Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So the models may have overdone western ridging For a few runs over a week out ..in a year with them continually having too high heights in SW at 7-10 day lead times related to general Nina influences . And now small differences in what’s left of a modeled PNA could determine if this is a solid moderate event or perhaps less 

This seems to be a cogent and valid impression of where things stand at this time, yup.

I would caution, however, that it's not too late for amplitude to return.  There's a pattern change really that is multi-dimensional.   It's not just the immediate correction of the -PNA as it quickly rises over 5 days to 0 or even modest positive ( as well as the west (geographic) fade of the -NAO block...etc etc), but a very fast equatorial SST correciton and SOI reversal, combined with a unfurling of the powerful MJO wave space that is in 8 ... these are more indirect, these latter indicators, and they really should correlate better to a western N/A ridge response - it's certainly not harming the prospects...

Lest we forget ... how often aspects can look rather dreary when relaying from the extended into the middle range for a stint.  It's all 5 to 6 days away. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

For me, west of 495 and there be dragons. I’d be salivating up in NNE. Chicken coups will be indistinguishable from the Tahoe pictures in the other thread. 

Interior and EOR is best for the weekend. Next week is tbd but I’d favor CNE+ as the block decays along with a pna spike. 
 

The pattern should produce but some areas will get skunked. Thems the breaks.

[Cyclone-68]

I’m not completely surprised we’ve had a mediocre winter. As others have mentioned we were/are due for a “regression to the mean”. I was getting 1-2 foot storms multiple times a season and I knew that wasn’t typical for here 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’m not completely surprised we’ve had a mediocre winter. As others have mentioned we were/are due for a “regression to the mean”. I was getting 1-2 foot storms multiple times a season and I knew that wasn’t typical for here 

Make sure you tell Brett. WTTTE.  It sucks, but it happens. And we are probably due for more regression.

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Interior and EOR is best for the weekend. Next week is tbd but I’d favor CNE+ as the block decays along with a pna spike. 
 

The pattern should produce but some areas will get skunked. Thems the breaks.

I love snow as much as the rest, but at this point as terrible as this winter has been combined with the warm sun and singing birds this morning...I am ok with being skunked.

This entire winter, we have had 1 model cycle look good here and there, followed by 50 lessons on how not to snow for the WOR crowd. This one has followed the same script, even when it has snowed it has underperformed. Persistence I guess....

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Make sure you tell Brett. WTTTE.  It sucks, but it happens. And we are probably due for more regression.

This place would build so much character if we could have 2 of the next 3 winters be similar 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I love snow as much as the rest, but at this point as terrible as this winter has been combined with the warm sun and singing birds this morning...I am ok with being skunked.

This entire winter, we have had 1 model cycle look good here and there, followed by 50 lessons on how not to snow for the WOR crowd. This one has followed the same script, even when it has snowed it has underperformed. Persistence I guess....

I’m not folding for WOR though, especially inland. Pattern looks loaded with chances but yea I get…it’s just that…until it materializes. 

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Interior and EOR is best for the weekend. Next week is tbd but I’d favor CNE+ as the block decays along with a pna spike. 
 

The pattern should produce but some areas will get skunked. Thems the breaks.

I don’t think we know a whole lot yet. If anybody thought this was gonna keep a big dog look for 6-7 days, they were on shrooms.  We’re approaching the mid range and it’s doing what always happens…it’s trying to figure out what ultimately happens. It could comeback to something major, or it could follow the tenor, and deamplify to nothing.  
 

Things are evolving and trending, and I honestly don’t think we know how this ultimately plays out yet, and what wave becomes dominant,  if any? 

[UnitedWx]

16 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’m not completely surprised we’ve had a mediocre winter. As others have mentioned we were/are due for a “regression to the mean”. I was getting 1-2 foot storms multiple times a season and I knew that wasn’t typical for here 

Yes! A voice of reason amongst the scattered weenies. I'm glad I'm not the only one who realizes this. NOT so glad I'm now old enough to remember winters worse than this...

[Whineminster]

It's mid morch, that's the time for the El's and the up and in crowd to shine.  The flatlanders have missed their chance. 

[George001]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Make sure you tell Brett. WTTTE.  It sucks, but it happens. And we are probably due for more regression.

Regression? The post 2016 period has been quite mild with below average snow. With our warming base state we may as well embrace it, as in the long term our climate isn’t getting colder and snowier. That said, this doesn’t mean we can’t get big winters anymore.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, George001 said:

Regression? The post 2016 period has been quite mild with below average snow. With our warming base state we may as well embrace it, as in the long term our climate isn’t getting colder and snowier. That said, this doesn’t mean we can’t get big winters anymore.

The only real below normal season for snow was 19-20. Yes it has been mild. 

[CoastalWx]

Speaking for this area. 

