Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Still a good run for SNE too?

He’s in SE MA so for us over the interior, we don’t count. 

[George001]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Still a good run for SNE too?

Those maps are a lot snowier than the ones on tropical tidbits. Regardless, looks really good at h5. The key takeaway this far out is we have an active period coming up with multiple chances.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I don't even know what's being discussed in here.  I don't see a discrete signal on a specific 1-2 day period.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I don't even know what's being discussed in here.  I don't see a discrete signal on a specific 1-2 day period.

Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I don't even know what's being discussed in here.  I don't see a discrete signal on a specific 1-2 day period.

Pretty much. It’s a couple of sigmas over like a 5 day period.

The treat that produces this run is literally day 10

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Something’s brewing

Beer is

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Still a good run for SNE too?

That’s kind of trending towards an 1888 look if you crane your neck . 

[CoastalWx]

The GEFs look better than the op for the day 6.5 deal.  I wouldn’t call it a classic look on the gfs suite of guidance. At least at H5. It’s an elongated s/w and not a concise powerhouse of a s/w that are classics feature. But, could still be a large event.  The EPS was a bit more classic looking.

[UnitedWx]

10 minutes ago, George001 said:

Those maps are a lot snowier than the ones on tropical tidbits. Regardless, looks really good at h5. The key takeaway this far out is we have an active period coming up with multiple chances.

Thats out to March 16th...may not all be for this weekends storm

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The GEFs look better than the op for the day 6.5 deal.  I wouldn’t call it a classic look on the gfs suite of guidance. At least at H5. It’s an elongated s/w and not a concise powerhouse of a s/w that are classics feature. But, could still be a large event.  The EPS was a bit more classic looking.

yeah, the GFS doesn’t buckle that ULL off the BC coast, it’s an outlier in that regard. pretty much every other model does. it has a fundamentally different evolution 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The GEFs look better than the op for the day 6.5 deal.  I wouldn’t call it a classic look on the gfs suite of guidance. At least at H5. It’s an elongated s/w and not a concise powerhouse of a s/w that are classics feature. But, could still be a large event.  The EPS was a bit more classic looking.

so only a week away? what can go right?

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The GEFs look better than the op for the day 6.5 deal.  I wouldn’t call it a classic look on the gfs suite of guidance. At least at H5. It’s an elongated s/w and not a concise powerhouse of a s/w that are classics feature. But, could still be a large event.  The EPS was a bit more classic looking.

Yeah... again - I am reluctant to buy into any one GFS run more so than usual for the time range in question ( which at D6.5 isn't a whole helluva lot of buy in, anyway! )

But the reasons why, the GFS has a progressivity bias that grows out in time. It's noted by NCEP as something future versions will ( hopefully) address.  Well, the pattern we are heading into is inherently slowing down with less of that flow bias - that sort of isolates the GFS as having certain challenges handling this particular pattern migration. 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

so only a week away? what can go right?

It’s a discussion though. What should we post about instead?

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

so only a week away? what can go right?

Yeah March 10-15 thread period is about a week away. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... again - I am reluctant to buy into any one GFS run more so than usual for the time range in question ( which at D6.5 isn't a whole helluva lot of buy in, anyway! )

But the reasons why, the GFS has a progressivity bias that grows out in time. It's noted by NCEP as something future versions will ( hopefully) address.  Well, the pattern we are heading into is inherently slowing down with less of that flow bias - that sort of isolates the GFS as having certain challenges handling this particular pattern migration. 

 

Yeah I would lean EPS. I was just noting what the gfs was doing. Still feels light years away lol. Who knows what will happen.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

so only a week away? what can go right?

Even so, Probably your best shot of season 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s a discussion though. What should we post about instead?

just whine

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s a discussion though. What should we post about instead?

And the steady EPS starts it Saturday morning so we are on day 5.5 from tonights runs.. Plenty of time for shifts, but also very reasonable to track storms 5-6 days out.. Tip and Brooklyn have been all over this one 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s a discussion though. What should we post about instead?

Clicks on thread titled something about a signal emerging March 10-15.

Then seems surprised or confused that there’s discussion in that thread about that time frame.

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s a discussion though. What should we post about instead?

rain and wind potential

[Baroclinic Zone]

it's not always about snow

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

And the steady EPS starts it Saturday morning so we are on day 5.5 from tonights runs.. Plenty of time for shifts, but also very reasonable to track storms 5-6 days out.. Tip and Brooklyn have been all over this one 

Delegate responsibilities to trusted employees!!

[Typhoon Tip]

See ... another aspect that is quite abstract that I'm toying around with in mind ...

this signaled period appears to be dumping ( suggesting it will ...) a ton of mechanical wave space right into the seam of the seasonal slow down and wave shrinkage.  It sort of is like ally-oop timing with that...

The other side of this thing ( that 4 or so day...) we don't really go back to the longer wave lengths/higher gradient construct nearly as much. We probably enter seeing the seasonal evacuation.

Relax! it won't be an instant thing. There could certainly be other thing trackable - but we should see a definitive difference in the wave space behavior. 

Big March events in the past did that same thing. They were stranded big signaled deals that were sort of 'left to their own devices'

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Clicks on thread titled something about a signal emerging March 10-15.

Then seems surprised or confused that there’s discussion in that thread about that time frame.

I see people cranking  to a modeled 7 day blizzard and i get lost.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

Please tell me how this will be any different then the 10x's we've seen this modeled this "winter"

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

And the steady EPS starts it Saturday morning so we are on day 5.5 from tonights runs.. Plenty of time for shifts, but also very reasonable to track storms 5-6 days out.. Tip and Brooklyn have been all over this one 

We are likely already snowing by 10AM Saturday. It’s a matter now of how much and how long . Is it 24 hours or 48 hours?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are likely already snowing by 10AM Saturday. It’s a matter now of how much and how long . Is it 24 hours or 48 hours?

How long did it snow in 1888

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

rain and wind potential

Oh ok…you deff have rain and wind potential so lets focus on that, try to will it to happen, so WOR gets KU snows. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How long did it snow in 1888

Longer than this will.

[Johnno]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh ok…you deff have rain and wind potential so lets focus on that, try to will it to happen, so WOR gets KU snows. 

Storms of yore