Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, kdxken said:

A lot of people seem to be spiking the football with this next storm.

Who?

[Torch Tiger]

yeah no reason to downplay the blizzard, it's on the way and going to be crippling!

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if we can get that ULL sitting over BC to buckle and interact with the ULL in the Pacific and buckle the PNA... would be explosive. that's pretty much what the ECMWF did

Hugely agree there ( bold)...As I was just expressing to OceanStWx  ( Eric? I think it is -), I feel the primary sensitivity more relates to that handling. there is a change in the larger scaled wave exertion arriving from the d(PNA).  

when have the models ever been extraordinarily clever when it comes to handling a mode shift. 

  ....this is yesterday(left) vs last night's(right) PNA ...it is showing both d(PNA) and +d(trend)

This event really is an Archembault, ( after that research related to statistical correlations with indexes and higher scaling precipitation events over eastern N/A) recovery ordeal.  That is a total 1 standard deviation rise over a short span of time, with a mass-field that is HUGE - sufficiently large in both respects, a major player is an entirely acceptable assumption.  Adding in the west <-- fading black through central Canada, supplies a wave spacing negative geopotential anomaly argument right near WV give or take... so this all just timing perfectly, that a west eject trough would pass through that constructive interference region over eastern mid latitudes.

That's what these telecons illustrate, without the actual advent showing up ( very well ...I'm not sure what the immediate recent runs look like - but given the din in here, the UKMET and may be ? ) ... just yet.  

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hugely agree there ( bold)...As I was just expressing to OceanStWx  ( Eric? I think it is -), I feel the primary sensitivity more relates to that handling. there is a change in the larger scaled wave exertion arriving from the d(PNA).  

when have the models ever been extraordinarily clever when it comes to handling a mode shift. 

  ....this is yesterday(left) vs last night's(right) PNA ...it is showing both d(PNA) and +d(trend)

This event really is an Archembault, ( after that research related to statistical correlations with indexes and higher scaling precipitation events over eastern N/A) recovery ordeal.  That is a total 1 standard deviation rise over a short span of time, with a mass-field that is HUGE - sufficiently large in both respects, a major player is an entirely acceptable assumption.  Adding in the west <-- fading black through central Canada, supplies a wave spacing negative geopotential anomaly argument right near WV give or take... so this all just timing perfectly, that a west eject trough would pass through that constructive interference region over eastern mid latitudes.

That's what these telecons illustrate, without the actual advent showing up ( very well ...I'm not sure what the immediate recent runs look like - but given the din in here, the UKMET and may be ? ) ... just yet.  

the UKMET did, as a matter of fact. full +PNA during the evolution

[Hoth]

12 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

Pretty explosive look on the UKMET.

LBSWFTMFW

[weathafella]

Uncle is a large scale burial by hour 168.  Wow!  Feet nyc to psm 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

trust me, that kind of 500mb evolution presents high end potential

It absolutely does. I just want to see it at D2 and not D6. 

[MuddyWx]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Even George is approaching this with a level head...props there.

[CoastalWx]

Sunday funday for the Uncle. 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the UKMET did, as a matter of fact. full +PNA during the evolution

Bingo!

I think the Euro in honesty deserves an honorable mention there.  But this particular run/model may be the first to 'realize' the wave spacing arguments.

Where and what precisely come of it ... yadda yadda yadda.   

I'll tell ya... this +PNA appears ( tentatively) to be relaying into a much better actual +PNAP ... unlike that Dec cosmic dildo paradigm variant ...

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Clownish to post this, but:

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even George is approaching this with a level head...props there.

mmm  ... Okay, tell ya what ... I'll give credit for the virtue of encouragement/positive re-enforcement along the collective psycho-tactic reformation ( LOL... haha) effort .. .but he still used the word Blizzard.   I'm not sure there wasn't a kind of bargaining effort there that cons us into reading it

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Clear indication the ceiling is high. Whether or not we reach it is tbd and why we do this. 

