Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase

this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well

wasn't the EPS perfect a few days ago for a KU this weekend.  Thought you couldn't draw it up any better?

[WinterWolf]

Just now, qg_omega said:

wasn't the EPS perfect a few days ago for a KU this weekend.  Thought you couldn't draw it up any better?

Very true. But he’s just posting what it shows currently, and I agree that it never quite makes it inside 5 days. Don’t shoot the messenger type thing. 

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

wasn't the EPS perfect a few days ago for a KU this weekend.  Thought you couldn't draw it up any better?

no changes?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well Saturday looked just as good a couple days ago too. This look will morph as we go along, so who knows how it looks by Thursday or Friday.  I appreciate the breakdown…but it needs to get closer and produce something.  But thanks for the post. 

Yea. We‘ll watch and salivate over explosive runs but we need to get this inside d5 for a better handle.

[qg_omega]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no changes?

how much snow you had since no changes?  Temps above normal?  Warmest winter ever?  Massive gradient winter?  Historic cold and snow out west?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The clock is ticking even in SNE and models are all over the place.

Awful 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

how much snow you had since no changes?  Temps above normal?  Warmest winter ever?  Massive gradient winter?  Historic cold and snow out west?

He is a good poster but we have been burned so many times.

 

It's hard to get excited about a pattern after 5 days .

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well Saturday looked just as good a couple days ago too. This look will morph as we go along, so who knows how it looks by Thursday or Friday.  I appreciate the breakdown…but it needs to get closer and produce something.  But thanks for the post. 

Kicking the can

[George001]

28 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

how much snow you had since no changes?  Temps above normal?  Warmest winter ever?  Massive gradient winter?  Historic cold and snow out west?

We have had a record breaking winter. Nearly 10 degrees above average in January, very little snow. We all know you loved every second of it, just admit it. You like warmer weather, like Torch Tiger does.

[Spanks45]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. We‘ll watch and salivate over explosive runs but we need to get this inside d5 for a better handle.

Despite the fading look on Saturday, the GEFS still look OK for a small to moderate event down here. But, this season! We know it will be wrong, pick the least snowiest model and it will be correct in the end

[Heisy]

the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase

this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well

If it’s more N/S dominant (which this run is since it’s diving farther S) I’d worry about stronger primary and more of a tug inland as it develops Northward. See what 12z euro run brings, but i do think if we saw that run go out beyond 144 there would have been a lot of huggers, that being said it would have probably crushed the interior. Feeling good about this being the real deal and the GFS will likely adjust by end of the day. As always, with storm #1 the GFS is slowly caving to euro/eps guidance. I would probably gambled a million dollars that the 6z gfs was going to come in less amped vs it’s 00z run and it did….

Rooting for the coastal plain but just want a big one to chase…




.

[brooklynwx99]

the whole "no changes" shit is completely disingenuous. there have obviously been wholesale changes in the pattern. whether that leads to snow or not is a totally different story and is dependent on way more factors than simple longwave configuration

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

If it’s more N/S dominant (which this run is since it’s diving farther S) I’d worry about stronger primary and more of a tug inland as it develops Northward. See what 12z euro run brings, but i do think if we saw that run go out beyond 144 there would have been a lot of huggers, that being said it would have probably crushed the interior. Feeling good about this being the real deal and the GFS will likely adjust by end of the day. As always, with storm #1 the GFS is slowly caving to euro/eps guidance. I would probably gambled a million dollars that the 6z gfs was going to come in less amped vs it’s 00z run and it did….

