Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

How did the ukie look out beyond 144 hours? It looked like it had a farther SE secondary since the STJ wave wasn’t as amped as the 12z euro js… does stormvista have it out beyond day 6? Thanks bud


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Crushed SE mass

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

How did the ukie look out beyond 144 hours? It looked like it had a farther SE secondary since the STJ wave wasn’t as amped as the 12z euro js… does stormvista have it out beyond day 6? Thanks bud


.

I wouldn’t be getting your hopes up for that second one next week at this point..to far out as of now. It’ll morph 5 times between now and then. But You know this. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya I’m not down with that anymore Pickles. We’ll have to agree to disagree.  It’s lost alot of ground.
 

And Nobody’s tossing…it just doesn’t carry the weight it used to…imo.  You can think it’s better, but I don’t. In fact, I think they’re (GFS and Euro) pretty equal now.  More times than not now, they’ll meet in the middle. Before, it was complete domination by the ECMWF.  Unfortunately Those days are totally gone. 

But you can’t toss the euro like you’ve said a few times. It still should get more weight than other guidance. Just not like 80/20 anymore. 
 

Id give it less weight if it was on an island (like it was in the D4 lead time to 3/4) but in the example of this Saturday, it is not on an island. It is suppressed like other guidance is. GFS is furthest north. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

But you can’t toss the euro like you’ve said a few times. It still should get more weight than other guidance. Just not like 80/20 anymore. 
 

Id give it less weight if it was on an island (like it was in the D4 lead time to 3/4) but in the example of this Saturday, it is not on an island. It is suppressed like other guidance is. GFS is furthest north. 

I didn’t toss it Will…I just don’t give as much credence as I used too. It flip flops all over the dam place constantly too, like the other big boys do. That’s my feeling on it. But I’m not tossing..just way less weight than it used to have.  
 

But Others can weight it as much as they want…I just don’t. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Outside the BM, but lots of precip and some spread west.

OP seems like the nw outlier then? It will shift around sure but the improved pac should keep this within a reasonable range.

[brooklynwx99]

EPS is impressive for early next week. already seeing a phasing scenario and the PNA ridge out west is ideal. caution is advised with the lack of true arctic cold, but this looks good

 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is impressive for early next week. already seeing a phasing scenario and the PNA ridge out west is ideal. caution is advised with the lac of true arctic cold, but this looks good

 

The apex of that ridge looks a tad east of ideal to me…but I’m not a pro. 
 

And now the cold is the problem lol…can’t make it up. The rat seasons always have an issue with something. And this year we’ve had them all. But at least it looks good at day 7. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

ZERO continuity with ensembles or op runs.. We will know more by Monday (sarcasm).. There's no reason to take any model seriously until all models have the same idea for at least 2 runs in a row.. 

European ensembles and OP have been focused on next week for 24 hours.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I didn’t toss it Will…I just don’t give as much credence as I used too. It flip flops all over the dam place constantly too, like the other big boys do. That’s my feeling on it. But I’m not tossing..just way less weight than it used to have.  
 

But Others can weight it as much as they want…I just don’t. 

I also try and look at which models are leading the way. The Euro has been suppressed for several cycles now and the GFS has consistently trended south in the past 4-6 runs compared to when it was bringing the low into SNE. 
 

In the March 3-4 storm, it was the GFS which was holding mostly steady (until finally inching north inside of 48h) while the euro was consistently trending south from almost a cutter solution (or really late redeveloper). 
 

So it’s easy for me to put more weight on the euro solution for this Saturday’s storm than the previous one at d4 when it looked like it was playing catch-up. Doesn’t mean this one will definitely miss, but it feels like it has a better handle this time. 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I didn’t toss it Will…I just don’t give as much credence as I used too. It flip flops all over the dam place constantly too, like the other big boys do. That’s my feeling on it. But I’m not tossing..just way less weight than it used to have.  
 

But Others can weight it as much as they want…I just don’t. 

It’s just the way you talk about it to be honest. If it doesn’t show what you want you get very negative on the Euro. It certainly gives the feeling that your not interested in what it shows and at the same time annoys you that some folks might give it some credit.

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I also try and look at which models are leading the way. The Euro has been suppressed for several cycles now and the GFS has consistently trended south in the past 4-6 runs compared to when it was bringing the low into SNE. 
 

In the March 3-4 storm, it was the GFS which was holding mostly steady (until finally inching north inside of 48h) while the euro was consistently trending south from almost a cutter solution (or really late redeveloper). 
 

So it’s easy for me to put more weight on the euro solution for this Saturday’s storm than the previous one at d4 when it looked like it was playing catch-up. Doesn’t mean this one will definitely miss, but it feels like it has a better handle this time. 

Thanks. Good points, and I know what you mean. I’ll keep that in my mind even more. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Tomorrow evening's 0Z models will have data from a Hurricane Hunter w/ a ceiling of about 23,000 feet flying 'atmospheric rivers'/WCUSA Winter Storm mission.  Or maybe they won't if resources don't permit.  Mission is also tasked for 3/10/23 0Z model.

