Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[CoastalWx]

Going to phase 7-8-1-2 next few weeks.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

How fitting for this winter to have two seemingly favorable months Dec & March only to both be bookended by a huge Midwest cutter

Gotta just laugh at some point. 

Went from offshore to central PA to Chicago in just a few runs. This solution would be nice and toasty verbatim.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

How fitting for this winter to have two seemingly favorable months Dec & March only to both be bookended by a huge Midwest cutter

Gotta just laugh at some point. 

Thank god we had the block, or else it may have tracked through Colorado.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Going to phase 7-8-1-2 next few weeks.

Let’s see if we can go until mid April before hitting 60 again. 

[WinterWolf]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cosgrove thinks the 3/11 system will cut into W NYS, kill the block like the Buff blizzard and end winter.  Good news is he's been wrong all season.

Nothing wrong with that too…then we’re out of this hell. So either way we win. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s see if we can go until mid April before hitting 60 again. 

Weeklies pretty much cancel through that time. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If that ever happened, this would have to be a record season for the most useless NAO blocks imaginable. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not actually sure on the MJO's input ...

I realize it's surging into Phase 7--> 8 as we type, but it only spends an intra-weekly time span in that space before all the guidance contributing to the RMM are showing it nose diving toward the lower skill momentum ... It never really gets through 8, into 1

It may just be an artifact of a new emergent wave momentum/propagation, it may start 'unfurling' ... But until that's indicated, the current outlook smacks as still kind of running into some sort of broadly destructive interference.  

It's about momentum.  If the wave does not spend much time in the total 8-1-2 region, it's total integration is weak --> implies less coherency.  One would think anyway.  No where else in dynamic physical nature is Newton's First Law, 'An object at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force,' better demonstrated than by atmospheric mechanics.  Namely...pattern/Rosby dispersion.  If the MJO is insufficient to act on the on-going regime,  ... it doesn't act on the on-going regime.  It's actually remarkably simple. 

Anyway, with that conceptual shit in mind... I just need the wave presentation to look less weird like these big curlycues

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not actually sure on the MJO's input ...

I realize it's surging into Phase 7--> 8 as we type, but it only spends an intra-weekly time span in that space before all the guidance contributing to the RMM are showing it nose diving toward the lower skill momentum ... It never really gets through 8, into 1

It may just be an artifact of a new emergent wave momentum/propagation,  but that smacks as still kind of running into some sort to broadly destructive interference.   It may start 'unfurling' ...

It's about momentum.  If the wave does not spend much time in the total 8-1-2 region, it's total integration is weak --> implies less coherency.  One would think anyway.  No where else in dynamic physical nature is Newton's First Law, 'An object at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force,' better demonstrated than by atmospheric mechanics.  Namely...pattern/Rosby dispersion.  If the MJO is insufficient to act on the on-going regime,  ... it doesn't act on the on-going regime.  It's actually remarkably simple. 

Anyway, with that conceptual shit in mind... I just need the wave presentation to look less weird like these big curlycues

Just going by the VP200, looks like it may swing towards P1. Looks unusually quick to do so, maybe it's CCKW driven? It also may evolve slower.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone bothered to analyze how the current OP consensus manages to stuff our collective orifice with cosmic dildo this go around? I haven't looked at how they arrive at that cutter during what was thought be a favorable stretch. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone bothered to analyze how the current OP consensus manages to stuff our collective orifice with cosmic dildo this go around? I haven't looked at how they arrive at that cutter during what was thought be a favorable stretch. 

S/w dives out west to the 4-corners, block forms, but no confluence to our north. Or very little.  Where have we seen that?

 

But, GEFS are much further east.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nothing wrong with that too…then we’re out of this hell. So either way we win. 

The funny thing is if the Euro verified it would likely reinforce arctic blocking guaranteeing everyone a chilly early spring. 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If that ever happened, this would have to be a record season for the most useless NAO blocks imaginable. 

The Nina forcing & the dreadful Pacific have been killer all season. Thank your lucky stars for every inch you received. 

On a positive note it is one op run past day 5 so a lot can change. Additionally your area could score on a little clipper before that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone bothered to analyze how the current OP consensus manages to stuff our collective orifice with cosmic dildo this go around? I haven't looked at how they arrive at that cutter during what was thought be a favorable stretch. 

It's unfortunately ...

                  ... not impossible.

However, I personally can only offer that beyond D7... particularly 216 hours, the Euro tends to shorten the longitude of wave lengths while increasing the total curved nature of the flow.  Meridian biased ... 

It used to be more obvious years ago. But that gobbled up super massive Sagitarius *A star black hole of a vortex, 400,000,000 times the mass of the sun and parking it over Dubuque Iowa like that strikes me as the Euro buckin' for enough curvature to bend the arms of the Milky Way Galaxy.

But that's hardly the thesis intro to a scientific paper, huh -

[ORH_wxman]

Cutter is def possible. Just less likely than background state when you have a west based block. 
 

My recommendation (which will go unheeded, who am I kidding? lol) is to not really look at any OP runs beyond D6-7 during all of this. Stick to the ensembles and watch the clusters. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's unfortunately ...

