Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

33 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I'm down to one last tap....and the last hand is already close to the mat at the moment, sheesh...My equation for this season has been simple, take the model that produces the least amount of snow and it will be correct for SWCT

Don’t sweat it bud, we’ll get crushed with deform rains in Hatepril.

[Hoth]

49 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not bad.

Just another mule kick to the nards for SCT.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The trends were good on the others.  Imo, the Euro doesn’t deserve that type of credit anymore.  If all the other trends were bad, and the Euro was good, how would we feel?  Imo, things are looking decent. We track. 
 

Trends through 84hrs we’re definitely better on all guidance, the divergence started after that. Onto 18z…

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Trends through 84hrs we’re definitely better on all guidance, the divergence started after that. Onto 18z…

Agreed.
 

Final outcome on Ops isn’t important as of yet. 

[weathafella]

I remind everyone again that March of 1956 played out similarly to what is being depicted in the delayed but not denied camp.

[codfishsnowman]

At least it's something to watch

[MaineJayhawk]

Looks good to me

 

LFG!

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So are we back to tossing euro , Or is this where some want it 

I always toss the Euro at this time frame. In fairness I toss most others too. Just looking at trends at this distance. If it still looks like something this time on Wednesday then I'll be more interested

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I always toss the Euro at this time frame. In fairness I toss most others too. Just looking at trends at this distance. If it still looks like something this time on Wednesday then I'll be more interested

Yes, the trends are what is important. And today at 12z the trends were good. 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro/EPS trend wasn't very good, but as long as it doesn't keep moving that way at 00z, I'm not really inclined to buy a full-on whiff for storm #1 yet. Could easily come back north a bit which certainly wouldn't be unusual this season.

But that isn't really what I was looking for from that suite at 12z....it's not on an island either.

[ORH_wxman]

I also think there's two issues that I wasn't clear on above....the trend out west got better on all the guidance. We saw more wave spacing than on the 00z runs.

However, some of the guidance like the Euro and GGEM got blockier out east which shunted the system south of us so we weren't able to take advantage of the better trends out west for the 3/11 threat.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I also think there's two issues that I wasn't clear on above....the trend out west got better on all the guidance. We saw more wave spacing than on the 00z runs.

However, some of the guidance like the Euro and GGEM got blockier out east which shunted the system south of us so we weren't able to take advantage of the better trends out west for the 3/11 threat.

That’s how I see it. The blockier solutions also seem to favor a perfectly timed lobe pinwheeling on the backside of the departing 50/50 low which isn’t in an ideal spot to begin with for suppression but it manages to shunt the system into bermuda anyway.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Blizzard.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Not bad.

Ha....better shot of Harv coming out of retirement to coanchor with George.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I could be wrong, but this is the vort I saw that acts to strengthen the confluence on the backside of the 50/50. In other views, you can see it dive SE stretching the low heights SW instead of wrapping to the east. 
 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

EPS looks like ass.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS looks like ass.

Not all asses are the same though?

[weathafella]

When I think back to 56, it's amazing in that there were no sattelites, they did have radar but it was rudimentary and not widely used outside of hurricanes, NWP was plots and the mathematics were not computer enhanced.  I guess that's why the big event on 3/18/56 came with no advanced warning.   Some flurries flying by as my mother gave me lunch and I had my eyes glued on the window.  I turned on the radio and the forecast was 1-2 inches.  After lunch I took my sled to the hilly street with all the other kids in the neighborhood-picture the large number of 8-10 year old boomers.  The snow from the event 2 days prior was still quite good for sledding.  We didn't notice the fact that snow was increasing and as it was starting to get dark, everyone's mom came out to make us all go home-I guess at that point NWS (then the Weather Bureau) realized it was going to be much bigger than originally expected.  As we were reluctantly trudging home with our moms I looked up and realized it was starting to snow pretty hard.   The next morning was literally a raging blizzard with snow caked on houses and drifts exceeding 10 feet.  One of my all timers for sure.  

Now we have so much better technology but it's tough to get it at day 5-6 still.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

EPS looking like sag ass has to have MANY concerned… 

Hi, myself not concerned at all. No matter what happens. As far as I'm concerned, this winter's over. If we get a blizzard or a big snowstorm, then yes, I'll be on board and joining the conversation. But I really can care less one way or the other at this point. I do have to laugh at some people on this forum though, they live and die by the models.  Even now at this point of the season, like it's the end of the world. It is kind of funny. Lol

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Hi, myself not concerned at all. No matter what happens. As far as I'm concerned, this winter's over. If we get a blizzard or a big snowstorm, then yes, I'll be on board and joining the conversation. But I really can care less one way or the other at this point. I do have to laugh at some people on this forum though, they live and die by the models.  Even now at this point of the season, like it's the end of the world. It is kind of funny. Lol

I get it, but I would argue the exact opposite. It’s precisely because we are at this point of the season with very little to show that peeps are highly invested in a potential that could possibly be redeeming. That’s why I’m personally in the HECS or bust camp. If it’s not gonna be historic IMBY, it’s over and I’m fine with that… But I am 

[ORH_wxman]

Keep this thread clean and on topic. This is an actual storm thread....we have a banter thread

[George001]

Gfs looks like it’s going to be more north. It isn’t digging as much with the energy.

[CoastalWx]

GFS into CT lol. Clobbers CNE.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs is worlds apart from uk/euro/cmc with icon in the middle for a big sne hit. ..so we’ll go with that.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS into CT lol. Clobbers CNE.

Actually turns out pretty good out this way lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Great run for all of SNE away from SE MA

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Great run for all of SNE away from SE MA

You'd probably get 8". 

[George001]

Gfs was actually better than 12z, low location a bit more se, not north like I thought it would be. Thermals improved enough that even my area would get a decent amount of snow.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Great run for all of SNE away from SE MA

 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Great run for all of SNE away from SE MA

Looking at the thermals I think it may be LBSW?

[CoastalWx]

Man a bit more SE and it would nuke all.