Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’m not sure where the “spiking the football” narrative is coming from. The storm is still very much a possibility and I think the trends on ensembles have been generally positive the last day or two. That’s all you can really say at day 7. 
 

People are going to discuss threats. It doesn’t mean they pan out. If they always did, we wouldn’t dissect model guidance. We’d just take it at face value. 

A modicum of positivity equates to spiked footballs by some. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Being excited about a big signal at d6-d7 is not spiking footballs. Your nauseating… 

 

14 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

well we basically need BM or southeast of there to get snow in these air masses. Otherwise, the more tucked solutions may be great for interior

My biggest concern is the lack of a good airmass. Normally we’d have a little wiggle room inside BM etc etc, but like south coast said, anything inside the BM is probably going to be problematic for many in SNE.

 

id feel good in NNE

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A modicum of positivity equates to spiked footballs by some. 

And the one who said folks were spiking footballs, is the same one who can use just a tad of positivity…how ironic. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

My biggest concern is the lack of a good airmass. Normally we’d have a little wiggle room inside BM etc etc, but like south coast said, anything inside the BM is probably going to be problematic for many in SNE.

 

id feel good in NNE

The airmass is fine. It’s the other features I’ll be more tuned into over the next couple days. 

[CoastalWx]

That’s a decent airmass for March standards. Also, if you have an intensifying low off the Cape, you aren’t going to be advecting in garbage on ESE winds. 
 

Obviously if it hugs then it’s more of a far inferior deal,  but that’s expected with those tracks.

[mahk_webstah]

Somewhere there was a link to Tomer Burg, and as Tip speculated a couple days ago, after next weekend we flip to a +pna with residual confluence and then there are chances for more for the coast after and into late March.  That could be As and Bs but likely active.  Some of us might be increasing our pack right thru the last week of March.  What a 2nd half.

[George001]

27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Being excited about a big signal at d6-d7 is not spiking footballs. Your nauseating… 

I kind of get it, this winter has been rough for snow weenies. I know this is kind of cruel, but there is a small part of me that hopes a low goes over his noggin for downplaying every threat, even though that would mean I rain too.

[UnitedWx]

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ha. Just the fact while most were bitching about the season and pissing in everyone’s cheerios who remained patient/positive, some continued to to say late Feb into March will have plenty more of chances, with KU potential.

Doesn’t mean it’s a lock for epocity, we’re just in a much better spot to close it out. Rivera could still throw a two broken back singles and we lose…or, he may not get the chance to enter the game lol.

Lol! Yeah it's interesting watching the psychological aspect of a lot of these discussions. I'm always optimistic at this point in my life. I spent too many years being negative and it's just freaking useless. It also helps to have other Hobbies when it's not snowing...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

I kind of get it, this winter has been rough for snow weenies. I know this is kind of cruel, but there is a small part of me that hopes a low goes over his noggin for downplaying every threat. 

He’s been like this since I joined the board a decade ago. He knows what he’s doing. Every season, same ole and he usually manages to pull a 18+ event. He’s the last person who should be this negative but it’s his online persona and too much of his dna to change…he’s become overly tiresome to have to deal with, but at least he’s consistent lol. 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s been like this since I joined the board a decade ago. He knows what he’s doing. Every season, same ole and he usually manages to pull a 18+ event. He’s the last person who should be this negative but it’s his online persona and too much of his dna to change…he’s become overly tiresome to have to deal with, but at least he’s consistent lol. 

 

If I see a threat I like I’m all in. 
 

We are coming up on mid March, at least in this area, we need a lot to go right.

Im worried about the inland runners on some ensemble guidance. Seems to be all or nothing. BM or cutter 

[Go Kart Mozart]

We need the Pope or QG to give their rebuttals.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This page .  I see folks have learned very little this year.

Massive caveats apply at a week out. Not exactly a lot of cold air around 

Don't go down that path.  This will generate it's own cold.

[powderfreak]

43 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A modicum of positivity equates to spiked footballs by some. 

“Don’t give me hope, nope, don’t do it. Won’t even entertain it.”

-The rebuttals.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If I see a threat I like I’m all in. 
 

We are coming up on mid March, at least in this area, we need a lot to go right.

