Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's alright ...

For those interested in actual substantive analysis ( or are even capable of cogency in that regard ..which frankly )

This signal is still precisely where it was in terms of robustness when this thread started. 

Before demoing why... many may want to re-read the opening missive?  

 

I just know the mean was more offshore at one point within the last couple of days, but didn't verify that every single suite had trended in that direction. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not that it has a lot of weight at this point, but the Euro OP at 0z wasn't terrible for next weekend

[Typhoon Tip]

Thanks Will -

Okay, so.. for those disenchanted by the GFS, I can assure you it is a vast ...literally diametric peregrination, comparing across all guidance modes and means, including it's own ensemble consensus.  This first step, easy, quick ...available to all ( for f-sake) comparison, demonstrates that the operational version is radically off on it's own...

...sorry that ended up blurry...but those are the 06z  200+ ( within 12 hours of one another) ..

Anyway, more over, the EPS, the GEPs, both demo coherent signals of a Nor'easter type coastal projection.  Particularly in the EPS

 

Fwiw, the operational Euro, and the operational GGEM ... are in much better sync with the overwhelming suggestion that is also agreed upon by all three EPS/GEFS/GEPs considered...

 

So that covers the case presentation by the Defendants -  

... In closing remarks, I'd also push the hypothesis that the operational GFS, may be in troubled waters considering it's native bias. It tends to progressively stretch the flow, which is noted in be error logs at NCEP...etc... It's subtle, but real, and measurable.  That said, it seems that ( take the lead up to today's event - ) when the flow is fast ( gradient rich), the GFS may perform better, because the flow its self is concerted to the GFS tendency.  But in this case above, there is a pretty profound change in the hemisphere going on. The flow is attempting to hang blocking over 60 to 70 N across the Canadian shield.  This lowers heights along 35 N... so the flow relaxes the gradient some, and that slows the flow.  That may not jive so well with the GFS.  I'm suspicious of the GFS in a pattern that is differentiating into a slower/blockier affairs.  

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not that it has a lot of weight at this point, but the Euro OP at 0z wasn't terrible for next weekend

None of them were!  ...except the one model, and it's ensemble mean is just about 180 degrees out of phase with it. wtf -

No.. as usual, this was some sort of "venting" therapy phenomenon that happens... There's a handful of repeat offenders and we all know who they are... but they have some sort of maladjusted psycho-babble bs agenda, if not quite literally competency issues, and they come into these social media outlets like they're their own sandbox. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

None of them were!  ...except the one model, and it's ensemble mean is just about 180 degrees out of phase with it. wtf -

No.. as usual, this was some sort of "venting" therapy phenomenon that happens... There's a handful of repeat offenders and we all know who they are... but they have some sort of maladjusted psycho-babble bs agenda, if not quite literally competency issues, and they come into these social media outlets like they're their own sandbox. 

I think we even have a thread set up for that venting 

[Typhoon Tip]

man... That 0z "control" version of the Euro was fun...

It actually splits this signal into two events.  Both having sfc pressure down below 980mb...  The first of the two, Mar11/12th... then, just 3 days later, it brings another up. 

Of the two, the first one goes up the Hudson.. snow for interior PA to SE NY, W MA and the Greens, but we all probably start as wet snow before going to rain east - so less than idea. 

But that 2nd one... wow, quite the eye-candy.  It's got temperatures 15 to 25 everywhere NW of Taunton ... with a 974 mb low passing from just S of LI to the BM.  Total 24-hour QPF is averaging 1.8" melted SE of PSM NH to HFD CT line, with over an inch NW, and 3" on the Cape where it's like 34F and probably sustaining close to hurricane wind gusts... 

We have mentioned that this period of time between the 10th and 15th may host multiple events... it's certainly plausible that carries us right up to the equinox ( spring challenges increasing/notwithstanding).   The 2nd one above is 17th or so.. So unfortunately, there is almost no deterministic value at this range. 

