Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

So 6-7 days away…that means if I look downstream the system should be about here today, right? How come I don’t see anything- please advise.

??

[CoastalWx]

Definitely some potential, but you can also see how it could be sort of a dud too. There are two chances it seems in the next 6-9 days. 

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

So 6-7 days away…that means if I look downstream the system should be about here today, right? How come I don’t see anything- please advise.

Username checks out

[Supernovice]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Username checks out

He literally ranted for days that his rain was contaminated with chlorine and chemicals from the fire in Northeast Ohio which had occurred like 8 days earlier. 

It was a joke- I’ll do better explaining next time. Or you could trust his forecasting and weather understanding- up to you all.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

28 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

So 6-7 days away…that means if I look downstream the system should be about here today, right? How come I don’t see anything- please advise.

Ask A.cooper 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd rather nothing happen and worm hole to spring....words wouldn't be able to convey my frustration if a big kahuna skirts to my south, at this point. 

At this point is the operative phrase.

[UnitedWx]

31 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

So 6-7 days away…that means if I look downstream the system should be about here today, right? How come I don’t see anything- please advise.

????? I hope you're joking...

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

pouring salt in the SNE weenie wounds lol 

Well, when we’re knee-deep in mud, in late April while you’re tanning your nips and napes and leafung out with daffodils popping everywhere…

[Cold Miser]

Connecticut news stations are touting the good ole' winter mix for this weekend.   I'm no dummy...This season for me this means cold rain, with a chance for a teeny, tiny bit of snow.

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

He literally ranted for days that his rain was contaminated with chlorine and chemicals from the fire in Northeast Ohio which had occurred like 8 days earlier. 

It was a joke- I’ll do better explaining next time. Or you could trust his forecasting and weather understanding- up to you all.

 

It’s all good. Have an edible. 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

pouring salt in the SNE weenie wounds lol 

The poor girls just wanna have fun

[brooklynwx99]

ECMWF looks a bit better with more separation between the ULL and S/W of interest... more ridging in the SW US as well. we need the ULL to buckle and create a semblance of a +PNA if we want any chance for a larger storm here

EPS is doing the same... good to see that trend reverse

[Heisy]

Big improvement coming on 6z eps, left over pac love phases in with pac energy which allows PNA ridge to pump a little better in front…. That helps main shortwave dig better



.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Big improvement coming on 6z eps, left over pac love phases in with pac energy which allows PNA ridge to pump a little better in front…. That helps main shortwave dig better



.

trying to resolve that chaotic Pacific flow is going to be absolute hell for modeling

[brooklynwx99]

that small improvement over the Pacific leads to a much larger improvement over the OH Valley... this is almost back to where we were at 12z yesterday

again, the key here is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream

[CoastalWx]

It improves but digs to the SE just a bit outside for us. Regardless, that’s ose to a burial. Starts to curve north last second. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It appears lesser and lesser likely that a solo 'big dawg' is going to emerge over the 12th/13th, despite the continuation of the over-arcing theme of the hemispheric outline - the signaling for the period of time is still shining. So we'll see if this is just 'pattern change' teen-ager angst in the models... heh

However, there's still a robust indication from all three, EPS/GEFS/GEPs, for cyclogenesis along the M/A during the 11-13th, it's just not likely from what this looks like at this time, ...to become more than medium impact. It's also not beyond the realm of possibility that a significant enough low is spawned and stem winds just too far S-E and we watch an 'eye' like feature with an impressive gyre on satellite from just too far away ... rotating yet farther beyond reach.

It's always a cruel lesson when something like that happens, because the signal is realized ...in full.

Anyway, it seems clear to me that there is destructive wave interference emerging out of this so far.  It is not beyond the realm of possibility that a solution like the GGEM's, which really doesn't perform with the leading (12th/13th) inject into the arena so well, in lieu of a much more impressive and meaningful impact cyclogenesis with that following - closer to the 13-14th as Heisy et al have observed of the 00z suite.  It's ensemble mean is tepid on that idea, however. 

