Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[George001]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

For sure! 

Yep, great trends today.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Ukie just where we want it at this lead.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Ukie just where we want it at this lead.

At the bar?

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gefs looks awesome. 

Yeah...Brooklyn' already commented - or someone did back a ways... But that was a huge lurch into a predominant lead impulse as taking the show. 

There's been wave space/negative interference - I suspect all along now that I'm seeing it actually. Look back, it's probably more culprit in why we haven't seen a more coherent materialization of this overall threat period, sooner - ...speculative. 

But showing the immense potential of bringing a match to a gas fight ... the slightest gap introduced between the two wave spaces vying for proxy on this sub-index scaled tussle (just meaning the actual S/W interactions), and look what happens to the GEF mean?

If this comes in just a little more amp ... and were to evolve UNDER Long Island ( which it is damn close to doing...), this becomes more than a medium impact event with very quick correction

[Typhoon Tip]

One aspect I'd watch ... ( related to the 'under L.I.' precarious set up )

Pay attention to the fact that the spread is around the W-NW arc of this mean... with some deeper members ...

Firstly, what an impressive correction toward greater amplitude this was ... But, this means there are probably some members with more deep layer trough descending bottoming out along that thinking

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...Brooklyn' already commented - or someone did back a ways... But that was a huge lurch into a predominant lead impulse as taking the show. 

There's been wave space/negative interference - I suspect all along now that I'm seeing it actually. Look back, it's probably more culprit in why we haven't seen a more coherent materialization of this overall threat period, sooner - ...speculative. 

But showing the immense potential of bringing a match to a gas fight ... the slightest gap introduced between the two wave spaces vying for proxy on this sub-index scaled tussle (just meaning the actual S/W interactions), and look what happens to the GEF mean?

If this comes in just a little more amp ... and were to evolve UNDER Long Island ( which it is damn close to doing...), this becomes more than a medium impact event with very quick correction

Thanks. If euro/eps follow suit, I’m all in.   Not necessarily for own my backyard burial but more-so for a big event for some parts of the region, details tbd. And at this stage of the season that wasn’t, there’s nothing to lose from shoving whatever chips we have remaining into the middle. 

[Kitz Craver]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Super rare for it not to vary a lot over a weeks time. Many big ones have faded, and went to garbage in the midterm…not uncommon at all. In fact more common than not. 

I understand. What I’m saying is, in seasons of yore it seemed as though in the lead up to some of the biggins we were all slapping weenies in D-drip ecstasy as run after run was a virtual burial leading up to verification. Im well aware of the “peek-a-boo” disappearance of storms and reappearance phenomenon. However this particular season we have witnessed a steadfast trend for threats to unravel leading up to go time, sans 1 event if I recall correctly. Now that I’m seeing the trough out west re-establishing itself and the +PNA fading and it kind of kicking the shortwave out too quickly, I’m not sure the HECS result in sensible weather outcomes comes back for us in peek-a-boo fashion. Certainly could snow and probably will, but if it’s not wrapped up coastal with wind, good rates etc, I’m all set with anything else that falls short of this.

[Whineminster]

Goal posts narrowed today significantly. 

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

There's more to winter forecasting than the 540 line.

I haven't worried about the 540 line since Will was teaching me how to do keg stands in Ithaca.

[Kitz Craver]

Lol, now the ridge comes back…

[NorEastermass128]

WoR crowd rejoicing. Let’s tick this east a bit. Let’s get everyone in on the game. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

WoR crowd rejoicing. Let’s tick this east a bit. Let’s get everyone in on the game. 

It's only the GFS that tucked it....we have 2 whiffs southeast this 12z suite too (Ukie/GGEM)....There's still plenty of variance in model solutions at the moment despite getting a little bit more clarity in the past 12-24 hours.

[SnoSki14]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's only the GFS that tucked it....we have 2 whiffs southeast this 12z suite too (Ukie/GGEM)....There's still plenty of variance in model solutions at the moment despite getting a little bit more clarity in the past 12-24 hours.

The SE tracks have some merit due to the confluence up north. 

If this really digs then I could see a secondary transfer off the Delmarva with it skirting more ENE. 

That's what the GEFS show

[CoastalWx]

Euro grinding this to a pulp.

[ORH_wxman]

I'll be shocked if the Euro doesn't whiff southeast this run...looks super compressed/blocky.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Looks like the cmc. 

[Typhoon Tip]

heh..the 00z CFS model was something else with the 2nd wave ( 14th) ...

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Maybe the euro is broken and they should just re run it at 12z and see what solution it spits out this time?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

So are we back to tossing euro , Or is this where some want it 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It’s trying to nuke a mon/tue deal now.

[JKEisMan]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Maybe the euro is broken and they should just re run it at 12z and see what solution it spits out this time?

Probably realized it wasn’t enough of a dr no, so reiniting to totally squash hopes.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s trying to nuke a mon/tue deal now.

Yeah it's going to try and amplify the trailing energy now that round 1 was pretty weak.

[CoastalWx]

Ha little nuke. Some rain to paste here verbatim.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's going to try and amplify the trailing energy now that round 1 was pretty weak.

There’s been some hints of that across multiple guidance. Funny how the euro matches the cmc on both too.

[CoastalWx]

It looks like a meso vort amid the larger trough from the west moving in. So weird.

[CoastalWx]

LOL NE MA to NH and western/southwestern Maine obliterated. 

[WinterWolf]

Doesn’t make it wrong…but it’s the outlier as of now. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Hooked back into the GOM at 216hr to crush east zones. I’m tapping out for the season if WCT misses both.

[Typhoon Tip]

guys, ... the 00z CFS ?

haha... I mean it's not really a deterministic guidance type. No.   But it was all about the 2nd wave

[dendrite]

Anyone like chicken parm?