Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[78Blizzard]

12 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

No real reason to look this far out.  Models have been awful all winter.  This thing will change 1,000 times and expect outcome to be vastly different by that time 

Exactly.  We've seen the GFS blow day 6 runs all winter, and now they even blew a day 1 run.  And I'm not just referring to the clown maps either.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Exactly.  We've seen the GFS blow day 6 runs all winter, and now they even blew a day 1 run.  And I'm not just referring to the clown maps either.

Well it’s a weather board…discussion is what is done here. But nobody should be expecting what models have now, as the final product.  

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Well it’s a weather board…discussion is what is done here. But nobody should be expecting what models have now, as the final product.  

Yep. And I’d expect that if people do not want to worry about the storm until closer, take a break from this particular thread and come back in 3 days. 
 

For those who enjoy tracking the changes or watching guidance slowly converge on solutions, then that’s what the thread is for. 

[weathafella]

22 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

No real reason to look this far out.  Models have been awful all winter.  This thing will change 1,000 times and expect outcome to be vastly different by that time 

Why would I not want to look?   

[tavwtby]

as it's been stated many times, the ensembles should be the focus, with an eye on the atmospheric mechanics, until we get within 72 hours where details are ironed out... just happy there's s/w's to track at this point, compared to that horrible stretch from just after Xmas to mid February, although I was gone for most of it. I leave again 3/17, so hoping we get one more before we call it  

[tavwtby]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. And I’d expect that if people do not want to worry about the storm until closer, take a break from this particular thread and come back in 3 days. 
 

For those who enjoy tracking the changes or watching guidance slowly converge on solutions, then that’s what the thread is for. 

absolutely well put

[SnoSki14]

40 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’ll take miller B over A everyday and twice on Sunday.

I remember when miller Bs featured secondary transfers offshore NC/VA or the Delmarva that gave everyone a good hit not just NNE. 

[tavwtby]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I remember when miller Bs featured secondary transfers offshore NC/VA or the Delmarva that gave everyone a good hit not just NNE. 

yeah from a primary that got as far as maybe Cincinnati before the transfer, tracking right up the BM and bombing along the way

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

yeah from a primary that got as far as maybe Cincinnati before the transfer, tracking right up the BM and bombing along the way

It feels like forever since we had a classic BM track. 

[Kitz Craver]

Pike South this winter has been a BM

[Damage In Tolland]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. And I’d expect that if people do not want to worry about the storm until closer, take a break from this particular thread and come back in 3 days. 
 

For those who enjoy tracking the changes or watching guidance slowly converge on solutions, then that’s what the thread is for. 

Discuss the clipper potential Tuesday 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Discuss the clipper potential Tuesday 

Looks south

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Looks south

...and like a different thread

[CoastalWx]

It’s an interesting setup for sure. Feelings or no feelings about winter let’s hope it works out. 

[MuddyWx]

EPS still has that miller B look, favorable for inland SNE into CNE/NNE

[MuddyWx]

GEFS looked better at 12z too. Pretty similar to EPS

[Heisy]

Interaction with the lead wave and one left behind caused this thing to go N, lead wave being slightly stronger didn’t help either. The fact that it went that far N and NE still got a snowstorm says something though…



first image note the spacing between the two waves out west, not good, they morph into one low(Not sure it’s helping or hurting us, but the incoming pac energy is a lot faster this run too. Might help speed it up a bit, or since we’re losing +PNA behind the event won’t allow it to dig as far S

I’m just hoping for a big event to chase, think I’m
Toast down here in Philly so rooting for you guys.





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[STILL N OF PIKE]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s an interesting setup for sure. Feelings or no feelings about winter let’s hope it works out. 

One thing that seems to be missing in most all these Longer range threats this winter is a cold antecedent airmass and a stout Quebec high pressure . It’s been garbage airmass with an occasional mediocre airmass , so I mean being in Nashua ive done fair and NW and N of me has done very well but seems like S SNE sorta needs at least a stout high to have a better shot for a BM track and or locking in NE/NNE ageo flow , esp for Ri and Se  mass , otherwise ...Ya know 

[8611Blizz]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

One thing that seems to be missing in most all these Longer range threats this winter is a cold antecedent airmass and a stout Quebec high pressure . It’s been garbage airmass with an occasional mediocre airmass , so I mean being in Nashua ive done fair and NW and N of me has done very well but seems like S SNE sorta needs at least a stout high to have a better shot for a BM track and or locking in NE/NNE ageo flow , esp for Ri and Se  mass , otherwise Ya know 

Yup. Worth tracking but the later we go on in the month the more that stuff matters, here especially.  

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

One thing that seems to be missing in most all these Longer range threats this winter is a cold antecedent airmass and a stout Quebec high pressure . It’s been garbage airmass with an occasional mediocre airmass , so I mean being in Nashua ive done fair and NW and N of me has done very well but seems like S SNE sorta needs at least a stout high to have a better shot for a BM track and or locking in NE/NNE ageo flow , esp for Ri and Se  mass , otherwise ...Ya know 

Seems like that’s been missing most of the winter.  The mid December event had it and the one which broke snowier a few weeks ago are the only ones I remember-maybe the previous swfe but that event crapped out in MA after giving most of CT the goods.

[Heisy]

18z gfs vs euro at same hour, day 5, like common….one model is going to be severely wrong



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[George001]

Gfs is still way north. It’s buried the energy again, Euro and Canadian eject more energy.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Hoping this ends up so far west we avoid the rain. It’s saturated around here.

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Seems like that’s been missing most of the winter.  The mid December event had it and the one which broke snowier a few weeks ago are the only ones I remember-maybe the previous swfe but that event crapped out in MA after giving most of CT the goods.

yeah, we have yet to have a good antecedent airmass leading up to a s/w, and when cold was present, there was nothing around... this winter in a nutshell

[MuddyWx]

18z Gefs are worse.. not the way we want it to go

[HIPPYVALLEY]

18 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

18z Gefs are worse.. not the way we want it to go

Meh, there's still time to flatten that out.   I'll write it off if we get 4 or 5 more runs in a row that hard cut.

[Cold Miser]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The clowns won’t happen as shown but a good hit inland. 

Story of my life this winter...But "inland" is always so vague.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

21 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Story of my life this winter...But "inland" is always so vague.

Versatile term 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

18z gfs vs euro at same hour, day 5, like common….one model is going to be severely wrong



.

I'd feel better if it were the EURO burying that energy 

[Snowcrazed71]

It is so early to be worrying about if this is going to happen or not come or if this is going to be a cutter or off the coast. It's just great to see that there's going to be something. Maybe this one could be the biggest one of the season or somewhere in the range of this.