Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm a lot more interested in H5 than the sfc presentation at the moment anyway....we know how the skill degrades on model guidance as we go toward the sfc...esp further out in time.

Well, of course… I’m a bigger fan of that tact. However, so long as people are “considering“ the icon solution, I’m just informing that the sfc is a piece of shit at least comparatively. But like you said the 500 mb and I also agree, because I pointed that out myself is like phenomenal. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Good.

Why good sir 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Why good sir 

It improved at h5, all that matters. And the last thing anyone wants is to be crushed by the canadian at d5.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs is better at h5 thru 84. Honestly, that’s all I want to see today. What happens after that, especially at the surface, is not a priority besides a few mins of a virtual rub and tug.

[brooklynwx99]

GFS making the same changes. awesome 12z suite so far

[SouthCoastMA]

Yeah latest trend on GFS is to prop up that Rockies ridge a bit more. Will it stick

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’m not completely surprised we’ve had a mediocre winter. As others have mentioned we were/are due for a “regression to the mean”. I was getting 1-2 foot storms multiple times a season and I knew that wasn’t typical for here 

I'd love a mediocre winter.   Unfortunately it's been several grades below so far imby.

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs is better at h5 thru 84. Honestly, that’s all I want to see today. What happens after that, especially at the surface, is not a priority besides a few mins of a virtual rub and tug.

Underrated part of winter, especially shitty ones. 

[ORH_wxman]

This will be a big interior hit this run...kind of tucky...but obviously we're not worried about details yet. I like the ridge trend this run out west.

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Dendrite.

[HoarfrostHubb]

987 surface low just north of NYC  

[George001]

Good run

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Chickens wearing snorkels.. 

[CoastalWx]

Tucky tucky. 

 

Heck of a s/w though, but that definitely is more of a far interior look verbatim.

[brooklynwx99]

the trend is the most important part here IMO, not the end result... the GFS and CMC have been moving towards the ECMWF for a while, hopefully they completely cave at the surface soon. the ENS will be very interesting

[George001]

The 540 line is pretty far se, even on the warmest frame. That’s a big hit just off the coast.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, George001 said:

The 540 line is pretty far se, even on the warmest frame. That’s a big hit just off the coast.

There's more to winter forecasting than the 540 line.

[SouthCoastMA]

The GFS strengthens the primary around OV more than CMC and Euro, which are about 10mb weaker. 

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie having the same trend out west. Clearly this is something all 12z guidance sees. Every single model at 12z has had the same trend out west of amplifying that ridge a little more with a bit more wave spacing. That is good because it increases the upside in this storm if we're looking for a big dog.

(the storm actually whiffs us south on the Ukie...but that is mostly irrelevant at the moment)

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the trend is the most important part here IMO, not the end result... the GFS and CMC have been moving towards the ECMWF for a while, hopefully they completely cave at the surface soon. the ENS will be very interesting

Yes sir.  Ignore the surface at the moment…the take away is there’s been(significant) improvement, and the potential is there for something substantial.  Good 12z suite so far, and that’s all we can ask for at this juncture.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie having the same trend out west. Clearly this is something all 12z guidance sees. Every single model at 12z has had the same trend out west of amplifying that ridge a little more with a bit more wave spacing. That is good because it increases the upside in this storm if we're looking for a big dog.

(the storm actually whiffs us south on the Ukie...but that is mostly irrelevant at the moment)

Ukie looked promising early going from VA coast and curled NE as it deepened rapidly than it pushes ESE .. what is it related to H5 that makes the Ukie do that as opposed to the other guidance at 12z 

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie having the same trend out west. Clearly this is something all 12z guidance sees. Every single model at 12z has had the same trend out west of amplifying that ridge a little more with a bit more wave spacing. That is good because it increases the upside in this storm if we're looking for a big dog.

(the storm actually whiffs us south on the Ukie...but that is mostly irrelevant at the moment)

yeah, this is pretty striking from an ENS mean in the short to medium range. perhaps the Pacific is getting resolved in the way we want

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ukie looked promising early going from VA coast and curled NE as it deepened rapidly than it pushes ESE .. what is it related to H5 that makes the Ukie do that as opposed to the other guidance at 12z 

Well the GGEM did something similar...its the inability for the shortwave/ULL to produce sufficient downstream ridging to curl this thing northward....look at the heights on the eastern fringe there...they are going south in Maine and trying to go north near ACK....they can't get any further north because of that confluence. Need just a little more room.

 

[CoastalWx]

We'll take the GEFS.

[CoastalWx]

Seems like the GEFS continue to height raising over the Rockies to force a deeper s/w.

[kdxken]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There's more to winter forecasting than the 540 line.

We can make our own cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, this is pretty striking from an ENS mean in the short to medium range. perhaps the Pacific is getting resolved in the way we want

Well, I said last night that I wanted to see this trend reverse today, and that's what has happened. Wouldn't have felt good if it looked like shit approaching 4 days.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

We can make our own cold.

I think we’ve worn that one out…

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gefs looks awesome. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gefs looks awesome. 

For sure!