[ROOSTA]

Fighting against the oncoming Seasonal change. Time is also the enemy as the window closes. 

I remember April 1st vividly living in Everett MA. How rare that was... took a personal day off as to not commute to Waltham. Went to bed around 2am at the time only a couple of inches thinking that one more shaft-job. Awoke around 10 the sliding glass doors were covered over. Buried under an 8' drift- good ole basement garden apartment. Between 2 and 10am the rates had to be 6''/hr. 20 something inches fell in an 8-hour timeframe.

Just one this year for you guys! 

[Kitz Craver]

Ugh, not into the loss of the big dawg look. If it’s gonna be mediocre, who the F cares at this point.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The only real below normal season for snow was 19-20. Yes it has been mild. 

I’ve been below normal the past two seasons. In fact this year I am already ahead of last year’s totals.

I think when we talk about regression WNE and ENY were already dealing with a bunch of below normal seasons.  It’s been SE NE that was way above normal. 

[BombsAway1288]

32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t think we know a whole lot yet. If anybody thought this was gonna keep a big dog look for 6-7 days, they were on shrooms.  We’re approaching the mid range and it’s doing what always happens…it’s trying to figure out what ultimately happens. It could comeback to something major, or it could follow the tenor, and deamplify to nothing.  
 

Things are evolving and trending, and I honestly don’t think we know how this ultimately plays out yet, and what wave becomes dominant,  if any? 

Thing is I think we all really know how this is eventually gonna play out. Something in the atmosphere will stop this storm from becoming reality. It has all season so there’s no reason to think otherwise  

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’ve been below normal the past two seasons. In fact this year I am already ahead of last year’s totals.

I think when we talk about regression WNE and ENY were already dealing with a bunch of below normal seasons.  It’s been SE NE that was way above normal. 

Yeah I posted after that I was speaking for this area which includes Foxboro where George is. 18-19 and 20-21 were closer to avg here. This season by far is the worst since 2012, and I think right on par with it around here. So we were due for a true stinker.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Ugh, not into the loss of the big dawg look. If it’s gonna be mediocre, who the F cares at this point.

Nothing is off the table. The big dog look was never gonna hold for 7 days lol. I don’t understand some folks logic?
 

 This could still be a big dog. The ingredients are there. Or it could be not much/mediocre at best.

Lots of moving pieces to resolve. We’ve warned folks about just this occurring, but yet the same shit happens every single threat.  
 

Sut back and watch the model theater..that’s the best advice. Lots of twists and turns to come. 

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

It's mid morch, that's the time for the El's and the up and in crowd to shine.  The flatlanders have missed their chance. 

Dumb post! 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

The poor girls just wanna have fun

Last pile just melted from last week. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I posted after that I was speaking for this area which includes Foxboro where George is. 18-19 and 20-21 were closer to avg here. This season by far is the worst since 2012, and I think right on par with it around here. So we were due for a true stinker.

Got it.  I was actually a little shocked to look back and see that last year was so bad here.   Obviously Dave and people at elevation have done better this year.  Definitely overdue for a good year here though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Make sure you tell Brett. WTTTE.  It sucks, but it happens. And we are probably due for more regression.

Not my area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nothing is off the table. The big dog look was never gonna hold for 7 days lol. I don’t understand some folks logic?
 

 This could still be a big dog. The ingredients are there. Or it could be not much/mediocre at best.

Lots of moving pieces to resolve. We’ve warned folks about just this occurring, but yet the same shit happens every single threat.  
 

Sut back and watch the model theater..that’s the best advice. Lots of twists and turns to come. 

I'd be shocked at this point if things trend back to a KU. I think that ship has sailed. Again, I get all of the caveats regarding how far out it is, anything can happen, insert cliche...blah, blah.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I love the guy from the epicenter of the KU orgy last several years telling everyone else how they are due for less snow. Apparently I need to a full decade without approaching normal...maybe sacrsrice a few showshovels to the oes gods.

[ORH_wxman]

Taken with a grain of salt for now...but the trend of the JV models at 12z seems to be burying the trailing energy offshore a little west which is helping the ridging in between the two. We'll see if the varsity team follows suit.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love how the AEMATT crew AKA the KU orgy of the last 9 years are telling everyone else  (especially us WESTERN CT snow deprived weenies) how they are due for less snow. 

Fixed it lol 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love the guy from the epicenter of the KU orgy last several years telling everyone else how they are due for less snow. Apparently I need to a full decade without approaching normal...maybe sacrsrice a few showshovels to the oes gods.

Dude. Did you read my posts??

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Taken with a grain of salt for now...but the trend of the JV models at 12z seems to be burying the trailing energy offshore a little west which is helping the ridging in between the two. We'll see if the varsity team follows suit.

yup, ICON was a pretty nice improvement

[CoastalWx]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Speaking for this area. 

Hey Ray. Get some glasses.