Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[WeatherHappens]

Looking like a nice sunny day Saturday

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Weenies pushing hard for Saturday . 

[NorEastermass128]

So close to a monster on Saturday. 

[ariof]

GFS says congrats ACK.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Weenies pushing hard for Saturday . 

Because we know deep down early next week isn't happening either. And the seasonal progression is making each threat less likely. Watching the GEFS trend southward each run tells you where Saturday is headed. Unless a Hail Mary occurs, this season is pretty much a wrap if Saturday doesn't snow.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Because we know deep down early next week isn't happening either. And the seasonal progression is making each threat less likely. Watching the GEFS trend southward each run tells you where Saturday is headed. Unless a Hail Mary occurs, this season is pretty much a wrap if Saturday doesn't snow.

I really don’t have a read on Tuesday’ish threat . I just know it’s not unusual if neither one crushes us If they don’t get inside day 5 as a hit .  

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I really don’t have a read on Tuesday’ish threat . I just know it’s not unusual if neither one crushes us If they don’t get inside day 5 as a hit .  

Saturday system was odd with the CMC/Euro farther SE than the GFS....At least early next week has the GFS/GEFS southeast and the EURO/CMC further NW(fits their bias at this range, if those biases still exist enough to have a wholesale effect on the forecast around here)

[NorEastermass128]

8 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Because we know deep down early next week isn't happening either. And the seasonal progression is making each threat less likely. Watching the GEFS trend southward each run tells you where Saturday is headed. Unless a Hail Mary occurs, this season is pretty much a wrap if Saturday doesn't snow.

She won’t let us out though. We’ll have threats through the equinox most likely.  It could be a rough period if we strike out again and again. 

[JKEisMan]

Ukie has monster that explodes off the coast and slides SE (for Saturday)

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Because we know deep down early next week isn't happening either. And the seasonal progression is making each threat less likely. Watching the GEFS trend southward each run tells you where Saturday is headed. Unless a Hail Mary occurs, this season is pretty much a wrap if Saturday doesn't snow.

I wouldn’t start planting the garden anytime soon if I were you. 

[TalcottWx]

[radarman]

QPF aside the GEFS members had a couple way SE runs that hopefully are outliers and might bump the mean toward the main cluster closer in

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, radarman said:

QPF aside the GEFS members had a couple way SE runs that hopefully are outliers and might bump the mean toward the main cluster closer in

 

35 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Also a pretty big trend south with less QPF from 00z to 06z to 12z. Not great. 

 

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS a scrape this weekend.

Mean is 6 inches across CT. Does not look great.

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I wouldn’t start planting the garden anytime soon if I were you. 

It’s purgatory.

Perpetual explosive potential with just enough scraps to breed a twisted combination of external optimism and internal desperation. 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s purgatory.

Perpetual explosive potential with just enough scraps to breed a twisted combination of external optimism and internal desperation. 

Well said.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s purgatory.

Perpetual explosive potential with just enough scraps to breed a twisted combination of external optimism and internal desperation. 

B.B.P

 

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

Mean is 6 inches across CT. Does not look great.

I don't understand?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I don't understand?

Mean is way down from 00z.. gfs last to the party again. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Well said.

And I’m not taking shots. Yeah, I want spring, but I really want a big dog.

I stop scrolling and look at the 7-14 day pretty colors when they’re posted, and I get the meteorology that says the potential is real. 

But I also know I’ve been doing that since November, literally, and the result has been a historically bad year and increasingly hostile climo now creeping in. 

[ORH_wxman]

Saturday is def not looking great but non-GFS suite trends were north at 12z. So I wouldn’t write it off yet. But it’s the type of system you want to see another bump north at 00z. Can’t afford any negative trends. 
 

Also pending the euro. If that model doesn’t look any better at 12z, it makes it more of a long shot. Despite it not dominating like it used to, it’s still a top tier model. 

[Spanks45]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I wouldn’t start planting the garden anytime soon if I were you. 

The process already started, but regardless of snow or no snow....That said, I fully expect crappy weather like today. Just enough wind with the sun to negate the warm/fuzzy feelings. I think it would be better for all of us if all of these "threats" would just go away at this point instead of teasing us with the what could have been.... sorry.....

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

trust me, I have seen seasons have one anomalous blocking spell to come away with nothing. but two??? that is pretty difficult to do. I'll take my chances through the 20th

This.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Mean is way down from 00z.. 

Actually for my area it only went down an inch…and that’s a mean. For other areas yes it’s more. But that’s still not that bad for western CT. 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This.

There's a first time for everything 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS:

 

 

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Let’s move the 0z euro 100mi east so we can all shake hands with our pants down. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Actually for my area it only went down an inch…and that’s a mean. For other areas yes it’s more. But that’s still not that bad for western CT. 

Here’s 00z

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's a first time for everything 

So will you give the morgue style posting a rest for once?

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Here’s 00z

Yeah, that’s a drastic shave

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Here’s 00z

Oh, I thought the one you had above it in your first post was 0z. 
 

I still don’t think this is dead. And the Euro isn’t the dominating model anymore..

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS has a bunch of convective lows. I'm still not really buying Saturday around here...I guess we shall see what the other guidance does.

I have zero interest in Saturday. Its going to miss up here. 100% of my interest in next week.