Im worried about the inland runners on some ensemble guidance. Seems to be all or nothing. BM or cutter 

You are never all in lol until it starts snowing and your ruler is covered. We know who you are.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If I see a threat I like I’m all in. 
 

We are coming up on mid March, at least in this area, we need a lot to go right.

Im worried about the inland runners on some ensemble guidance. Seems to be all or nothing. BM or cutter 

Lol..you’re all in until one bad run of one model, and then it’s over, and then the  Mehing begins. So unless everything is absolutely perfect, you’re complaining. 

[JoeSnowBOS]

There is zero threat over a week out.   Let’s watch the models ping pong a 1,000 times.  Give it until 4 days out before talking of any “possible” potential.  Otherwise it’s clown map show in here 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

There is zero threat over a week out.   Let’s watch the models ping pong a 1,000 times.  Give it until 4 days out before talking of any “possible” potential.  Otherwise it’s clown map show in here 

If it weren't for clown maps, SNE would not have had had a winter this year.

[MuddyWx]

4 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

There is zero threat over a week out.   Let’s watch the models ping pong a 1,000 times.  Give it until 4 days out before talking of any “possible” potential.  Otherwise it’s clown map show in here 

then see ya in 3 days!

[OceanStWx]

16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

“Don’t give me hope, nope, don’t do it. Won’t even entertain it.”

-The rebuttals.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

There is zero threat over a week out.   Let’s watch the models ping pong a 1,000 times.  Give it until 4 days out before talking of any “possible” potential.  Otherwise it’s clown map show in here 

 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

In order to know the true depths of despair, one must first have hope. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

My weenies don’t dance, they just pull up their snow pants…….

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Somewhere there was a link to Tomer Burg, and as Tip speculated a couple days ago, after next weekend we flip to a +pna with residual confluence and then there are chances for more for the coast after and into late March.  That could be As and Bs but likely active.  Some of us might be increasing our pack right thru the last week of March.  What a 2nd half.

And applying the standard SNE correction factor to this statement: "What 2nd half?"

[WxWatcher007]

To add “analysis” to the thread…

I don’t really have a read yet, but I do think the GFS is going to be way off as it stands currently. The issue I see (and I only care about CT) isn’t a bad antecedent airmass—but the fact that any type of hug or more shredded system—both issues here this season—is going to turn this from exotic to mundane. 

Speaking as a weenie now—mundane in March, after an historically awful winter here, will not cut it for me. At all. I know others will take what they can get and I respect that. Nothing would please me more than a DC to Portland nuke. 

[OceanStWx]

I think notably, this isn't a case of EPS vs GEFS with one inland and the other staying offshore. This is similar means across all ensemble suites, but individual members are either inland or stay offshore. So I feel like that gives me greater confidence that this is two possible tracks based on pattern rather than pick the model of the day kind of deal.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think notably, this isn't a case of EPS vs GEFS with one inland and the other staying offshore. This is similar means across all ensemble suites, but individual members are either inland or stay offshore. So I feel like that gives me greater confidence that this is two possible tracks based on pattern rather than pick the model of the day kind of deal.

Thanks. What’s the ensemble sensitivity based on? Is it the placement of the block?

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks. What’s the ensemble sensitivity based on? Is it the placement of the block?

it seems to be how zonal the Pacific jet is. the GFS is trending towards a more zonal Pacific jet, which helps boot the S/W out of the west instead of letting it dig. this is key to getting a coastal storm here

the trend is continuing on the 12z GFS... look at the E PAC ridge weakening and the increase in interaction between the S/W and ULL over the Pacific. look off of the CA coast

[brooklynwx99]

as a result of that tiny change in the strength of the Pacific jet, the GFS is much less amplified out west

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks. What’s the ensemble sensitivity based on? Is it the placement of the block?

It appears most sensitive to the two ridges, weakening Southeast ridge and developing PNA ridge.

[OceanStWx]

It's a little hard to see, but the pattern in the bottom right is higher pressure off the coast and lower over the Upper Midwest. This is the EPS, but the GEFS suggest the same theme. Higher PNA heights and lower heights downstream of the trof result in lower pressures off the coast (in this example we what the opposite of what is shown in the reds and blues).