 96 it would be insane probably.  I do wonder if maybe globals are attempting to occlude this too quickly upon the transfer and redevelopment.  Even the RGEM does not seem to do it by 84, its just simply way way south

[WinterWolf]

Let’s be honest Tip…I really don’t care if Southern New Jersey gets 4-8”, and I get cirrus with sun shining through. That sucks for us! And if they get 12-20” down there, that hurts and sucks even more! So it may not be a failure overall, but it’s a failure here. And that’s what I, and most care about. Just saying. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s be honest Tip…I really don’t care if Southern New Jersey gets 4-8”, and I get cirrus with sun shining through. That sucks for us! And if they get 12-20” down there, that hurts and sucks even more! So it may not be a failure overall, but it’s a failure here. And that’s what I, and most care about. Just saying. 

 

 

[The 4 Seasons]

UKMET is south, shocker. This one is toast barring some miracle. 

On to the next one. 

[MJO812]

Wave 2

[STILL N OF PIKE]

WPC disco

Early next week, the eastern trough will track further offshore while another trough/low pushes into the north-central U.S./south-central Canada. There are some variations in timing and depth of these lows, but nothing too egregious for the medium range period. This upper low tracking into the central U.S. may dig a bit by Monday-Tuesday as it shifts into the Great Lakes region while ridging amplifies behind in the Interior West. The odds are becoming better that this will promote consolidation of another East Coast surface low, but again with considerable spread in the ensemble mean.

[Roger Smith]

Made the point in the other storm thread that currently a blend of GFS, Euro and GEM looks better than any of them alone, has a good track for 13th-14th. Maybe they will converge on that, a track something like HAT to Benchmark to western Gulf of Maine.

I think there's still a bit of hope for Saturday (or Friday night) but only looks like a 2 to 5 inch sort of potential. The second storm has considerable potential. Blend of models for the win on that (or Korean which I read about but haven't seen). 

[Damage In Tolland]

Grab a couple south of 90 Saturday and see what next week brings. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Wave 2

You really want to push that ahead another 12 to 18 hours..

That's an exceptional signal for this range ... for a multitude of implications that the above (only thru 1 am on Tuesday) don't include. Such as the cinema demos western spread of very deep members.  The depth at by latter Tuesday.  Only slow motion once that is achieved as an east drifter ... these are suggestive of some sort of collation with the deep layer vortex/capture scenario because that performance suggests there is a significant number of members that stall while fusion takes is takes place.

So... then looking the basic 850mb and 2-meter temperature metrics ...they are sufficiently cold enough in a marginal - space that there's higher than climate probability for a large winter p-type impact and on and so on

- mind you ... in deference to this 00z EPS

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s be honest Tip…I really don’t care if Southern New Jersey gets 4-8”, and I get cirrus with sun shining through. That sucks for us! And if they get 12-20” down there, that hurts and sucks even more! So it may not be a failure overall, but it’s a failure here. And that’s what I, and most care about. Just saying. 

I get the spectrum of emotions...

But this thread's coverage was intended for a course work in the potential and pattern recognition, and it was stated in bold, raised font that this was no declaration for a major storm. Rather, to raise the awareness as to the former.

Since then, these two systems have emerged.  

This thread itself ...not sure it should be deemed as a failure.  The failure is allowing one's assumption of satisfaction to overwhelm - 

Part of the problem is... pattern recognition is a bit of an art ... one that unfortunately doesn't actually pin point people's pleasures.  Haha..  That'd be a neat trick.  This is/was and will be an eastern N/A middle latitude risk assessment - within which we unfortunately roll the dice.   Now... it is certainly climatologically true to say that those dice rolls tend to hit from the M/A to the B.M. but ...  frankly, that probably why the EPS and GEFs spent time suggesting Saturday would be just like the EPS looks now, for next Tuesday.    and on and so on