Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[Typhoon Tip]

admiring the 84 hr

...that may or may not bring goods into SNE but someone in the eastern PA/Jersey area may score in that

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it does. Confluence just crushes it. There’s probably a non-linear response to this though if confluence comes in a little weaker on future runs.  You can see how close synoptically it is to a very good storm. 

This setup screams of the old north trend days. When models suppressed  storms yet you knew the confluence would weaken as you get closer. This is going to get snows into SNE Saturday night/ Sunday 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I also like that it's widening the gap between it, and the 'possibilities' next week by speeding things up a tad

Hopefully with each successive suite, people can process this latest failure so we can move past it and focus more collective analysis on next week. I get the resistance...I do...its another can kick, etc...but it is what it is. 

Get over it-

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This setup screams of the old north trend days. When models suppressed  storms yet you knew the confluence would weaken as you get closer. This i

I dunno man…that block isn’t some weak entity. It wouldn’t take much weakening for the storm to be a solid hit, but I don’t see why we should expect it to weaken on future runs…it might weaken, but I think it is just as likely it could come in stronger. 

[CoastalWx]

Next week looks amped. LOL.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully with each successive suite, people can process this latest failure so we can move past it and focus more collective analysis on next week. I get the resistance...I do...its another can kick, etc...but it is what it is. 

Get over it-

You prob wouldn’t be punting this so easily if you were in CT or equivalent latitude. 

Next week definitely has more pacific support but it could also end up running west of us too. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You prob wouldn’t be punting this so easily if you were in CT or equivalent latitude. 

Next week definitely has more pacific support but it could also end up running west of us too. 

If it ain’t snow in Metheun, it ain’t snow nowhere’s 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week looks amped. LOL.

I'm only out to 114 but that pv frag hanging over N. D. waiting to subsume the southern aspects looks tasty   heh

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week looks amped. LOL.

That 970s storm from Saturday, heading toward Bermuda is going to shove the next one right into Central PA....

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It has more of a chance than Saturday, which has looked like shit around here for awhile. I guess I may feel differently near the south coast, but...

 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You prob wouldn’t be punting this so easily if you were in CT or equivalent latitude. 

Next week definitely has more pacific support but it could also end up running west of us too. 

I've already admitted that. That said, I don't think it's going to pan out for many of any.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If it ain’t snow in Metheun, it ain’t snow nowhere’s 

Rain to Maine?

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it does. Confluence just crushes it. There’s probably a non-linear response to this though if confluence comes in a little weaker on future runs.  You can see how close synoptically it is to a very good storm. 

Kevin's mind set is non linear, as well....at baseline, he will latch into the nearest threat like a pitbull and be resistant to any reality that runs to the contrary. But if his frustration reaches a certain threshold,  then its "Raines to Maines"....or "only nickles and dimes" or...."done for the season" He has cycled through that and returned to baseline...for now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Rain to Maine?

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kevin's mind set is non linear, as well....at baseline, he will latch into the nearest threat like a pitbull and be resistant to any reality that runs to the contrary. But if his frustration reaches a certain threshold,  then its "Raines to Maines"....or "only nickles and dimes" or...."done for the season" He has cycled through that and returned to ballseline...for now.

 

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

admiring the 84 hr

...that may or may not bring goods into SNE but someone in the eastern PA/Jersey area may score in that

Not giving up on wave 1 down here. Things aren't that far off from something decent

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm only out to 114 but that pv frag hanging over N. D. waiting to subsume the southern aspects looks tasty   heh

Yeah for the Dacks.

[Damage In Tolland]

You’d better pray Saturday happens ( if you like snow)

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah for the Dacks.

That is the risk, but I like my odds better of appreciable snows with that one...which is why I said I wouldn't feel as good near the s coast. That said, EPS has been less amped.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not giving up on wave 1 down here. Things aren't that far off from something decent

You shouldn't. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the risk, but I like my odds better of appreciable snows with that one...which is why I said I wouldn't feel as good near the s coast. That said, EPS has been less amped.

Maybe, but the confluence is gone. Risk is up our fannies.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Maybe, but the confluence is gone. Risk is up our fannies.

They are well oiled this year 

[Spanks45]

oof, track looks ok, but where is the cold air? Looks warm outside of the higher terrain. The ensembles were hinting at this too...only this season?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe, but the confluence is gone. Risk is up our fannies.

Better than up the Andrea Gale's flagpole.

[CoastalWx]

GFS at least is not as phase happy. So would be nice for something in between.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

oof, track looks ok, but where is the cold air? Looks warm outside of the higher terrain. The ensembles were hinting at this too...only this season?

N Stream interacted later.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That run sucks, but we have continuity on a major storm NEXT WEEK.

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You shouldn't. 

Do you think a more amped up wave 1 would lead to a less phased storm for 2.

GFS suggests it would 

[dendrite]

Congrats deep interior. Bodies getting covered back up

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

N Stream interacted later.

barely below freezing near the Canadian border @ 0z Tuesday during the height of it down here....

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’d better pray Saturday happens ( if you like snow)

If you were the good lord, would you prioritize snow weenies pray for vs end of starvation that others pray for?

[dendrite]

No complaints with that run here.