                  ... not impossible.

However, I personally can only offer that beyond D7... particularly 216 hours, the Euro tends to shorten the longitude of wave lengths while increasing the total curved nature of the flow.  Meridian biased ... 

It used to be more obvious years ago. But that gobbled up super massive Sagitarius *A star black hole of a vortex, 400,000,000 times the mass of the sun and parking it over Dubuque Iowa like that strikes me as the Euro buckin' for enough curvature to bend the arms of the Milky Way Galaxy.

But that's hardly the thesis intro to a scientific paper, huh -

Not just the Euro, though...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Cutter is def possible. Just less likely than background state when you have a west based block. 
 

My recommendation (which will go unheeded, who am I kidding? lol) is to not really look at any OP runs beyond D6-7 during all of this. Stick to the ensembles and watch the clusters. 

I totally get it with ensembles...was just curious. 

[CoastalWx]

EPS would be a pretty good interior deal. Good high ahead of it. But, it did make a move west.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe Tip needs to elaborate. I'm not saying there won't be a ridge, but I don't think it gets much more amplitude than modeled. I took his post as saying guidance is underdoing it. Perhaps, but some of the other H5 features I think limit ridge amplitude. I could see a little more amplitude I suppose.

Sure... the following Mar 14 outlook by the GEFs mean qualifies an exceptional example of the 'AB' phase of the Pacific circulation mode taking over by then. That is big difference than what is occurring now, which looks more like this...

 

 

The AB phase below on Mar 14:  typically throws up higher heights down stream ... it's why and when the North Pacific is in the AB, that highly correlates to cold anomalies over N/A. 

 

 

Now, ...this particular AB construct that we see above only couples to modestly ridging down stream of a pretty impressive looking AB signal. That's perhaps correct-able in raising heights in future runs. 

But that said... there's no cooky cutter snap fit anything about this ( just speaking to the general audience here).  I would only argue the correction vector is higher heights over western N/A.  Also... I'm noticing the AB axis might be situated W  ... I'm like, what the f*k is up with this west biased shit this year. Jesus Christ... in any case, that's the first ( I have seen) AB synopsis, and given it is onsetting...that obviously enters uncertainty in either direction with exactly how the western N/A heights respond down stream.  They should ridge, teleconnectors are meant to be broken, it seems, as just a fantastically delicious aspect of CC too...  whole 'nother discussion. 

[WinterWolf]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I totally get it with ensembles...was just curious. 

At this point who really gives a flying fu*k.  I mean it would almost be unheard of to strike out on two fabulous patterns (this one is even better than December’s, and that one was pretty incredible) in one winter, but hey, we may just do it?   Amazing in and of itself.   
 

But it’s the amp happy Euro OP at 8 days out too…so take it with grain of salt.  As everybody knows, we’ll check the ensemble guidance as we move along. 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

At this point who really gives a flying fu*k.  I mean it would almost be unheard of to strike out on two fabulous patterns (this one is even better than December’s, and that one was pretty incredible) in one winter, but hey, we may just do it?   Amazing in and of itself.   
 

But it’s the amp happy Euro OP at 8 days out too…so take it with grain of salt.  As everybody knows, we’ll check the ensemble guidance as we move along. 

There will likely be more than one shot in this pattern. Obv big signal is there near 10th and just beyond but it looks pretty ripe for additional potential through the equinox anyway. 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

At this point who really gives a flying fu*k.  I mean it would almost be unheard of to strike out on two fabulous patterns (this one is even better than December’s, and that one was pretty incredible) in one winter, but hey, we may just do it?   Amazing in and of itself.   
 

But it’s the amp happy Euro OP at 8 days out too…so take it with grain of salt.  As everybody knows, we’ll check the ensemble guidance as we move along. 

this run's garbage now that I look it more fully...

 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There will likely be more than one shot in this pattern. Obv big signal is there near 10th and just beyond but it looks pretty ripe for additional potential through the equinox anyway. 

Wow…that’s pretty impressive.  Didn’t really realize that there was that big of a window. Interesting. Thanks for clarifying. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There will likely be more than one shot in this pattern. Obv big signal is there near 10th and just beyond but it looks pretty ripe for additional potential through the equinox anyway. 

Yes.

[Go Kart Mozart]

The Pope told you, ye of little faith!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

What a monster pattern. 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What a monster pattern. 

 

Damn old school maps haven’t seen those in awhile. 
 

congrats Dakotas on 18z gfs.  Going to be a lot of waffling until Monday probably.. 

[George001]

45 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Damn old school maps haven’t seen those in awhile. 
 

congrats Dakotas on 18z gfs.  Going to be a lot of waffling until Monday probably.. 

yeah, that’s a big jump NW on the gfs. Low in Wisconsin.

[SnoSki14]

52 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What a monster pattern. 

 

The next threat is turning to garbage real fast. 

[weathafella]

18z gfs shows how you can come up empty.  

[SouthCoastMA]

The GEFS mean and GFS OP are about 2000 miles apart