Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man a bit more SE and it would nuke all. 

Yea…that’s a nasty wcb thump at hr120.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You'd probably get 8". 

Well this winter that’s great . This isn’t going to be a big storm so I’ll be happy with even a few 

[George001]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea but that’s a nasty wcb thump at hr120.

It snows east of the low on this run 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, George001 said:

It snows east of the low on this run 

[CoastalWx]

Meanwhile, that second storm look is what I like to see.

[Damage In Tolland]

There won’t be two . This will morph /evolve into one or the other 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meanwhile, that second storm look is what I like to see.

Nice western ridge on that one. 

[ROOSTA]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

It snows east of the low on this run 

Please STOP IT! 

Alot of things have to come together for it just to snow. Eventual track, timing, UL dynamics, think CLIMO. 

[Heisy]

Wow!



.

[NorEastermass128]

Double whammy?  

[George001]

Just now, ROOSTA said:

Please STOP IT! 

Alot of things have to come together for it just to snow. Eventual track, timing, UL dynamics, think CLIMO. 

I don’t think it’s actually going to happen that way, just saying that’s what the model shows verbatim. I would like to see the 500mb upper low cut off a bit se of where it currently is on the gfs.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There won’t be two . This will morph /evolve into one or the other 

There were in 56.  One moderate and one blockbuster.

[Heisy]

18z gfs few ticks away from being a HECS for storm 2, phases in just a touch late



.

[Heisy]

Nice western ridge on that one. 

The second event has better PNA domain setup like you mentioned. For you guys in storm 1 it’s hard for me to trust GFS with where the EPS is sitting right now. We’ll see where we stand by tomorrow


.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

There were in 56.  One moderate and one blockbuster.

2-3 days apart isn’t that weird at all. Esp for March with those blockier patterns and shorter wavelengths. 
 

Now if they were 24 hours apart it would be much harder. 

[George001]

968mb offshore for the second low. A bit too offshore this run but the setup looks promising.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

The second event has better PNA domain setup like you mentioned. For you guys in storm 1 it’s hard for me to trust GFS with where the EPS is sitting right now. We’ll see where we stand by tomorrow


.

 

Has big potential and I like it

but to ignore the models bias to over do western heights  day 8 related to Nina base state has caused lots of disappointment  , doesn’t mean it has to but a reason to be cautious in addition to the time frame 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2-3 days apart isn’t that weird at all. Esp for March with those blockier patterns and shorter wavelengths. 
 

Now if they were 24 hours apart it would be much harder. 

Yeah it’s not like one wave will vaporize.  It may be 2 near misses, an ots amd a cutter, but 2 decent systems within 500 miles of us in mid March happens a lot.

[Heisy]

Let’s see how the western heights adjust with the Nina background state as go from 8 days out to 5

That’s what I was wondering. If the PAC can just slow down a little bit for storm two the main wave could have phased sooner. Just rooting for one of these to be a chase-worthy event, I don’t have an inch of snow this year in Philly


.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

Has big potential and I like it

but to ignore the models bias to over do western heights  day 8 related to Nina base state has caused lots of disappointment  , doesn’t mean it has to but a reason to be cautious in addition to the time frame 

Agree but good thing nina is fading. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I’m hoping the GEFS or cmc or something comes toward the gfs for Saturday . Nice warning event for some and it could tickle south 

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

There were in 56.  One moderate and one blockbuster.

But is this .. that?

[Typhoon Tip]

At this point ...I'd be willing to dump the first pass at this 10th thru ides period in lieu of that 2nd system...

The 00z CFS, the 12z Euro and this 18z GFS show the immense, and probably. ... greater potential actually exists for that 14/15th attempt. Unfortunately for now...we're still spraying bombs

By the way, the 18z was 6 to 8 dm shallower with the 500 mb core on the first way, which "might" be a sign of things to come.

The overall issue is that this is pattern modeled is Nitro and the handling is very delicate or   -

[Typhoon Tip]

Perhaps we could be serviced with a minor to low end moderate impact on the 11th/12th ... that slabs in a crucial cold insert on the backside and the sky stays cloudy in the interim - like between the sisters of Dec 96

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gefs is weaker and se from 12z with a flatter rockies ridge indicating a clear move to the uk/euro/cmc camp.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gefs is weaker and se from 12z with a flatter rockies ridge indicating a clear move to the uk/euro/cmc camp.

Hate to see it 

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gefs is weaker and se from 12z with a flatter rockies ridge indicating a clear move to the uk/euro/cmc camp.

Maybe it’s deferring to the second potential? Maybe that’s the important one now?  Lots of moving parts here. Exciting, but high risk too. We could end up with zilch from all this. Or it could be quite the couple weeks. 

[tavwtby]

51 minutes ago, weathafella said:

There were in 56.  One moderate and one blockbuster.

didn't we also have something similar in March of 18? a smaller event followed by a bigger event a couple days later? I may be wrong on the year but it was within the last few years

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

didn't we also have something similar in March of 18? a smaller event followed by a bigger event a couple days later? I may be wrong on the year but it was within the last few years

Mar 2nd and Mar 3-4th 2019. At least here. We had a 3-6er little critter, then 36 hours later we had the 10-15 4"/hr wet snow overnight bomb. 

I just went back and looked at the maps. Seems your area only got 1.5" ish first storm, and 6" the second so you didn't do so well. 

Mar 2018 was the epic "1 nor'easter per week" where we got 4 nor'easters all separated by about a week. 

Mar 2nd - far interior and far west CT 3-8" everyone else rain

Mar 8th - whole CT wet snow bomb 6-28"

Mar 13-14th - east bomb with a hole in the 91 area W CT warning snow, E CT 12-24"

Mar 22nd - coastal scraper, bust, 3-6 S CT and 1-3 N CT

[HoarfrostHubb]

Pivotal GFS OP clown gives me 27"

 

That would leave a mark...next