Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Wow

Ya, that would be very nice. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That excludes the next 24 hours.  Qpf and snow map below…

 

Yeah, I don’t need to see that again. I’ll channel my inner Ray on that porking.  

[cleetussnow]

The Ukie has me right in the jack 30 inches. Sweet 

[Henry's Weather]

52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hugely agree there ( bold)...As I was just expressing to OceanStWx  ( Eric? I think it is -), I feel the primary sensitivity more relates to that handling. there is a change in the larger scaled wave exertion arriving from the d(PNA).  

when have the models ever been extraordinarily clever when it comes to handling a mode shift. 

  ....this is yesterday(left) vs last night's(right) PNA ...it is showing both d(PNA) and +d(trend)

This event really is an Archembault, ( after that research related to statistical correlations with indexes and higher scaling precipitation events over eastern N/A) recovery ordeal.  That is a total 1 standard deviation rise over a short span of time, with a mass-field that is HUGE - sufficiently large in both respects, a major player is an entirely acceptable assumption.  Adding in the west <-- fading black through central Canada, supplies a wave spacing negative geopotential anomaly argument right near WV give or take... so this all just timing perfectly, that a west eject trough would pass through that constructive interference region over eastern mid latitudes.

That's what these telecons illustrate, without the actual advent showing up ( very well ...I'm not sure what the immediate recent runs look like - but given the din in here, the UKMET and may be ? ) ... just yet.  

This is a really great find. It's best to train our minds on the boundary parameters that "create the box" where an event can take place, rather than focus on the ultimate final product of all the various parts interacting in high resolution.

 

Ie: at day 7, tracking ensemble telleconnector flux is the most prudent deployment of our attention if we wish to keep expectations in check, while also tracking meaningful ensemble trends. We can get away from the flashy colors and towards the overarching mechanism.

 

I'm sure someone can use the magnitude of telleconnector flux for the three principle domains to find "magnitude" analogs, even if they aren't necessarily perfect structural analogs.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I was just asking for 3-4” QPF bomb of a storm . That is getting close 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

53 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It absolutely does. I just want to see it at D2 and not D6. 

Or both ideally

[tavwtby]

37 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

that hurts...see what I did there

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

that hurts...see what I did there

That superbowl was made crap by that final call... unfortunate

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Or both ideally

Yes, I would like every episode of As the Weenies Turn to be action filled, all the way through the finale. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Interesting thing about the gfs is it amps up the wave behind it and turns it into a strong storm just a couple days after the 1st wave whiffs. That second threat is still within the timeframe given for this thread too.

It's got wave interference (destructive).  But I also feel - in knowing the GFS native biases... - that this model is not very well qualified to recognize the potentials embedded/native to patterns that are differentiating toward slowing down/curved structures. 

The success of a +PNAP ( getting more pronounced) implies W-E motions in the whole field are inherently slowing down in order for the emergence of more N-S meridian synoptics. 

Here's the thing... the GFS has a subtle, but non-zero/significant enough to be noticed tendency, to accelerate toward progressivity.  Putting these two facets together, the former slowing down vs the latter speeding up, they are obviously competing aspects.  It makes me suspect that the GFS is lesser likely to handle this particular D9 - D16 period of the month very well ( a broad brushed span of time in which these events are less conformed to faster flow in general - )

It's like the last system was in a fast flow pattern that is a better fit for the GFS. It may be why it stabilized into a stubborn continuity that lasted so many days prior to this event.  Even though it ultimately ended up a bit too far S with cold and snow result ... different analysis. 

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

This is a really great find. It's best to train our minds on the boundary parameters that "create the box" where an event can take place, rather than focus on the ultimate final product of all the various parts interacting in high resolution.

 

Ie: at day 7, tracking ensemble telleconnector flux is the most prudent deployment of our attention if we wish to keep expectations in check, while also tracking meaningful ensemble trends. We can get away from the flashy colors and towards the overarching mechanism.

 

I'm sure someone can use the magnitude of telleconnector flux for the three principle domains to find "magnitude" analogs, even if they aren't necessarily perfect structural analogs.

I've often thought that would be a neat study...yeah.   H. Archembault's papers/thesis work in the mid 1990s is the closest to that, but it doesn't go as deep, not parsing out the PNA's spacial and temporal magnitudes wrt to what storm events were observed - that kind of minute scale. 

