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Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...


Typhoon Tip
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  On 3/7/2023 at 1:39 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase

this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-8687200.thumb.png.66154660cb9aada82905cc8908c8cb0f.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8687200.thumb.png.4634ec6101d133309702a39fd5aaa739.png

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wasn't the EPS perfect a few days ago for a KU this weekend.  Thought you couldn't draw it up any better?

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  On 3/7/2023 at 1:43 PM, WinterWolf said:

Well Saturday looked just as good a couple days ago too. This look will morph as we go along, so who knows how it looks by Thursday or Friday.  I appreciate the breakdown…but it needs to get closer and produce something.  But thanks for the post. 

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Yea. We‘ll watch and salivate over explosive runs but we need to get this inside d5 for a better handle.

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  On 3/7/2023 at 1:53 PM, qg_omega said:

how much snow you had since no changes?  Temps above normal?  Warmest winter ever?  Massive gradient winter?  Historic cold and snow out west?

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We have had a record breaking winter. Nearly 10 degrees above average in January, very little snow. We all know you loved every second of it, just admit it. You like warmer weather, like Torch Tiger does.

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  On 3/7/2023 at 1:49 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. We‘ll watch and salivate over explosive runs but we need to get this inside d5 for a better handle.

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Despite the fading look on Saturday, the GEFS still look OK for a small to moderate event down here. But, this season! We know it will be wrong, pick the least snowiest model and it will be correct in the end

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  On 3/7/2023 at 1:39 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase

this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-8687200.thumb.png.66154660cb9aada82905cc8908c8cb0f.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8687200.thumb.png.4634ec6101d133309702a39fd5aaa739.png


If it’s more N/S dominant (which this run is since it’s diving farther S) I’d worry about stronger primary and more of a tug inland as it develops Northward. See what 12z euro run brings, but i do think if we saw that run go out beyond 144 there would have been a lot of huggers, that being said it would have probably crushed the interior. Feeling good about this being the real deal and the GFS will likely adjust by end of the day. As always, with storm #1 the GFS is slowly caving to euro/eps guidance. I would probably gambled a million dollars that the 6z gfs was going to come in less amped vs it’s 00z run and it did….

Rooting for the coastal plain but just want a big one to chase…

453fcaf70f13f1ef2547fc0c062d3d60.gif


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  On 3/7/2023 at 2:05 PM, Heisy said:


If it’s more N/S dominant (which this run is since it’s diving farther S) I’d worry about stronger primary and more of a tug inland as it develops Northward. See what 12z euro run brings, but i do think if we saw that run go out beyond 144 there would have been a lot of huggers, that being said it would have probably crushed the interior. Feeling good about this being the real deal and the GFS will likely adjust by end of the day. As always, with storm #1 the GFS is slowly caving to euro/eps guidance. I would probably gambled a million dollars that the 6z gfs was going to come in less amped vs it’s 00z run and it did….

Rooting for the coastal plain but just want a big one to chase…

453fcaf70f13f1ef2547fc0c062d3d60.gif


.

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yes, but get the NS to really dive south and you raise the ceiling. it's a risk I'm willing to take at this point in the season... go big or go home

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  On 3/7/2023 at 2:07 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

yes, but get the NS to really dive south and you raise the ceiling. it's a risk I'm willing to take at this point in the season... go big or go home

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Agreed! But we gotta get it alot closer. You are a great asset here. Love your posting and analysis…keep it up. Obviously I think you understand all the caveats and points being made. It’s just so frustrating to see a good pattern and not ever being able to capitalize on anything this season. But, I agree there have been major changes now, and the question is, do we get skunked yet again? Dam I hope not. 

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  On 3/7/2023 at 2:06 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

the whole "no changes" shit is completely disingenuous. there have obviously been wholesale changes in the pattern. whether that leads to snow or not is a totally different story and is dependent on way more factors than simple longwave configuration

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He knows it is disingenuous. He doesn’t care. 
 

Anyone with any modicum of meteorology knowledge knows the pattern has been quite different since about 2/23. There’s a reason CNE/NNE has gone gangbusters in that period and there’s actually been some snow events in SNE as well with potential for more. 

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  On 3/7/2023 at 2:06 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

the whole "no changes" shit is completely disingenuous. there have obviously been wholesale changes in the pattern. whether that leads to snow or not is a totally different story and is dependent on way more factors than simple longwave configuration

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It’s ok to track storms that don’t pan out, qqomegas thick skull cannot seem to get that concept. Even if both storms miss, or storm 1 whiffs while storm 2 runs inland, so what? We had a favorable pattern, and if we had a great time tracking it really doesn’t make a difference whether we get nothing or 2 feet. Even if we don’t score, that doesn’t negate the enjoyment we had tracking the storms. If it’s just the snow itself you enjoy rather than tracking storms, there is no point in tracking, you may as well just…. not look at the models and wait for the snow to start falling. There isn’t anything wrong with doing that, but in that case why bother posting on these boards? 

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  On 3/7/2023 at 2:06 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

the whole "no changes" shit is completely disingenuous. there have obviously been wholesale changes in the pattern. whether that leads to snow or not is a totally different story and is dependent on way more factors than simple longwave configuration

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Don’t waste your energy on it. If next week crushes he’ll be gone.

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  On 3/7/2023 at 2:15 PM, WinterWolf said:

Agreed! But we gotta get it alot closer. You are a great asset here. Love your posting and analysis…keep it up. Obviously I think you understand all the caveats and points being made. It’s just so frustrating to see a good pattern and not ever being able to capitalize on anything this season. But, I agree there have been major changes now, and the question is, do we get skunked yet again? Dam I hope not. 

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trust me, I have seen seasons have one anomalous blocking spell to come away with nothing. but two??? that is pretty difficult to do. I'll take my chances through the 20th

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  On 3/7/2023 at 2:23 PM, Slantstick2001 said:

Imagine melting down over something you have no control over... to your point though..if you are a snow weenie you have to model watch at your on peril. Otherwise just enjoy your everyday life and be pleasantly surprised when it does snow!

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I dunno, people melt all the time over things they can’t control and not just weather. We are sensitive animals.

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  On 3/7/2023 at 2:45 PM, CoastalWx said:

I don't hate the NAM for Saturday. Words that are not confident when describing the NAM at the end of its range.

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It’s definitely more amped with the primary which is ironic because this time around, we need that. We’ve been squirming over strong primaries all season. 

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