Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[WxWatcher007]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:39 PM, dendrite said:

Congrats deep interior. Bodies getting covered back up

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[Allsnow]

[ORH_wxman]

You don’t generally want a strong ULL over Lake Huron. It interferes with where you want any semblance of high pressure resistance to help put. You either want something well NW like over James bay or have it much further southeast like over PA.

You can get a decent track with the ULL over Lake Huron, but those are the types of runs where it scours our all the cold. You have a southerly flow in Quebec in response to it so there’s basically no ageo drain until the main storm is really close…which by that time, your cold source has been exhausted and scoured out. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:42 PM, ORH_wxman said:

You don’t generally want a strong ULL over Lake Huron. It interferes with where you want any semblance of high pressure resistance to help put. You either want something well NW like over James bay or have it much further southeast like over PA.

You can get a decent track with the ULL over Lake Huron, but those are the types of runs where it scours our all the cold. You have a southerly flow in Quebec in response to it so there’s basically no ageo drain until the main storm is really close…which by that time, your cold source has been exhausted and scoured out. 

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Yep. 

[dendrite]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:42 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

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I'm more than ready for spring, but sometimes you just have to roll with it

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

ZERO continuity with ensembles or op runs.. We will know more by Monday (sarcasm).. There's no reason to take any model seriously until all models have the same idea for at least 2 runs in a row.. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:43 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yep. 

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And I should caveat, there’s a long way to go on that system. ULL placement has been jumping quite a bit. At least there’s something to track…but I don’t think people should expect it to be snowy. There’s plenty of ways it doesn’t snow on that. 

[Chris12WX]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:11 PM, weathafella said:

I'll save you the aggravation....

 

 

 

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That’s an adorable little cyclone there. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:39 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That run sucks, but we have continuity on a major storm NEXT WEEK.

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That’s it. Sweating details at this juncture is fruitless especially with how Saturday’s deal shifted in the d5 range. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:46 PM, ORH_wxman said:

And I should caveat, there’s a long way to go on that system. ULL placement has been jumping quite a bit. At least there’s something to track…but I don’t think people should expect it to be snowy. There’s plenty of ways it doesn’t snow on that. 

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Yeah I'm a little uneasy with that one despite a week out. At least we have one model missing and one giving a cold rain. Room to move around some.

[qg_omega]

It’s the same pattern despite many saying how epic the pattern is

[mahk_webstah]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:50 PM, qg_omega said:

It’s the same pattern despite many saying how epic the pattern is

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And you are the same too.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:50 PM, qg_omega said:

It’s the same pattern despite many saying how epic the pattern is

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It’s not but if you believe it enough, you’ll think it’s true.

[qg_omega]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:51 PM, mahk_webstah said:

And you are the same too.

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I’ve enjoyed the pattern, had great weekend skiing and watched a 15 inch storm.  Looks to continue which is great for the mountains as one would expect in March

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:35 PM, CoastalWx said:

Maybe, but the confluence is gone. Risk is up our fannies.

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Confluence crushes Saturday and disappears for next week on the euro. That would fit this season PERFECTLY

[SnoSki14]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:50 PM, qg_omega said:

It’s the same pattern despite many saying how epic the pattern is

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Disagree. Down here we've had two minor snow events within the last week whereas we had 0 before then.

Temperatures are also averaging near or slightly below normal whereas in Jan/Feb it was +8/5

[DavisStraight]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:52 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s not but if you believe it enough, you’ll think it’s true.

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It's not a lie, if you believe it's true.

[George001]

The storm on Saturday will come north. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:50 PM, qg_omega said:

It’s the same pattern despite many saying how epic the pattern is

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But it’s not you silly nut.  However, the outcome may be the same(we get skunked).   But the pattern is completely different, and is actually supportive of significant storms as you can see on modeling.  But we can’t get any help at all from the little nuances/details that make or break a system.  And That’s where you are wrong and make your mistake pal. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:59 PM, George001 said:

The storm on Saturday will come north. 

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It very well could.  It wouldn’t take much weakening of the confluence. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:54 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Confluence crushes Saturday and disappears for next week on the euro. That would fit this season PERFECTLY

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It would. And it’s sad, and unfortunate. 

[George001]

  On 3/7/2023 at 7:06 PM, WinterWolf said:

It very well could.  It wouldn’t take much weakening of the confluence. 

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Yep if that weakens just a little bit there will be room for the low to come up the coast. 

[CoastalWx]

We can lock the EPS for next week.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/7/2023 at 6:54 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Confluence crushes Saturday and disappears for next week on the euro. That would fit this season PERFECTLY

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Don’t worry, there’s another one behind it ha.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 3/7/2023 at 7:09 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Don’t worry, there’s another one behind it ha.

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Can we get a 10 day map. Scooter was asking 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/7/2023 at 7:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

We can lock the EPS for next week.

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Pics… or it’s not real.

[Heisy]

  On 3/7/2023 at 5:53 PM, weathafella said:

Right about now we enter 6 weeks of suck. It might as well snow tbh.

How did the ukie look out beyond 144 hours? It looked like it had a farther SE secondary since the STJ wave wasn’t as amped as the 12z euro js… does stormvista have it out beyond day 6? Thanks bud


.

[WinterWolf]

  On 3/7/2023 at 5:38 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The euro is still a bit better than the gfs 

it’s not the “king “ but you aren’t going to find a model that is better 

in other words , you don’t toss the euro at day 4

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Ya I’m not down with that anymore Pickles. We’ll have to agree to disagree.  It’s lost alot of ground.
 

And Nobody’s tossing…it just doesn’t carry the weight it used to…imo.  You can think it’s better, but I don’t. In fact, I think they’re (GFS and Euro) pretty equal now.  More times than not now, they’ll meet in the middle. Before, it was complete domination by the ECMWF.  Unfortunately Those days are totally gone. 

[Spanks45]

  On 3/7/2023 at 7:09 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Don’t worry, there’s another one behind it ha.

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Soon we will be rooting on the second one to amp up and pull down the cold air so it can lock it in for the third one coming....

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/7/2023 at 7:10 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pics… or it’s not real.

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Outside the BM, but lots of precip and some spread west.