Everyone's seen the GFS's last couple of cycles ...and it's opting for the series of systems - we mentioned at some point along the way ... these signals can end up multi -  to atone for this period of time. It really has 3 events there.  It's managed to figure a way to get to express its native progressivity bias in the midst of a slowing pattern... pretty amazing actually. 

While the Euro seems like it just caught up between the two in that destructive interference and ends up failing on both wave spaces. 

Meanwhile, the EPS/GEFs seem to agree more on the first wave space related cyclogenesis as dominant, but those solutions are too shallow to be objectively considered major events - even though there are some deep members. It's not exactly a raging storm vibe when the trend of those numbers has shrunk, as well as the spatial presentation of the mean.  It's seems likely to me that the ensemble means are also picking up on some negative interference. 

All and all ..it's not been a very friendly to winter enthusiasts, last 24 hours of guidance, as they are doing whatever is imaginable to construct the least realization out of what is suggestively still quite possible during the 10th through the ides of the month.   That's just the reality ...or my take on it as of this morning.

[mahk_webstah]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The poor girls just wanna have fun

Very impressive snow clearing.  You’re at a Kevin level.  Look at those lines.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It improves but digs to the SE just a bit outside for us. Regardless, that’s ose to a burial. Starts to curve north last second. 

Ya I mean looks better for NYC , Maybe SW Ct 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It improves but digs to the SE just a bit outside for us. Regardless, that’s ose to a burial. Starts to curve north last second. 

Not a bad spot at this lead time. Eastern zones favored.

[Heisy]

On the euro at least this is looking more and more like a W -> E vort pass so it’s all about the latitude of the main energy as it heads E.


.

[ORH_wxman]

Kind of an interesting model battle....GFS suite has been more amped while Euro suite has been a little suppressed. Often see it the other way around in these systems.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya I mean looks better for NYC , Maybe SW Ct 

Miller B…I favor emaatt. This shifted away from a biggie but I’m hedging a good storm that delivers late for eastern zones. 

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Miller B…I favor emaatt. This shifted away from a biggie but I’m hedging a good storm that delivers late for eastern zones. 

Eastern zones need a good wind direction. Anything ENE, E, SE and it’s game over. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Eastern zones need a good wind direction. Anything ENE, E, SE and it’s game over. 

Anything EOR is eastern zones to me lol. 

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Eastern zones need a good wind direction. Anything ENE, E, SE and it’s game over. 

I love a good NNE wind

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kind of an interesting model battle....GFS suite has been more amped while Euro suite has been a little suppressed. Often see it the other way around in these systems.

...when it was the EPS that first looked so impressive with all this back on those runs between the 3rd and 4th, too ... 

...the more I look at this, it seems like even though the Nina appears to be rapidly decaying as we type, there's still some momentum finger prints in the flow, and it's somehow physically interfering with the onset +d(PNA) ... It's in both the EPS and GEFs, a -1SD to 0 is a definitive mode adjustment, but it may just turn out too shallow in the end..  hmm

[STILL N OF PIKE]

So the models may have overdone western ridging For a few runs over a week out ..in a year with them continually having too high heights in SW at 7-10 day lead times related to general Nina influences . And now small differences in what’s left of a modeled PNA could determine if this is a solid moderate event or perhaps less

..thou I’m sure there is more at play here ..maybe if the vort Max was more of a beast that could make up for less of a +PNA for the area the energy traverses ?

[CoastalWx]

There is no ridge spike for this weekend. In fact you have a trough hitting the PAC NW. We may see some ridging over the Rockies next week though if guidance is correct.

[NorEastermass128]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Anything EOR is eastern zones to me lol. 

For me, west of 495 and there be dragons. I’d be salivating up in NNE. Chicken coups will be indistinguishable from the Tahoe pictures in the other thread.