Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 3/3/2023 at 11:39 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

The GEFS mean and GFS OP are about 2000 miles apart

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I’ll put my money on whatever version produces less snow 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/3/2023 at 11:39 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

The GEFS mean and GFS OP are about 2000 miles apart

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What’s 2k miles amongst friends…

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/4/2023 at 12:53 AM, WinterWolf said:

8 day operational runs sending some over the edge…WTF is wrong with some folks? 

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I think the issue is that it's been multiple runs of multiple models.

[WinterWolf]

  On 3/4/2023 at 1:38 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the issue is that it's been multiple runs of multiple models.

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Still 8 days out ..but ok.
 

I guess it’s toast already lol…Cosgrove for the win? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/4/2023 at 4:56 AM, SnoSki14 said:

These mega blocks up north do us no favors. They aren't displaced far enough north so they risk linking up with the southern ridge. 

Once that happens the shortwave out west doesn't eject E/SE instead it digs far south into Cabo which only pumps the omega like ridge even more. 

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I would just like to see some variance...all of the OPs have been locked on this like a pit bull.

[MuddyWx]

GEFS say cutter :/

[MuddyWx]

[WinterWolf]

  On 3/4/2023 at 4:58 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would just like to see some variance...all of the OPs have been locked on this like a pit bull.

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Yup, they’re on this like a bloodhound. I mean the minute the thread was started, it immediately went in the toilet lol. Can’t make it up. 
 

I guess the good news is, we don’t have to waste another minute on it.  
 

Incredible pattern that can’t produce anything for the east. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/4/2023 at 6:21 AM, WinterWolf said:

Yup, they’re on this like a bloodhound. I mean the minute the thread was started, it immediately went in the toilet lol. Can’t make it up. 
 

I guess the good news is, we don’t have to waste another minute on it.  
 

Incredible pattern that can’t produce anything for the east. 

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I figure one more real good threat, then I'm out.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Not that I’m gung ho but the euro op just dropped 15” in RI to Scooter is that ...bad lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/4/2023 at 7:19 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Not that I’m gung ho but the euro op just dropped 15” in RI to Scooter is that ...bad lol

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That's all I needed...just some variance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EPS continues ticking west...over cape, which is decent if there is a decent antecedent airmass. 

[MJO812]

Euro!

Euro control!

[Modfan2]

Almost get the vibe in here of the crazy uncle trying to win the radio contest from the John Cusack movie One Crazy Summer.

[BombsAway1288]

  On 3/4/2023 at 5:25 AM, MuddyWx said:

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Yikes! And just like that there goes that “great look”. It’s ovah!

[BombsAway1288]

  On 3/4/2023 at 9:47 AM, MJO812 said:

Euro!

Euro control!

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I thought we were supposed to just follow the ensembles? 
12z will be back over Detroit, guaranteed. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 3/4/2023 at 9:47 AM, MJO812 said:

Euro!

Euro control!

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Ya I know nice rain storm on the control next weekend for us. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Eps with a solid push east need another one. Still day 7-8 though. 

[George001]

  On 3/4/2023 at 9:47 AM, MJO812 said:

Euro!

Euro control!

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Euro and Canadian have a Miller B

[SouthCoastMA]

Means: 

6z GEFS: OV/NY State

0z GEPS: Delmarva to Benchmark 

0z EPS: Off NJ

Lots of spread in the ensembles as expected 8 days out

[ineedsnow]

  On 3/4/2023 at 11:23 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Eps with a solid push east need another one. Still day 7-8 though. 

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Some of those members must destroy.. 

[mahk_webstah]

  On 3/3/2023 at 7:13 PM, CoastalWx said:

S/w dives out west to the 4-corners, block forms, but no confluence to our north. Or very little.  Where have we seen that?

 

But, GEFS are much further east.

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GYX says the NAO is going to start to decay this week. I guess it’s a matter of how much confluence is left to force this thing east. It may be that we get another one up here but it doesn’t quite deliver completely to our south. 

[mahk_webstah]

WPC map looks like a good set up for at least some of NE.  Looks like a big Canadian high trying to build SE while the storm forms.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 3/4/2023 at 5:25 AM, MuddyWx said:

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Don't attempt to block this therapeutic commiseration orgy with anything that 'pulls out' a decent look... 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 3/4/2023 at 7:49 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS continues ticking west...over cape, which is decent if there is a decent antecedent airmass. 

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EPS's 00z mean was definitively SE of the 12z mean early yesterday -

[MJO812]

Euro para with a transfer 

[Typhoon Tip]

I've asked Will to clean up the last 2 or so pages of this thread, which was started in good virtue and intent. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/4/2023 at 1:40 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

EPS's 00z mean was definitively SE of the 12z mean early yesterday -

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My bad...admittedly, I haven't been following that closely. 

Thanks.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/4/2023 at 1:51 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I've asked Will to clean up the last 2 or so pages of this thread, which was started in good virtue and intent. 

 

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Yeah just deleted about 20 posts. 
 

People can b**ch about this winter in any number of other threads that host that type of discourse. We don’t need to turn this one into another. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 3/4/2023 at 1:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My bad...admittedly, I haven't been following that closely. 

Thanks.

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It's alright ...

For those interested in actual substantive analysis ( or are even capable of cogency in that regard ..which frankly )

This signal is still precisely where it was in terms of robustness when this thread started. 

Before demoing why... many may want to re-read the opening missive?