Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[Heisy]

Well out to sea, as I’ve been stating it’s becoming obvious to me the GFs suite is full of crap as always. At 144 though there seems to be a load shortwave dropping south for storm 2


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[Heisy]

Oh boy, PNA heaven bear Idaho, this thing is phasing



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[Heisy]

euro doing a full phase at 168…


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[Heisy]

I can’t wait to see the wxbell maps holy fook



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[Heisy]

Verbatim it probably tucked too much for SNE but it def destroys someone in the region with that look


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[Roger Smith]

Just saw the 192h Euro, it keeps going with the 12z evolution and parks a 982 mb low over Salem MA. 850s look good, warm seclusion look. 20-30 incher without seeing the snowfall maps. 

[The 4 Seasons]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Well out to sea, as I’ve been stating it’s becoming obvious to me the GFs suite is full of crap as always. At 144 though there seems to be a load shortwave dropping south for storm 2


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Yeah Storm 1 is non-starter similar to GEM. Storm 2 is an absolute bomb but at this range for the op does it matter? the EC/EPS was gorgeous at this range 2 days at 00Z/Sunday. Maps are fun to look at though, its all we got lol

[Roger Smith]

So do you want the weekend GFS, the midweek Euro, or ... 

 

... both (heh heh) ??

[Heisy]

So do you want the weekend GFS, the midweek Euro, or ... 
 
... both (heh heh) ??

I like storm 2 because of the PNA domain. 00z euro massively improved that for storm 2. Im all in for storm 2 for nyc-Ne at least. Especially with how those other models ensembles look


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[Ji]

Oh boy, PNA heaven bear Idaho, this thing is phasing



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Lol

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[Heisy]

Lol

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I live for these runs. I have bad enough ADHD as it is, when a monster run like this happens I can barely put a sentence together lmao


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[Heisy]

Ji you coming with me?




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[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Verbatim it probably tucked too much for SNE but it def destroys someone in the region with that look


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Hopefully the ENS are more progressive. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Just opining on what the model showed as others have been doing since this thread started.

Just opining on what I believe will actually happen as others have also been doing....at the end of the day, that is what people care about.

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its manufacturing failure for 3/14-15

It found it for the southeastern third of SNE, that run-

[Roger Smith]

The Euro storm is a monster, it just fills slowly almost in place, if you could get it to follow a track 50 miles more out to sea ... wow. But I realize it's very hypothetical. The thing about the GFS is, forecast error at 96h is a lot smaller than at 192h. I notice in my routine forecasting in Europe that the GFS is taking a different approach from the other models too, tracking a low further north within 48h across Ireland and the UK. Makes a big difference to snow potential there. I'll report which model(s) got this right some time within next two days, if this model disparity doesn't disappear.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

The Euro storm is a monster, it just fills slowly almost in place, if you could get it to follow a track 50 miles more out to sea ... wow. But I realize it's very hypothetical. The thing about the GFS is, forecast error at 96h is a lot smaller than at 192h. I notice in my routine forecasting in Europe that the GFS is taking a different approach from the other models too, tracking a low further north within 48h across Ireland and the UK. Makes a big difference to snow potential there. I'll report which model(s) got this right some time within next two days, if this model disparity doesn't disappear.

I'm not as worried about the track, or how much it hugs at this point....what is more important from a SNE perspective over the  next several days is delaying that H5 capture that results in LBSW. I think that is what becomes more set in stone than the exact track. I feel like ensembles will do just that.

I'm feeling better about settling on this date/wave is "the one"....aligns well with the 1956 analog. People are going to weenie me for that...they have been all season and probably will right up until it happens.

Did the same shit leading into March 2018, Jan 2016, and Jan 2015...That's fine-

[40/70 Benchmark]

I get that there is still plenty of QPF for SNE that run....but you are always playing with fire when things close off/occlude too soon....again, I realize this is one day 7-8 OP run....speaking more from a theoretical sense.

[Ji]

Ji you coming with me?




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Well be in mid phase 8 by then at a very high amplitude...maybe it's a colder storm

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[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ji said:

Well be in mid phase 8 by then at a very high amplitude...maybe it's a colder storm

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

Dude, wife and kids are with fam over seas for several weeks right now, so let me know if you head up this way.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get that there is still plenty of QPF for SNE that run....but you are always playing with fire when things close off/occlude too soon....again, I realize this is one day 7-8 OP run....speaking more from a theoretical sense.

I am willing to bet that thermals would also be less of an issue if you save the best dynamics for closest approach to the region, too...you can see in the Kutchera map that there is a pretty identifiable dependence on elevations....has the "up and in" look. That would be less of an issue if you delayed the H5 closure and potential capture. LBSW exacerbates thermal issues and causes some funky crap in the SGZ, but those are issues for a much closer range.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Key take away for me is emergent continuity on a very slow moving tempest early to mid week...this run had less separation between the N and S steam (very subtle southern kink) components than 12z due to better PNA ridging, so they phased sooner..LARGEST run of the week will be 00z Saturday, when discrete waves come ashore for optimal data ingest....get some rest while you can.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

EPS:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

EPS trend was for slightly weaker blocking, which allowed for closer track...hopefully that doesn't continue, but not too worried....at least for my locale.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Reminds me a bit of 3/5/01, too.

[BombsAway1288]

Great so the 1st wave is too suppressed and the 2nd is a hugger and congrats interior. Sweet! I think the coast is toast. Can’t win a single thing this winter

[Snowcrazed71]

30 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Great so the 1st wave is too suppressed and the 2nd is a hugger and congrats interior. Sweet! I think the coast is toast. Can’t win a single thing this winter

Lol... This is not the outcome. Patience grasshopper. 

[UnitedWx]

4 hours ago, Heisy said:

Euro still not rolling out, any word on delay?


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Trying find it's crown that it lost several years ago....