Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[MJO812]

Gfs caving

[brooklynwx99]

caving is an understatement

[kdxken]

A lot of people seem to be spiking the football with this next storm.

[George001]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs caving

Yeah it looks like it’s turning into a Miller B

[SouthCoastMA]

Taking a closer look, yeah the air mass is good enough especially if we get a benchmark or just inside benchmark track, just off the coast.  I'm more speaking to my area, I'd prefer the BM as the furthest west position, but that is no honestly no different than most coastals here . let's go

 

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

A lot of people seem to be spiking the football with this next storm.

Benefit of the doubt that this was a joke 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Benefit of the doubt that this was a joke 

Ya he’s stirring the pot. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Benefit of the doubt that this was a joke 

[George001]

Yeah, nobody is saying we are going to get a blizzard or anything crazy like that. We are just acknowledging that things are looking more favorable than a couple days ago with more guidance showing Miller B redevelopment. It won’t be a blizzard, but a moderate snow is in the cards. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The end result of this OP run BTW is some scattered rain and snow showers 

[cleetussnow]

Miller b

 

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah, nobody is saying we are going to get a blizzard or anything crazy like that. We are just acknowledging that things are looking more favorable than a couple days ago with more guidance showing Miller B redevelopment. It won’t be a blizzard, but a moderate snow is in the cards. 

I'm sorry but everything is still in the cards. Doesn't mean we get the right card though. 

[George001]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The end result of this OP run BTW is some scattered rain and snow showers 

Gfs is weak and disorganized, Canadian is a cutter and Euro is a big snowstorm. Still a long ways to go with this one.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The end result of this OP run BTW is some scattered rain and snow showers 

The storm on it's heels is kicking the system out before it can ever establish itself. I don't believe the Euro had that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's a little hard to see, but the pattern in the bottom right is higher pressure off the coast and lower over the Upper Midwest. This is the EPS, but the GEFS suggest the same theme. Higher PNA heights and lower heights downstream of the trof result in lower pressures off the coast (in this example we what the opposite of what is shown in the reds and blues).

I mean just by observing the deltas between runs of the respective models, I've (personally) been seeing sensitivity related to the ridge response immediately aft of the trough ejection out of the west. 

When those surge more, there appears to be more momentum --> E, wrt the larger-scaled total (RW) wave space layout; the whole structure then finds the teleconnection coupled negative, that is in the process ( spacial-temporally) of passing through the ~ 90W longitude. That negative which is SE of the west fading middle Canadian 500 mb positive anomaly - timed well. 

And viola! the amplitude emerges there - if we go back and look at the oper. EC runs, those that did attempt the early polarward commitment ( about 4 runs ago) the ridge was depicting flatter along the backside of the ejection.  It's really been pretty much 1::1.

I suggest there is argument (valid) for needing accurate assessing wrt the larger scaled d(PNA), its relay into western N/A and the transitive forcing to play into over eastern N/A. 

This has been more evident in the ensemble means of all three, too.  But, it is also evident in those op. Euro runs that came back E vs W with the amplitude. 

I'm really impressed by this clustering by the EPS...  that is pure M/A bomb right there.  There is a mode on the west side, and 2ndary depth mode that is deeper than the operational.   Ha, just to point it out for fun...there 94x mb 150 mi E of Cape May.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah, nobody is saying we are going to get a blizzard or anything crazy like that. We are just acknowledging that things are looking more favorable than a couple days ago with more guidance showing Miller B redevelopment. It won’t be a blizzard, but a moderate snow is in the cards. 

Basically anything is on the table and any precip type 

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

caving is an understatement

It's really truly remarkable how brilliant this signal has become... even since starting this thread - it's only become more so...

It really feels like we're forecasting the 2ndary wave function?  -the non-linearity of it is that it is immensely implied, but is just not explicitly described. 

It's really like we have a high confidence forecast that the forecast will eventually have to be made - f'ing fascinating!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian transfers too late for SNE. Same areas get buried that have seen snow all winter 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's really truly remarkable how brilliant this signal has become... even since starting this thread - it's only become more so...

It really feels like we're forecasting the 2ndary wave function?  -the non-linearity of it is that it is immensely implied, but is just not explicitly described. 

It's really like we have a high confidence forecast that the forecast will eventually have to be made - f'ing fascinating!

if we can get that ULL sitting over BC to buckle and interact with the ULL in the Pacific and buckle the PNA... would be explosive. that's pretty much what the ECMWF did

[MJO812]

Wow ukie

[Diggiebot]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Wow ukie

Do tell or show please and thank you 

[MuddyWx]

OP runs are gonna be all over the place. Ensembles

[George001]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's really truly remarkable how brilliant this signal has become... even since starting this thread - it's only become more so...

It really feels like we're forecasting the 2ndary wave function?  -the non-linearity of it is that it is immensely implied, but is just not explicitly described. 

It's really like we have a high confidence forecast that the forecast will eventually have to be made - f'ing fascinating!

Interesting thing about the gfs is it amps up the wave behind it and turns it into a strong storm just a couple days after the 1st wave whiffs. That second threat is still within the timeframe given for this thread too.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Good to see the gfs fold

are we back to liking the euro 

well ...it's a bit of an off-topic but I for one haven't lost any faith in the Euro yet.  I'm still seeing subtleties and nuances that make it more valid than all other models.  I still raise an eyebrow just as much as I ever have when it's crossing from D5 into D4s.

I suspect some of it's performance  being obscured by the din of over zealous nit-picking in this particular public opinion contributors.  - an opinion, that is highly guided by the superficial specters of 'showing solutions' that aren't as entertaining. 

I mean there's a little gaslight there ( sounding ) but it's an honest opinion.  This last system?  I completely give it pass on the fact that that it was west-north of the GFS at D5 ... because a, it was correcting at the time.  But more important, b ... it proved more right with where the better snows and cold ended up aligning.  That's the nuance part.  The storms over...no apologies conferred.  I wonder why, gee.

I don't think it has done enough terribly wrong to warrant what's been going on with that model lately.  Just sayn - I don't.

[Thunderblizzard]

9 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

Do tell or show please and thank you 

Pretty explosive look on the UKMET.

[brooklynwx99]

watch how the block forces the S/W underneath... it leads to rapid intensification and negative tilting. big signal for a strong Miller B

heights are actually decreasing out ahead of the trough due to the confluence! very dynamic setup verbatim

[WxWatcher007]

That’s not a bad look at all especially considering where it was yesterday. Put something legitimately high end on the table and I’ll take my chances. 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s not a bad look at all especially considering where it was yesterday. Put something legitimately high end on the table and I’ll take my chances. 

trust me, that kind of 500mb evolution presents high end potential

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’m not sure where the “spiking the football” narrative is coming from.

From one guy who likes to “meh” everything. If it’s not dominating threads for weeks with questions about a specific weekend at a specific resort area, he’s trying to downplay an poo poo all talk of possible future snow events. 

[MuddyWx]

Nice moves by the GEFS