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

man... That "control" version of the Euro was fun...

It actually splits this signal into two events.  Both having sfc pressure down below 980mb...  The first of the two, Mar11/12th... then, just 3 days later, it brings another up. 

Of the two, the first one goes up the Hudson.. snow for interior PA to SE NY, W MA and the Greens, but we all probably start as wet snow before going to rain east - so less than idea. 

But that 2nd one... wow, quite the eye-candy.  It's got temperatures 15 to 25 everywhere NW of Taunton ... with a 974 mb low passing from just S of LI to the BM.  Total 24-hour QPF is averaging 1.8" melted SE of PSM NH to HFD CT line, with over an inch NW, and 3" on the Cape where it's like 34F and probably sustaining close to hurricane wind gusts... 

We have mentioned that this period of time between the 10th and 15th may host multiple events... it's certainly plausible that carries us right up to the equinox ( spring challenges increasing/notwithstanding).   The 2nd one above is 17th or so.. So unfortunately, there is almost no deterministic value at this range. 

Growing consensus for mid month arctic shot as part of this evolution?  Then maybe we warm after the 20th?

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Growing consensus for mid month arctic shot as part of this evolution?  Then maybe we warm after the 20th?

I'm not sure about an "arctic" shot.   Gelid, sure... 

Thing is, the 'blocking,' as the western limb -NAO fades ..it really smears west across the Canadian shield in ensemble means of all three, really.  That actually blocks cold from higher latitudes. 

 

As far as the 'after the 20th' warm up...  mixed sentiments in that range.  I mean obviously that's getting into more seasonal dialogue.  There are competing factors for me.   One, the La Nina is dying ( in fact ...the weekly SST anomalies have explosively corrected toward neutral just about everywhere E of 3.4 longitudes...)

...but I am not sure it's momentum in the hemisphere is completely dead by then.  I actually think its grip will be weakening...   

It's very complicated, but La Nina springs tend to be warmer than normal - not so sure about a rapid decay La Nina that is already ( see above) allowing a hemisphere that looks like that!  So it may in fact be a moot inclusion of La Nina factorization in the discussion by then. 

Then, we have to consider the decadal signal for blocking in springs.  It's been a recurring transition season aspect, regardless of ENSO actually... That may transition us into one helluva BD season...certainly we may deal with bowling balls if/when that innate tendency should recur.

[Typhoon Tip]

In fact ...it's not beyond the realm of possibilities that the hemispheric appeal in that annotation above, and the empirical measured anomaly change in the SST ..., are indirectly connectable (physically) with what's going on in the whole planetary system.

What's the SOI... ?  Are the lower lat wind anomalies changing ?    It may be that the whole hemisphere is just up and moving away from the La Nina scaffolding, and so the upwelling is abandoned - ... just venturing

[mahk_webstah]

33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not sure about an "arctic" shot.   Gelid, sure... 

Thing is, the 'blocking,' as the western limb -NAO fades ..it really smears west across the Canadian shield in ensemble means of all three, really.  That actually blocks cold from higher latitudes. 

 

As far as the 'after the 20th' warm up...  mixed sentiments in that range.  I mean obviously that's getting into more seasonal dialogue.  There are competing factors for me.   One, the La Nina is dying ( in fact ...the weekly SST anomalies have explosively corrected toward neutral just about everywhere E of 3.4 longitudes...)

...but I am not sure it's momentum in the hemisphere is completely dead by then.  I actually think its grip will be weakening...   

It's very complicated, but La Nina springs tend to be warmer than normal - not so sure about a rapid decay La Nina that is already ( see above) allowing a hemisphere that looks like that!  So it may in fact be a moot inclusion of La Nina factorization in the discussion by then. 

Then, we have to consider the decadal signal for blocking in springs.  It's been a recurring transition season aspect, regardless of ENSO actually... That may transition us into one helluva BD season...certainly we may deal with bowling balls if/when that innate tendency should recur.

