Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m not folding for WOR though, especially inland. Pattern looks loaded with chances but yea I get…it’s just that…until it materializes. 

I know this system overnight tonight was never going to be big, 3-5 inches if we were lucky.....but it started out north of us and see where it has landed, the block means business. I will assume most gets suppressed until the block begins to fade. Then we need something timed well or it will end up to our NW with the permanent troughiness in the west

[Kitz Craver]

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nothing is off the table. The big dog look was never gonna hold for 7 days lol. I don’t understand some folks logic?
 

 This could still be a big dog. The ingredients are there. Or it could be not much/mediocre at best.

Lots of moving pieces to resolve. We’ve warned folks about just this occurring, but yet the same shit happens every single threat.  
 

Sut back and watch the model theater..that’s the best advice. Lots of twists and turns to come. 

To be objective, some of the truly historic storms guidance has latched on to at early leads and hasn’t let go. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yup, ICON was a pretty nice improvement

ICON went wild that run.

[CoastalWx]

Icon looks pretty good haha.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey Ray. Get some glasses. 

I didn't see that post. But you've done that before and we have his same argument. Anyway. Sorry for derailing 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ich liebe die Ikone

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Icon looks pretty good haha.

Little extra wave spacing makes all the difference...lets that thing go to town just south of us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

To be objective, some of the truly historic storms guidance has latched on to at early leads and hasn’t let go. 

It's not uncommon for a major signal to fade in the medium range only return with a vengeance, but I'm just leery of the seasonal trend with respect to western heights. Been impossible to reverse once it sets in...otherwise, I would still favor this period a something very noteworthy. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm in a meeting at work and can't really look but did steal a glimpse at the ICON ( which I have not faith in as a modeling tool but fwiw -) and the 500mb for the first of the two is every bit a realization as can be, with a slowing deepening pseudo cutoff below 530 dm, in an utterly perfect climate location to pummel NYC-BOS.

whether the sfc concurs and other synoptic aspects ...no idea

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yup, ICON was a pretty nice improvement

Big hit for sne.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Big hit for sne.

Yea, that's that's atmospheric road-head along I-95...and every other major SNE thoroughfare for that matter.

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh yeah… I can just cheat on my phone 

Anyway, I don’t really have a lot of faith in the icon as I’m sure nobody else does, but it would be amusing if it of all models were the one that kind of detect the reality on potentiality here   

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't see that post. But you've done that before and we have his same argument. Anyway. Sorry for derailing 

LOL I know your stance. It’s all good. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Anyway, we’re just ping-ponging conversation tidbits about the modeling cinema describing whether we like or didn’t like the movie and who’s performances we think we’re better than others, and how well the writing the cinematography and all that shit went down. Lol.  In that metaphoric neon, I would say that the 500 mbar was brilliantly written, but the acting at the surface leaves something to be desired.

[DJln491]

gfs not running?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL I know your stance. It’s all good. 

Yup… See…? All you need is one good model run and “it’s all good“
 

I like Gasper’s statement, the sports columnist when he said “winning is the best deodorant”

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Too bad the icon is not built with German engineering.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, DJln491 said:

gfs not running?

It is but ends up, just sent out a memo that it’s a really terrible solution so I decided to scrub the whole run

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

gfs not running?

Jimmy's down. 

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

To be objective, some of the truly historic storms guidance has latched on to at early leads and hasn’t let go. 

Super rare for it not to vary a lot over a weeks time. Many big ones have faded, and went to garbage in the midterm…not uncommon at all. In fact more common than not. 

[CoastalWx]

She running now.

[Cold Miser]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Jimmy's down. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Anyway, we’re just ping-ponging conversation tidbits about the modeling cinema describing whether we like or didn’t like the movie and who’s performances we think we’re better than others, and how well the writing the cinematography and all that shit went down. Lol.  In that metaphoric neon, I would say that the 500 mbar was brilliantly written, but the acting at the surface leaves something to be desired.

I'm a lot more interested in H5 than the sfc presentation at the moment anyway....we know how the skill degrades on model guidance as we go toward the sfc...esp further out in time.

[tavwtby]

since moving up to Winsted from Waterbury in 13, we've had 4 seasons below 50", avg here dating back before 1900, is 83" but the avg since I've been here is 60", and that's including 3 above average winters...if I exclude 15-16, 18-19, 19-20, and 20-21, it's right at avg. That said, I need 8" more down the stretch to beat 15-16,  19-20, 1898-99, and 1912-13, as the bottom dwelling winters, sorry for the winded post, but in short, I think it's achievable by the looks of things

[brooklynwx99]

CMC is significantly improved with the heights over the PAC NW

[brooklynwx99]

lmao worlds apart here. this is as big of a shift as you'll see at this range

[CoastalWx]

Nice improvement, but squashed. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao worlds apart here. this is as big of a shift as you'll see at this range

Wouldn't have expected that at this range...but the model does blow

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wouldn't have expected that at this range...but the model does blow

this is laughable. complete change in the synoptic evolution

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice improvement, but squashed. 

Good.