Rooting for the coastal plain but just want a big one to chase…




.

yes, but get the NS to really dive south and you raise the ceiling. it's a risk I'm willing to take at this point in the season... go big or go home

[Whineminster]

It'll snow for the typical locations on Saturday, just not a lot. Relax y'all. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yes, but get the NS to really dive south and you raise the ceiling. it's a risk I'm willing to take at this point in the season... go big or go home

Agreed! But we gotta get it alot closer. You are a great asset here. Love your posting and analysis…keep it up. Obviously I think you understand all the caveats and points being made. It’s just so frustrating to see a good pattern and not ever being able to capitalize on anything this season. But, I agree there have been major changes now, and the question is, do we get skunked yet again? Dam I hope not. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the whole "no changes" shit is completely disingenuous. there have obviously been wholesale changes in the pattern. whether that leads to snow or not is a totally different story and is dependent on way more factors than simple longwave configuration

He knows it is disingenuous. He doesn’t care. 
 

Anyone with any modicum of meteorology knowledge knows the pattern has been quite different since about 2/23. There’s a reason CNE/NNE has gone gangbusters in that period and there’s actually been some snow events in SNE as well with potential for more. 

[George001]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the whole "no changes" shit is completely disingenuous. there have obviously been wholesale changes in the pattern. whether that leads to snow or not is a totally different story and is dependent on way more factors than simple longwave configuration

It’s ok to track storms that don’t pan out, qqomegas thick skull cannot seem to get that concept. Even if both storms miss, or storm 1 whiffs while storm 2 runs inland, so what? We had a favorable pattern, and if we had a great time tracking it really doesn’t make a difference whether we get nothing or 2 feet. Even if we don’t score, that doesn’t negate the enjoyment we had tracking the storms. If it’s just the snow itself you enjoy rather than tracking storms, there is no point in tracking, you may as well just…. not look at the models and wait for the snow to start falling. There isn’t anything wrong with doing that, but in that case why bother posting on these boards? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the whole "no changes" shit is completely disingenuous. there have obviously been wholesale changes in the pattern. whether that leads to snow or not is a totally different story and is dependent on way more factors than simple longwave configuration

Don’t waste your energy on it. If next week crushes he’ll be gone.

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Agreed! But we gotta get it alot closer. You are a great asset here. Love your posting and analysis…keep it up. Obviously I think you understand all the caveats and points being made. It’s just so frustrating to see a good pattern and not ever being able to capitalize on anything this season. But, I agree there have been major changes now, and the question is, do we get skunked yet again? Dam I hope not. 

trust me, I have seen seasons have one anomalous blocking spell to come away with nothing. but two??? that is pretty difficult to do. I'll take my chances through the 20th

[Heisy]

I thought last nights 00z euro stream interaction reminded me of a farther N version of January 25, 2000. That one had a stronger southern stream and developed farther S.
2000. Similarly it tucked inland as it phased N….




.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Heisy said:

I thought last nights 00z euro stream interaction reminded me of a farther N version of January 25, 2000. That one had a stronger southern stream and developed farther S.
2000. Similarly it tucked inland as it phased N….




.

No thanks.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No thanks.

Bobalina is looking for a big rain and wind storm though. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Bobalina is looking for a big rain and wind storm though. 

Maybe next week?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Slantstick2001 said:

Imagine melting down over something you have no control over... to your point though..if you are a snow weenie you have to model watch at your on peril. Otherwise just enjoy your everyday life and be pleasantly surprised when it does snow!

I dunno, people melt all the time over things they can’t control and not just weather. We are sensitive animals.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe next week?

Let’s move the 0z euro 100mi east so we can all shake hands with our pants down. 

[CoastalWx]

I don't hate the NAM for Saturday. Words that are not confident when describing the NAM at the end of its range.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't hate the NAM for Saturday. Words that are not confident when describing the NAM at the end of its range.

It’s definitely more amped with the primary which is ironic because this time around, we need that. We’ve been squirming over strong primaries all season. 

[UnitedWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Words that are not confident when describing the NAM at the end of its range.

Agreed 100%

[Sey-Mour Snow]

41 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Let’s move the 0z euro 100mi east so we can all shake hands with our pants down. 

I’ll pass on the shaking hands but sure let’s move it east a bit .. 

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

No thanks.

I hated that storm