Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The seasonal tendency to weaken on approach was due to RNA/NAO block shearing.....there is somewhat of a PNA ridge here. I don't think this signal weakens.....Sey-Mour Signal

I don’t see the weakening signal really on this, maybe Scott or will could chime in on 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If you guys recall, I was all over the system last Saturday decaying on approach, even while the models were dumping copious QPF several days out. I said watch the QPF haircuts...its why I never went over 10", anywhere even in first call, despite 1-2' clowns.

This isn't the same thing....that said, that doesn't mean no precip type issues.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you guys recall, I was all over the system last Saturday decaying on approach, even while the models were dumping copious QPF several days out. I said watch the QPF haircuts...its why I never went over 10", anywhere even in first call, despite 1-2' clowns.

This isn't the same thing....that said, that doesn't mean no precip type issues.

Valid points Ray. I hope this one can get inside of 4 days and look good still for most. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The seasonal tendency to weaken on approach was due to RNA/NAO block shearing.....there is somewhat of a PNA ridge here. I don't think this signal weakens.....Sey-Mour Signal

What I’m saying is that we said this same exact thing for this Saturday coming up and now look at it. It was just as good a signal as Monday and Tuesday now is.  A few of the great signals has had some sort of transient PNA ridge that turned out to be a fluke. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Key take away for me is emergent continuity on a very slow moving tempest early to mid week...this run had less separation between the N and S steam (very subtle southern kink) components than 12z due to better PNA ridging, so they phased sooner..LARGEST run of the week will be 00z Saturday, when discrete waves come ashore for optimal data ingest....get some rest while you can.

 

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS trend was for slightly weaker blocking, which allowed for closer track...hopefully that doesn't continue, but not too worried....at least for my locale.

 

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Reminds me a bit of 3/5/01, too.

Agree....ZERO consensus. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What I’m saying is that we said this same exact thing for this Saturday coming up and now look at it. It was just as good a signal as Monday and Tuesday now is.  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

K...I'm tired,  I need to drop the mic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Valid points Ray. I hope this one can get inside of 4 days and look good still for most. 

Maybe the N stream phase messes up, and we lack cold....possible. But there should be a big storm.

[Typhoon Tip]

just Folks need to be made aware up front ...  we are dealing with spring recovery in the hemisphere as these events try to manifest.

don't expect any solution to be blue with room to spare...  unless you're just in a lucky spot relative to that particular run's nuances.  Otherwise everything is baseline marginal at this range now that we're into the 2nd week of March.

Jesus, equinox sun in two weeks.  It really does get really hard even prior to then.  There's probably a reason why the snow climate has a bit of steep drop off at the ides.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

K...I'm tired,  I need to drop the mic.

We aren’t done yet though.  This is from Scott when we were all in on this Saturday threat 2-3 days ago check out the original west coast ridge forecasted for this Saturday, trends actually went the opposite direction. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 

Agree....ZERO consensus. 

EPS showed the same thing for Saturday 2 days ago!  All I’m saying is that we need multiple runs from multiple models to be in before I believe it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We aren’t done yet though.  This is from Scott when we were all in on this Saturday threat 2-3 days ago check out the original west coast ridge forecasted for this Saturday, trends actually went the opposite direction. 

Actually ...that was me  lol  

But yeah... It was in the context of needing those heights to    not   go the other way. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We aren’t done yet though.  This is from Scott when we were all in on this Saturday threat 2-3 days ago check out the original west coast ridge forecasted for this Saturday, trends actually went the opposite direction. 

Maybe rushed? At some point, MJO phase 8 at that amplitude will impart a change, fleeting as it maybe.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EPS showed the same thing for Saturday 2 days ago!  All I’m saying is that we need multiple runs from multiple models to be in before I believe it. 

I don't think the Saturday signal persisted to this degree for a full 24 hours...I remember I blogged about it early that AM, and it had faded by 12z that day.

But fine....we clearly disagree.

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

As you can see here Peak PNA has been waffling on eps and generally trending later. As of last Thursday Friday PNA ridge was supposed to peak this coming weekend. . So hopefully the ridge doesn’t get that can kicked again. 

[Heisy]

this is an absolute honker of a signal for this range

Now this we can agree on lol… Someone from N PA to Maine is probably going to get smoked from this one imo. Think we’ll see other models jump on soon. This is a 2 streamer phase, big question for me right now is position and speed of that STJ vort.


.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Heisy said:

Now this we can agree on lol… Someone from N PA to Maine is probably going to get smoked from this one imo. Think we’ll see other models jump on soon. This is a 2 streamer phase, big question for me right now is position and speed of that STJ vort.


.

Yes.

@Sey-Mour Snowfair enough...we will see soon enough.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think the Saturday signal persisted to this degree for a full 24 hours...I remember I blogged about it early that AM, and it had faded by 12z that day.

But fine....we clearly disagree.

 

Correct it showed a massive hit for 1 run. But still solid for 3-4 runs. Let’s see just give us one storm and end this winter. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Now this we can agree on lol… Someone from N PA to Maine is probably going to get smoked from this one imo. Think we’ll see other models jump on soon. This is a 2 streamer phase, big question for me right now is position and speed of that STJ vort.


.

Oooookkkkk….I hope this one can hold. Looks good now, but it always does at this lead time. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12z EPS today was most impressive yet IMO...intensified signal.

[Henry's Weather]

Not to break the flow of the debate here, but does someone mind explaining to me how this progression is not verbatim snowstorm across SNE?

 

[Henry's Weather]

In other words, if we were only forecastint based off of H5, H7, and H85, would we call this a near miss?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12z EPS today was most impressive yet IMO...intensified signal.

I'd feel pretty good if I were you. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12z EPS today was most impressive yet IMO...intensified signal.

Agree for the Monday threat it’s now 3 runs in a row check out this control run lol @RUNNAWAYICEBERG special 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12z EPS today was most impressive yet IMO...intensified signal.

Really .. .haha... man, you got some low standards -

this was the EPS back on 03/03 for Saturday - just a wee bit more impressive in the flat scalar values.  but ... to each his own

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Control run is always goofy plus we don't crush KU's in WCT anymore. 

[Henry's Weather]

5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Not to break the flow of the debate here, but does someone mind explaining to me how this progression is not verbatim snowstorm across SNE?

 

@ORH_wxman in particular, I'm curious about your opinion 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

@ORH_wxman in particular, I'm curious about your opinion 

I'm not Will and I realize you are not asking me ... but, we don't know anything about the thermal profile in that cinema there, for one.

But yeah...otherwise, you have a nice easterly 850mb ( most likely) anomaly.  SO, barring warmth wrapping around and the CCB not displaced NW or weirdness...

It is at minimum a QPF anomaly regardless of what is actually falling.

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not Will and I realize you are not asking me ... but, we don't know anything about the thermal profile in that cinema there, for one.

But yeah...otherwise, you have a nice easterly anomaly over the top of a closed 700 mb circulation envelope.  SO, barring warmth wrapping around and the CCB not displaced NW or weirdness...

It is at minimum a QPF anomaly regardless of what is actually falling.

What do you mean by QPF anomaly?

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Really .. .haha... man, you got some low standards -

this was the EPS back on 03/03 for Saturday - just a wee bit more impressive in the flat scalar values.  but ... to each his own

I don't mean for Saturday.