Heisy Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 2:42 AM, Heisy said: Each run after last nights 00z killer has trended worst…certainly seems like a trend to me.Look at last nights run with PNA pushing towards the Idaho sweet spot vs latest 18z. The 6z eps this morning ticked negatively as well I just left it out. If that trend continues I wouldn’t be shocked if this ULL closes off and shoots across PA (depending on its initial latitude) and straight out to sea.I’m rooting for a MECS/HECS as much as the next guy, trust me on that one, but these aren’t trends I’d like to see personally. Here’s to a good 00z, long way to go…It’s just not a coincidence we’re seeing a weaker wave run after run today on the EPS with this PNA response. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 2:47 AM, Heisy said: Look at last nights run with PNA pushing towards the Idaho sweet spot vs latest 18z. The 6z eps this morning ticked negatively as well I just left it out. If that trend continues I wouldn’t be shocked if this ULL closes off and shoots across PA (depending on its initial latitude) and straight out to sea. I’m rooting for a MECS/HECS as much as the next guy, trust me on that one, but these aren’t trends I’d like to see personally. Here’s to a good 00z, long way to go… It’s just not a coincidence we’re seeing a weaker wave run after run today on the EPS with this PNA response. Expand 12z looked great today, though. not seeing the issue there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 We remain optimistic , let’s see what 0z eps does 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 1:15 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Why bother…it won’t be any different than every other storm this season. We might as well just shut down the board. Expand No changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 This could be the most important 00z model run of the lifetimes of anyone born since 11 p.m. Friday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 2:47 AM, Heisy said: Look at last nights run with PNA pushing towards the Idaho sweet spot vs latest 18z. The 6z eps this morning ticked negatively as well I just left it out. If that trend continues I wouldn’t be shocked if this ULL closes off and shoots across PA (depending on its initial latitude) and straight out to sea. I’m rooting for a MECS/HECS as much as the next guy, trust me on that one, but these aren’t trends I’d like to see personally. Here’s to a good 00z, long way to go… It’s just not a coincidence we’re seeing a weaker wave run after run today on the EPS with this PNA response. Expand 12z reduced the huggers/inland runners so not all bad. I don’t think we need a stout +pna either…but yes that’s a pna shift today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 3:16 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 12z reduced the huggers/inland runners so not all bad. I don’t think we need a stout +pna either…but yes that’s a pna shift today. Expand I think we table the HECS deal if this trend doesn't reverse by tomorrow. These death spiral medium range trends this year never end well...especially ones involving western heights. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 2:55 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: We remain optimistic , let’s see what 0z eps does Expand Careful, optimism is highly triggering. You keep that glass half empty at all times. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 FWIW the ICON made a really nice improvement with the PNA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 3:20 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we table the HECS deal if this trend doesn't reverse by tomorrow. These death spiral medium range trends this year never end well...especially ones involving western heights. Expand Yeah, feels like in any season if you start seeing the medium range become more pedestrian then its over. Likely because HECS don’t grow on trees too… they like to fail in the mid-range. But hopefully it at least leads to a trackable event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Looks like some big changes on the gfs, I can’t really tell if they are good or bad though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 3:33 AM, powderfreak said: Yeah, feels like in any season if you start seeing the medium range become more pedestrian then its over. Likely because HECS don’t grow on trees too… they like to fail in the mid-range. But hopefully it at least leads to a trackable event. Expand No thanks, go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 4:00 AM, George001 said: Looks like some big changes on the gfs, I can’t really tell if they are good or bad though Expand I'll wager a guess considering the silence...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 4:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll wager a guess considering the silence...lol Expand they were good, just not enough. GFS has been absolutely lost with this setup, though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 4:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll wager a guess considering the silence...lol Expand Low is way north, over central Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 4:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll wager a guess considering the silence...lol Expand Looks like an EMA special. Congrats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Wait a sec it looks really good at hour 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Not a huge storm but better than 18z, good start to the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Canadian looked better early on but the wave on its heels ended that…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Rays blog killed it Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 There goes my chase trip. Thanks tip heisy and raySent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 I’m telling you…1956 had the initial quick hitting critter followed by the big boy loosely similar to the GFS. I remember the 4-6 on Friday and the feet Sunday afternoon through Monday in 56. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 4:39 AM, weathafella said: I’m telling you…1956 had the initial quick hitting critter followed by the big boy loosely similar to the GFS. I remember the 4-6 on Friday and the feet Sunday afternoon through Monday in 56.Cmc gets youSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 0z UKMET is just north of Bermuda at hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 4:46 AM, Thunderblizzard said: 0z UKMET is just north of Bermuda at hour 144. Expand I take it that 750 miles se of benchmark is not good , thankfully it’s on an island . Gfs looked good enough for me , 6-12 on weekend and then a slow crawling coastal two days later (which verbatim is a tad too mild for E mass but couldn’t really care ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 4:46 AM, Thunderblizzard said: 0z UKMET is just north of Bermuda at hour 144. Expand Crazy uncle always been flighty as hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 "The perfect storm at day 7 hasn't been reproduced in the past few hours! How could this happen? Who could see this coming?" Might be falling on deaf ears, but its same same. Damn. Playbook. Every time. I guess people like the ups and downs? Or they truly just can't see or understand that most modeled snowstorms don't come true. If it happens, cool. **It looks like a conducive synoptic-scale pattern for a chance of snow.** Maybe this is like telling people to not be heartbroken over sports since they don't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 4:46 AM, Thunderblizzard said: 0z UKMET is just north of Bermuda at hour 144. Expand Didn't it give us like 8 feet of snow at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 On 3/6/2023 at 4:34 AM, Ji said: There goes my chase trip. Thanks tip heisy and raySent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkI still got my bags packed, waiting on the 00z run to confirm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 GEFS look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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