Quote

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
       A. 09/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 31WSE IOP36
       C. NA
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
          25.0N 120.0W, 25.0N 150.0W, 40.0N 150.0W, AND 40.0N 120.0W.
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 08/2030Z TO 09/0230Z
       F. RESOURCES NOT AVAILABLE FOR MISSION. TASKING IS FOR
          DOCUMENTATION PURPOSES ONLY.

 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s just the way you talk about it to be honest. If it doesn’t show what you want you get very negative on the Euro. It certainly gives the feeling that your not interested in what it shows and at the same time annoys you that some folks might give it some credit.

 

Nah that’s not true. And if it comes across that way, it wasn’t intended to. I don’t wish cast. And have no issue saying something looks like shit. I honestly just don’t think it’s any better than the GFS anymore. That’s just the way I feel. So in my opinion I give it a lot less credence as I said, than 5-8 yrs ago. 
 

I agree with Will, that sometimes it pays to see which one seems to be leading the way.  So I’ll be cognizant of that a little more going forward. 
 

And just to be clear…it has nothing to do with what I want..at all. So I disagree on that statement. Even when it shows what I want I’m skeptical of it now. 

[ORH_wxman]

EPS individual lows….very slow moving too. Too bad it’s prob not the final solution but someone will prob get crushed on this whether it’s NNE/NY state or further south. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS individual lows….very slow moving too. Too bad it’s prob not the final solution but someone will prob get crushed on this whether it’s NNE/NY state or further south. 

 

It's been locked on that look since 12z yestersay.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS individual lows….very slow moving too. Too bad it’s prob not the final solution but someone will prob get crushed on this whether it’s NNE/NY state or further south. 

Now that shows exactly what I want lol…but I know that has very little chance of happening like that at 7 days.  8 yrs ago…that general look/idea would inspire a lot more confidence, than today. And there in lies my point. 
 

But I would love for it to keep that idea going as we get closer. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Now that shows exactly what I want lol…but I know that has very little chance of happening like that at 7 days.  8 yrs ago…that general look/idea would hold inspire a lot more confidence, than today. And there in lies my point. 

JD... I get that appeal of Saturday being closer, and God knows we are all sick of playing soccer with the can...but if there is an issue with a threat, which there is here (confluence), then the closer range works against you. Limiting factors next week are more correctable than they are with respect to Saturday. That said, obviously it's easier for me to say up here.

[weathafella]

34 minutes ago, Heisy said:

How did the ukie look out beyond 144 hours? It looked like it had a farther SE secondary since the STJ wave wasn’t as amped as the 12z euro js… does stormvista have it out beyond day 6? Thanks bud


.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I forgot PW has some eps features for free riders. Looks good lol:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=228&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

[brooklynwx99]

this is an absolute honker of a signal for this range

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

JD... I get that appeal of Saturday being closer, and God knows we are all sick of playing soccer with the can...but if there is an issue with a threat, which there is here (confluence), then the closer range works against you. Limiting factors next week are more correctable than they are with respect to Saturday.

I understand that completely.  I have no problem with that at all. I agree that as of now next week looks better than Saturday. Just skeptical that this goes the same direction, albeit with a different issue of course(too phased, no cold..etc). But hey, we’ve kicked it to the end now, so let’s see what happens. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is an absolute honker of a signal for this range

I think people are traumatized by all of the seasonal can kicking. I highly doubt this signal fades...I think the larger issue will be precip type. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think people are traumatized by all of the seasonal can kicking. I highly doubt this signal phases...I think the larger issue will be precip type. 

Ya I get it. We literally just said the same thing about Saturdays signal now look at it. Storm very likely yes? Yes precip type will be a concern. Also track does it end up congrats Delmarva , congrats SNE or NNE? Also the tendency has been to weaken the signal on approach. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is an absolute honker of a signal for this range

Interior and east crusher makes sense. It will shift around but hard to argue against a hugger right now. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Interior and east crusher makes sense. It will shift around but hard to argue against a hugger right now. 

If it’s a hugger, east is in trouble even more. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We literally just said the same thing about Saturdays signal. 

Lol Yup..we did.  
 

But…..maybe this is the stronger signal starting to emerge?  Holy smokes I hope so.  

[WinterWolf]

Would be nice to squeeze a couple/few inches Saturday, and gear up for the big dog next Tuesday/Wednesday. Is that too much to ask? 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Would be nice to squeeze a couple/few inches Saturday, and gear up for the big dog next Tuesday/Wednesday. Is that too much to ask? 

Yes.

[Torch Tiger]

Not to say S/SE areas won't get anything, but I'm still hedging up/in as the better bet for big snows. Said this last week, too.  Being March, and more importantly there has been little to no arctic air around.  Add the seasonal hugger track/ R-S lines, it's been mostly interior.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya I get it. We literally just said the same thing about Saturdays signal now look at it. Storm very likely yes? Yes precip type will be a concern. Also track does it end up congrats Delmarva , congrats SNE or NNE? Also the tendency has been to weaken the signal on approach. 

The seasonal tendency to weaken on approach was due to RNA/NAO block shearing.....there is somewhat of a PNA ridge here. I don't think this signal weakens.....Sey-Mour Signal