Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’ll pass on the shaking hands but sure let’s move it east a bit .. 

You can’t have one without the other. That’s how we roll. 

[KTBFFH1905]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

We have had a record breaking winter. Nearly 10 degrees above average in January, very little snow. We all know you loved every second of it, just admit it. You like warmer weather, like Torch Tiger does.

Silver lining for me is if I can't find good snow to ski at least I can disc golf all winter. I don't have the patience to play in the snow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nice sne hit on the icon. Wish it could score one for the desperate weenies.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice sne hit on the icon. Wish it could score one for the desperate weenies.

We icon 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice sne hit on the icon. Wish it could score one for the desperate weenies.

Icon likes Saturday…has had this looking good for a few runs…

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is going to continue to go south this run for Saturday. 

[CoastalWx]

Icon was kind of fizzling though for Saturday. Won't get much with that.

[binbisso]

Rgem and nam look good at the end of their runs. Gfs looks juiced

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is going to continue to go south this run for Saturday. 

It might try last minute.

[binbisso]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is going to continue to go south this run for Saturday. 

It looks north to me so far

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It might try last minute.

Yeah I may be wrong lol. Stronger shortwave May overcome it. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, binbisso said:

It looks north to me so far

Yeah it was def south through about 72h but it’s made up ground 

[dendrite]

Congrats S coast

[binbisso]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it was def south through about 72h but it’s made up ground 

Yup and like 5mb stronger 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I may be wrong lol. Stronger shortwave May overcome it. 

So close lol.

[512high]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

So close lol.

Sooooooo if Sat. misses, does that help next week, or both looking gonzo?

[CoastalWx]

GFS has a bunch of convective lows. I'm still not really buying Saturday around here...I guess we shall see what the other guidance does.

[CoastalWx]

Canadian looks a little stronger for Saturday too at hr 84.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS has a bunch of convective lows. I'm still not really buying Saturday around here...I guess we shall see what the other guidance does.

GGEM looks quite a bit north this run. 

[Modfan2]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So close lol.

Congrats MVY!

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM looks quite a bit north this run. 

Maybe this thing ain’t dead after all? 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM looks quite a bit north this run. 

An improvement from 00z that's for sure, albeit a little outside. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 512high said:

Sooooooo if Sat. misses, does that help next week, or both looking gonzo?

Well in theory it may help, but that is one piece of a big puzzle regarding next week. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Maybe this thing ain’t dead after all? 

Well I said we needed some positive trends at 12z and so far we’ve gotten that. We’ll see what the Ukie/euro do but so far it’s been a little better. 
 

I do like seeing the ULL pretty far north near CLE/ERI…even more toward BUF on the GFS. Usually it’s hard to whiff us south when you get the ULL that far north. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe this thing ain’t dead after all? 

This is and has been the one 

[weathafella]

You have to factor the KFS bias of always keying in the first shot in a multi shot pattern.

[weatherwiz]

Getting pretty intrigued with Saturday. Obviously there are questions regarding the track, but the upper-level dynamics seem much more impressive then the past few systems with tracked east-southeast across the Great Lakes. Much stronger vort which remains closed later and you have the jet streak beginning to round the base of the trough moving into the Northeast, indicating potential for rapid amplification or strengthening. 

I wonder though if the southern track will pose the highest likelihood for a more intense system? Sure that will suck more most, but would be a beauty to watch unfold. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Saturday looks like a long shot outside GFS , I mean cmc might have been a closer miss but it was basically off Va coast at closest pass

is this some kind of setup where the modeled MSLP is not really indicative of the potential if we look at H5 or something?

 

[CoastalWx]

GEFS a scrape this weekend.

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS a scrape this weekend.

Also a pretty big trend south with less QPF from 00z to 06z to 12z. Not great.