I’m fantasizing about the best case scenario with couple of big storms to finish, a snow pack over 3 feet and then spring. Nothing is seemed very predictable this year, so who knows how to play out at the end of March in the beginning of April. It’s nice that we have a couple of shots for regionwide Coastal’s. We all need to feel like we’ve had a little bit of fun this winter. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I’m fantasizing about the best case scenario with couple of big storms to finish, a snow pack over 3 feet and then spring. Nothing is seemed very predictable this year, so who knows how to play out at the end of March in the beginning of April. It’s nice that we have a couple of shots for regionwide Coastal’s. We all need to feel like we’ve had a little bit of fun this winter. 

"bowling season" has it's own rewards ...even if the return rate on that is very low.    April Fool's Day storm in 1997 was ... actually, I wanna get this off a nerd's chest.  It's always bugged me a little that people think of April '97 as this bowling bomb. It wasn't the best of examples.  As this 500 mb snapshot, 12z on the 31st of March shows ( courtesy NCEP library),  the event was preceded by an integrated relay from the west.

 

It sort of did take that on the next day ...but, it's hard to differentiate this below, from just any deep trough cutting off during the winter. I suppose the 'omega' construct overall sort of makes it both...but that the lead up to it was all an integrated wave propagation and less a bowling ball

[cleetussnow]

OP GFS moved the low 300 miles east to now over Chicago.  Wisconsin blitzed.  
 

this is for around the 10th

[George001]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

OP GFS moved the low 300 miles east to now over Chicago.  Wisconsin blitzed.  

Yep, it also looks like a second low is developing on the backside of storm after it cuts to Chicago. That wasn’t there last run.

[WinterWolf]

Lots of shortwaves and volatility…storms and rumors of storms. All we can ask for at this point. 

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM has a redeveloper Miller B type event and it looks like the Ukie is trying for something similar when the run cuts off at 144. 
 

 

[MJO812]

Wow gefs is way flatter than op

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Whiff, but good enough, at this stage.

[MJO812]

Geps has a big coastal signal 

[NorEastermass128]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Geps has a big coastal signal 

I like your enthusiasm. I guess some of the really wound up solutions into the Midwest are backing down. Someone will get a good shellacking out of this. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gimme something modeled that has like 3-4” QPF please and thank you 

[SnoSki14]

We'd be fine as long as the western trough doesn't dig into Mexico 

[ORH_wxman]

GEFS is a fairly classic Miller B sig. Hopefully by this time tomorrow we still have something. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS is a fairly classic Miller B sig. Hopefully by this time tomorrow we still have something. 

These are good signs today…

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS is a fairly classic Miller B sig. Hopefully by this time tomorrow we still have something. 

yup, great shifts on both ENS so far at 12z. probably has to do with the faster Pacific jet allowing the S/W to scoot E without amplifying so much

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yup, great shifts on both ENS so far at 12z. probably has to do with the faster Pacific jet allowing the S/W to scoot E without amplifying so much

Very nice look. 

[cleetussnow]

40 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gimme something modeled that has like 3-4” QPF please and thank you 

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS is a fairly classic Miller B sig. Hopefully by this time tomorrow we still have something. 

Yeah...   I think maybe some jumped the gun a bit on thinking we had a consensus formulating ?   but either way, we're still in signal recognition and ensemble structuring.  

I mean, we can argue we should by now, for a Mar 11 ( say..) but not really. Because this appears to be dependent on correctly physically processing what's happening on the other side of fairly substantial PNA index change.  The deltas have to be right, which they seldom are, first. 

It's like trying to see ( model ) through performance boundary.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Very nice look. 

Miller B’s irk me though. We typically aren’t favored for a perfectly timed transfer where the secondary gets going early enough for us. It’s happened, sure, but I’m not as pumped about the look as I was when the h5 pattern looked more a Miller A with northern stream injection. 

[MJO812]

Euro cutter