Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[Roger Smith]

Since it was discussed earlier, 1888 maps exist and could be considered broadly reliable given the grid of weather obs then available across North America and probably numerous ship reports in the Atlantic. Here's a link to Mar 4, 1888. From this you can navigate day by day to the time of the blizzard 11th-13th. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1888&maand=3&dag=4&uur=1800&nmaps=24&h=1

This is a brief summary of events: 

MAR 4 a strong arctic high is located near Ontario-Manitoba border. New England in a northerly flow behind departing low pressure near Newfoundland. Most of northern US covered by east to northeast flow from the 1045 mb high. 

MAR 5 Not much change, a weak low appears over Georgia. West coast appears to be in a moderately deep trough with low pressure q.s. near nw WA. 

MAR 6 All features slightly weaker again, but flow essentially unchanged. The weak GA low is suppressed to a position near northern Bahamas. 

MAR 7 As the low over western Atlantic continues to drift east, the northerly flow over New England develops a trough and the mid-continent ridge continues a slightly retrograde motion. Low pressure forming over Nevada as the Pacific milder air masses continue to be prevented from entering Pac NW or BC by easterly outflow from the SK-ND ridge (center of high has retreated to arctic source central n Canada to n Greenland). 

MAR 8 The mid-continent ridge splits to form a discrete 1035 mb high near Wisconsin. The trough in New England begins to fill slowly. Western low pressure around 995 mb near central-southern CO. Cool east-northeast flow into GOM. 

MAR 9 The arctic high now close to BUF, western low moving slowly east with an inverted trof to southern Manitoba. Has the look of a 1-3" snow event for western Lake Superior and Wisconsin regions. Any nucleus of eventual blizzard is probably east of BRO as 1005 mb wave at most.

MAR 10 Arctic high crests over New England at about 1035 mb. Low moves to near Chicago at about 1008 mb. Still not much development in GOM or east of FL. 

MAR 11 Rapid development as GL low deepens to near 1000 mb east of Lake Huron (18z) and GA-SC low starts to form. By 06z 12th, GL low has moved to eastern shore Hudson Bay and the southeastern US low has moved to east of Cape Hatteras at about 1000 mb. 

MAR 12 Coastal low undergoes rapid intensification east of Delmarva to south of Long Island, likely around 970 to 975 mb by about 18z and 970 mb by 00z 13th, south of Nantucket. 1035 mb high near northern Lake Huron.

MAR 13 Slowly filling low plods northeast past Cape Cod then east to east-southeast into 14th. 

(the outcome is well known of course, note that both NYC and Toronto had record low temperatures after the storm moved away, so this was pretty much the perfect evolution of bombing coastal low interacting with severe cold highs both ahead and following) 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

23 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Please tell me how this will be any different then the 10x's we've seen this modeled this "winter"

Have you and TFlizz been hanging out and drinking together?

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Have you and TFlizz been hanging out and drinking together?

?

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Have you and TFlizz been hanging out and drinking together?

Tblizz does not like regression. 

[JoeSnowBOS]

Love all the chatter here.  How about we wait until Wednesday before we consider this possibility?  All the maps/talk of rain/snow and track mean zero right now

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tblizz does not like regression. 

He does not like…anything?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Way too much optimism over a day 6-7 "who knows storm as modeled"

[Roger Smith]

Most of the significant historic March storms were coastal lows from the southeastern US, not coastal redevelopers. That includes 1888, 1914, 1956, 1958, 1960, also Apr 2-3 1915.  I found one that was more similar to what's being suggested for next weekend, and that was March 22-23 1967. Coastal redevelopment was working with an antecedent record cold high in that case. Similar comment for Apr 5-7 1982.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Damage in Taunton

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

Most of the significant historic March storms were coastal lows from the southeastern US, not coastal redevelopers. That includes 1888, 1914, 1956, 1958, 1960, also Apr 2-3 1915.  I found one that was more similar to what's being suggested for next weekend, and that was March 22-23 1967. Coastal redevelopment was working with an antecedent record cold high in that case. 

Superstorm 93 too but we’ve had good March snows from redevelopers as well. March18 is one example off the top.

[Damage In Tolland]

42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How long did it snow in 1888

In Nashua ? Not long 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Damage in Taunton

We Damage Inc.  It's mid-march and this "Winter" has shown modeling at day 6-7 is a farce. I'm out. Peace.

[Modfan2]

12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Way too much optimism over a day 6-7 "who knows storm as modeled"

Completely agree; if we are going by modeling at this range I should have close 80” of snow this season, but it’s closer to 10”.

Not saying we won’t be seeing a storm, I’m closing on 9” of precip since the beginning of the year; just not sold on a solid snow event until it happens.

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

Love all the chatter here.  How about we wait until Wednesday before we consider this possibility?  All the maps/talk of rain/snow and track mean zero right now

FJ!

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We Damage Inc.  It's mid-march and this "Winter" has shown modeling at day 6-7 is a farce. I'm out. Peace.

Probably will wind up being a nothingburger... but we are months away from severe threats or drought talk.

The models have been poop most of this winter

[DavisStraight]

29 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

Love all the chatter here.  How about we wait until Wednesday before we consider this possibility?  All the maps/talk of rain/snow and track mean zero right now

If we didn't chatter about the models and what they show what else would we be doing here?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In Nashua ? Not long 

Isn’t that the one where they caught great great great grandpappy Wood slant sticking and they banished him from the mastiff . 

[NorEastermass128]

Some good melts in here. I never “expect” anything from a D6 threat, especially on the coast. Even Hour 6 is a little iffy here most times. However, I do appreciate the chatter with some good analysis embedded within. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

If we didn't chatter about the models and what they show what else would we be doing here?

Whining about the models…

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Bob just needs to take a sip of the kali

 

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/8e82e0a5-0332-4da2-91c8-afcdea7243a1

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Isn’t that the one where they caught great great great grandpappy Wood slant sticking and they banished him from the mastiff . 

The Blue is for sale. Straight up truth. Can you get enough capital?

[CoastalWx]

Man Bob has lost it. Mr Dobalina, Mr Bob Dobalina.

[ROOSTA]

I hope you all get buried.
Must say it looks promising. ENS, ENS, ENS, watch how the models evolve to agreement or (DIS) agree.
Signal is strong, pattern conducive to something. Just another something to watch. SO MUCH FUN... 
An epic storm of Biblical proportions that's remembered for years to come, a new benchmark.

 

[SouthCoastMA]

this shit be flowing beneath the streets of Taunton, only explanation

[STILL N OF PIKE]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Blue is for sale. Straight up truth. Can you get enough capital?

If you paid your tab there , maybe they wouldn’t need to sell ?

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

this shit be flowing beneath the streets of Taunton, only explanation

He is Vigo! Ruler of the world. 
 

 

[512high]

Its Sunday night in here lol...WTF

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mr Boob Droopalina?

I think you and runnaway are the only ones who get our old school references. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think you and runnaway are the only ones who get our old school references. 

It’s you , me, and I get the impression 512 from NH does 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man Bob has lost it. Mr Dobalina, Mr Bob Dobalina.

I don’t think he’s the one who’s lost it