Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[Henry's Weather]

18z NAM (I know...) looks like it could be pretty potent. Stronger SW and PV lobe seems further north.

[Henry's Weather]

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

What do you mean by QPF anomaly?

QPF means Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ...

So, for in the case of that chart, probably there's heavy rain and/or snow associated with that look

  

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't mean for Saturday.

heh.  oh...  that's what you get for stumbling by a discussion

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

QPF means Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ...

So, for in the case of that chart, probably there's heavy rain and/or snow associated with that look

  

I understood what QPF meant... i was curious about whether you meant anomalous for the type of look (less than one would expect due to thermal prof.), or anomalous in general (compared to climo instantaneous norms). More specifically, my question was about the apparent descrepancy between favorable upper-level charts and unfavorable low-level ones

[CoastalWx]

That is a potent s/w on the NAM. You can see though at the end, it looks like a lobe is trying to come south to limit northward extent, but that gets precip into SNE verbatim.

[Typhoon Tip]

still...that 03/03 EPS mean for the (likely...) failed outlook for Saturday, is not hugely different circumstantially to what this present EPS mean looks like at 180 hours...

I get why others are nearing patience with this ... but, the period of interesting is still the 10th through the ides - so in the objective sense. ...

    tough shit.

it either will or will not take advantage in that time range - and all the antecedent consternation and personal d-drip withdrawal angst in the world is not logic or rationale for claiming it won't.  Sorry. It just ain't

[weathafella]

I think the NAM would be pretty good verbatim.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I understood what QPF meant... i was curious about whether you meant anomalous for the type of look (less than one would expect due to thermal prof.), or anomalous in general (compared to climo instantaneous norms). More specifically, my question was about the apparent descrepancy between favorable upper-level charts and unfavorable low-level ones

Yeah ... relative to climate. I mean there is a standard "storm in march" metric...  It's probably better to think of it as a PWAT anomaly, now that I think about it

[Henry's Weather]

18z NAM has a far healthier H5 shortwave and downstream heights structure (peeling upward) than 12z GFS does, whose paltry QPF printout still leaves me quite stumped.

[Typhoon Tip]

Guys... the NAM has a consummate NW placement, and amplitude bias, at any range beyond 48 hours. 

 

[Henry's Weather]

Notice the difference in presence of polar lobe. Could make a large sensible WX difference

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Guys... the NAM has a consummate NW placement, and amplitude bias, at any range beyond 48 hours. 

 

Yea. It’s always right though when it’s the nw outlier that produces mostly rain for sne.

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Guys... the NAM has a consummate NW placement, and amplitude bias, at any range beyond 48 hours. 

 

While taking this into consideration of course 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nam would go to town extrapolated. Hr84 looks healthy. 

[Henry's Weather]

Check out this fetch... I mean, this looks quite good for significant weather.

[WeatherHappens]

so Saturday is back on?

[George001]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Check out this fetch... I mean, this looks quite good for significant weather.

Low location is pretty far north too, that’s inside the benchmark. 

[Damage In Tolland]

ASOUT

[CoastalWx]

No Saturday is not on. The NAM is not the convincing piece of guidance. You're going to need to see incremental better trends through tomorrow.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

so Saturday is back on?

When was it ever off?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

7 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Check out this fetch... I mean, this looks quite good for significant weather.

I don't know my anomalies.  It seems like an anomaly of .2 or .4 might not be that wet.  Do you have a QPF or layer RH?  Thanks.

[WeatherHappens]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When was it ever off?

about 2-3hrs ago

[SnoSki14]

How did March 1888 play out? Was that a miller B

[DJln491]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No Saturday is not on. The NAM is not the convincing piece of guidance. You're going to need to see incremental better trends through tomorrow.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

How did March 1888 play out? Was that a miller B

I think it was but consider going from 50s to teens during the day-just a tad different I’d say…..

[Metasequoia]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

How did March 1888 play out? Was that a miller B

 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think it was but consider going from 50s to teens during the day-just a tad different I’d say…..

Yeah would be incredible to experience today though 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

 

@Sey-Mour Snow, looks like that eps control run lol.

[Henry's Weather]

Look at the dance between polar and mid-level lobes