[EastonSN+]

Really impressed by the GEFS. Nice move towards a good event.

[tavwtby]

I know it's been explained before but indulge me here... what's the difference between the Op run and the ensemble mean, is the op just a member that has more weight, or is the mean of them all factored into the op? that aside, this has a great look this far out, and has for days now, doesn't hurt to mention some of our biggest and best systems have come during the Ides of march, just before equinox seems to be a good time for major storm development. let's hope we hold serve and enjoy tracking something

[SnowGoose69]

The tendency the last 3 years is when we finally get the UKIE on board the Euro goes the other way, so I am sure the 12Z Euro will either be congrats Kalamazoo or Bermuda 

[Heisy]

Uncle is a large scale burial by hour 168.  Wow!  Feet nyc to psm 

Hey bud you have the maps? I was just curious if it spit anything out towards Philly with the CCb development, aka how much for Philly?


.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

GEFS look too suppressed for my liking.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Hey bud you have the maps? I was just curious if it spit anything out towards Philly with the CCb development, aka how much for Philly?


.

[Go Kart Mozart]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Hey bud you have the maps? I was just curious if it spit anything out towards Philly with the CCb development, aka how much for Philly?


.

Verbatim, moderate event for Philly,  even Ptype issues for me.  But that's just for shits and giggles at this point.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS look too suppressed for my liking.

I think I’d rather have it suppressed at this range than running through Long Island Sound because I don’t think this will tick SE the next few days. I want a little space for northward adjustments.

[MuddyWx]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Hey bud you have the maps? I was just curious if it spit anything out towards Philly with the CCb development, aka how much for Philly?


.

 

[Heisy]

GEFS look too suppressed for my liking.

I’d say generally and historically that’s where you want the gfs to be at this time frame. This was the first real run the progression changed towards euro so I’d give it time regardless


.

[Heisy]

Verbatim, moderate event for Philly,  even Ptype issues for me.  But that's just for shits and giggles at this point.

That’s only through 144, wxfella has the maps beyond that. The low was still going through bombogenesis at the end of the free maps


.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

That’s only through 144, wxfella has the maps beyond that. The low was still going through bombogenesis at the end of the free maps


.

Not to sound like a douche, but the impression of 500 mb height and vorticity loop ... where it ends on 144 doesn't require the actual sfc evolution by the trained Met/enthusiasts that know how the lower levels are forced by these mid level-type shenanigans.

That's a chart topper look ...  The 500 mb center, with its -2 or even -3 ST core, ends up in the Bite/abeam of NJ on the next frame ( most likely) and it's easy to envision a very, very deep surface consequence sitting right in the climate cross-hair for PHL-PWM.  It can't really do anything else, if the 96-144 movie is correct   Said deep low would probably capture and do a zig zag or backward yaw/hesitation or even loop somewhere off between the Jersey shore and ACK.  

So I guess of more pragmatic importance ... let's will those antecedent intervals correct - haha.   

[Henry's Weather]

We should go in to the 12z euro watch party knowing that most likely, the verbatim output will not be as sexy as 0z. We should focus on ensembles this far out, and not live and die by vicissitudes. 

Signed,

Someone who can lose serious sleep over storms modeled a week in advance (see March 2017)

[weathafella]

15 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Verbatim, moderate event for Philly,  even Ptype issues for me.  But that's just for shits and giggles at this point.

That excludes the next 24 hours.  Qpf and snow map below…

 

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

That excludes the next 24 hours.  Qpf and snow map below…

 

Wow

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Henry&#x27;s Weather said:

We should go in to the 12z euro watch party knowing that most likely, the verbatim output will not be as sexy as 0z. We should focus on ensembles this far out, and not live and die by vicissitudes. 

Signed,

Someone who can lose serious sleep over storms modeled a week in advance (see March 2017)

Just know; (and I know you do) that the OP runs are gonna vassal-ate all over, and should be taken with a Grain of salt.  Ensembles at this point, as has been said, is the best course of action.