Like a study that says, say, ' therefore 90% of 8" snowfalls took place between a +.7 and +.9 standard deviation +PNA' as an example?  

that would be interesting.   Then, if you make that a three-way between the NAO and EPO ... the intersections would also be interesting. In general, though... most people with a-priori in the field know that at a baser level, changing index modes are correlative.  I guess in a purer practical sense, does it really offer much more to have some series of algorithms that says 8" correlates in this x-y-z nexus of teleconnector convergence?  Most of which is intuitive.    

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've often thought that would be a neat study...yeah.   H. Archembault's papers/thesis work in the mid 1990s is the closest to that, but it doesn't go as deep, not parsing out the PNA's spacial and temporal magnitudes wrt to what storm events were observed - that kind of minute scale. 

Like a study that says, say, ' therefore 90% of 8" snowfalls took place between a +.7 and +.9 standard deviation +PNA' as an example?  

that would be interesting.   Then, if you make that a three-way between the NAO and EPO ... the intersections would also be interesting. In general, though... most people with a-priori in the field know that at a baser level, changing index modes are correlative.  I guess in a purer practical sense, does it really offer much more to have some series of algorithms that says 8" correlates in this x-y-z nexus of teleconnector convergence?  Most of which is intuitive.    

My main research interest would be deltaSD case studies. "In the 5 day period surrounding a +-1 flux in PNA or NAO, how often does significant east coast cyclogenesis occur?" Or something like that

[Heisy]

One negative from the run is the energy behind the system has strengthened and sped up, this is causing it to kind of push the main ULL east at the end, doesn’t really allow to tug westward.


.

[WxWatcher007]

Euro came through with a last second save because that looked like crap at 144-150.

[Henry's Weather]

Imagine if 0z hadn't been a HECS. I'll take it!

[Henry's Weather]

Sub 990 on the benchmark, pretty good

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just keep it in the strike zone, that’s all.

[Typhoon Tip]

We're doing play by plays on runs that aren't ( individually) very likely to verify ... but, the Euro was slightly flatter with the western ridge after the impulse was ejected through.  That is causing less total meridian (N/S ) structure to the whole field E of 100W ... such that this run gets slightly less constructive feedback. The 500 mb tracks slightly N of the 00z, ...the surface deepens at a slower rate, ... weaker response over all... All these are consequences. 

But again... these are are bouncing around for now.

[Heisy]

We're doing play by plays on runs that aren't ( individually) very likely to verify ... but, the Euro was slightly flatter with the western ridge after the impulse was ejected through.  That is causing less total meridian (N/S ) structure to the whole field E of 100W ... such that this run gets slightly less constructive feedback. The 500 mb tracks slightly N of the 00z, ...the surface deepens at a slower rate, ... weaker response over all... All these are consequences. 
But again... these are are bouncing around for now.

Yes exactly that’s what I was saying in my earlier post. Really didn’t allow the low to tug west once it deepened. Noise at this range still, long way to go.


.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yes exactly that’s what I was saying in my earlier post. Really didn’t allow the low to tug west once it deepened. Noise at this range still, long way to go.


.

This is looking like your best potential for a chase . Thou Buffalo had 2 that were very worthy 

[Heisy]

This is looking like your best potential for a chase . Thou Buffalo had 2 that were very worthy 

Yea that’s my hope right now. Don’t see a ton of hope down here in Philly unless primary shifts a lot farther S, but I’m really hoping for a NE bomb.

At least it won’t be life threatening like a chase to buff was lol


.

[Torch Tiger]

NOGAPS is a hit.   lock it! 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

That excludes the next 24 hours.  Qpf and snow map below…

 

Probably not done yet at 7 am Sunday 

[brooklynwx99]

this is insane 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is insane 

Hopefully it remains meteorologicallly insane, rather than ultimately driving everyone insane like all of the other noteworthy looks this year lol 

[Damage In Tolland]

Def some 1888 vibes starting to percolate with this 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Def some 1888 vibes starting to percolate with this 

Sunday Funday at the Wood's.

[ma blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Def some 1888 vibes starting to percolate with this 

looks closer to 1978 at 500

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

looks closer to 1978 at 500

1717-esque

[UnitedWx]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

1717-esque

Days and days???