Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[Typhoon Tip]

There is likely at least tacit awareness to this, already... something large is implicated. Precisely where, whence, and amplitude/scale ...not withstanding, but that week as we approach the ides of the month is quite saturated with signal. 

A major event is not a declarative here; however, we are in a highly prone scenario between the 10th and 15th of the month.  The idea for this is an early thread for general awareness, but the upside correct-ability of events in that time range is quite a bit larger than anything since the Buffalo massacre back in Dec. 

Though I would be disingenuous if claimed no intrigue at the deterministic Euro, GGEM, GFS ...all making a first attempt at detection, resulting in a kind of buckshot spray of bombs - it's interesting that we typically do get a spray of systems.. but it may be no coincidence that they happen to be very powerful features considering the facets below.  They all have a massive events emerging, but unfortunately, these attempts are too primitive. However, the behavior is vastly more important than specificity at this range ... probably for the next 3 days ( although, I'd venture, if a system emerges in a large enough signal, the models will tend to detect earlier). I would not be shocked ( hint hint) if the 11th and 13th get bright -

That said, I would watch these D9 ..10 emergence with more open mindedness than the usual auto-scoff.  It is also possible that this period would results in more than one event, each less magnificent -so to speak...

Super synoptic: The idea here is a fade in the exertion of the NAO, in tandem with a +d(PNA)...  These are not just spatial interpretive, either.  For the first time since leading the Buffalo event... the observations are both spatial, and numerically indicated in the teleconnector computations.

-(NAO) --> + d(NAO)        +d(PNAP)    

                 ... Which are two, in tandem modal states that has been highly correlative to major events ... ever since these indexes were purposefully codified.

Considering the PNA, in totality we must consider the actual synoptic mode over the continent.  As we know...the PNA domain's geography is truly immense. The index can be negative(positive), but because a lot of the index domain space is situated over the Pacific, these above numerical equivalence of the index may(not) represent as well over the continent, and vice versa...  In this case, that rise in the PNA may actually be doing a disservice to the interpretation over land. The rise is well concerted and achieves a +1.5 or so ( and may correct greater), but, more importantly there are increases in +PNAP ... Real ridging now propagating into the W in recent model tendencies, during the above hemispheric changes ....  That is like taking a lit match into a gas fight.

For right now... there is a spray of big events depending on the model of choice. I am fully convinced this is merely the deterministic guidance versions just 'detecting' the immensely unstable numerical layout of these larger --> shorter scaled forces, those that tend to require major restoring ( index scaled ) events. the 00Z deterministic Euro and the GGEM have almost immediately detected in their extended/respective cinemas. Again, I don't care to comment on the accuracy of either movie - its more important that they have a show.  The GFS has less in the early temporality but goes eye-candy well over the performance horizon. The 06z see started moving toward the 11-12th, where there are bigger signals by the others.  My hunch is that present ensembles also beginning to show some concentration in the 10 thru 13th is probably a good place to start. 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I realize the system here in the foreground needs its attention bandwidth ...but I'm a dork haha

Man, there are some WHOPPER attempts just exploding onto the charts out there.   Granted, they are largely eye-candy being that they are D8+, but you know.   When we are establishing a baseline powderkeg in a 10 year old's club house of explosive potential and some point ... so much eye candy starts to make one wonder.

However so ... I do suspect we are seeing a rather quick emergence in the Mar 11-13th range.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[Typhoon Tip]

Thanks Sey-Mour ...

it's interesting that although the spread is large (geometrically), there are members in there below 970.  

Yeah, I didn't include these ensemble spread products because there's enough already in that missive to send folks to their Sumatriptan

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What I would give for a coastal track or at the very least a classic Miller B with an offshore NC/VA coastal transfer. 

Those tracks have been few & far between 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Thanks Sey-Mour ...

it's interesting that although the spread is large (geometrically), there members below 970 in that.  

Yeah, I didn't include these ensemble spread products because there's enough to already in that missive to send folks to their Sumatriptan

Here’s the GEFS 500mb anomaly 5 day mean from the 10th to 15th … pretty impressive. 
 

 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

looks like i shot this target with my 12ga shotgun.

[CoastalWx]

I'm not sure it we'll see much of a ridge out west outside of the magnitude that's modeled now, for next weekend. That whole H5 look in the PAC up into AK IMO doesn't really argue for a big +PNA ridge. But, I do like the rotting Hudson Bay ridge and that trough in the east is a loaded gun. 

 

But, will it form a low over the BM, or a hugger....TBD.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not sure it we'll see much of a ridge out west outside of the magnitude that's modeled now, for next weekend. That whole H5 look in the PAC up into AK IMO doesn't really argue for a big +PNA ridge. But, I do like the rotting Hudson Bay ridge and that trough in the east is a loaded gun. 

 

But, will it form a low over the BM, or a hugger....TBD.

No one said big PNA ridge, but its at least neutralizing.....big diff from what we have had and more reminiscent of some of our most fruitful patterns.

[40/70 Benchmark]

TBH, I'd assume not have a huge PNA ridge coupled with the block...I'd rather not see BWI challenge my seasonal total.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one said big PNA ridge, but its at least neutralizing.....big diff from what we have had and more reminiscent of some of our most fruitful patterns.

I 'think' what he may also be dancing around ( and I'd agree if so...) is that we may not really "need" a big ridge?

...It's really all about less resistance. Actually all events are constrained by that... But in this case - as you've pointed out - the previous examples (this year) of +PAN were skewed west enough that resistance to mobilizing troughs through the E was higher and well... never happened. Not really.  

Sometimes the presentation of the ridge belies whether or not there is lessening(growing) resistance.  I suspect the ridging all ready prevalent in these runs nods to that, as the axis is (thank f god!) actually over the land mass of d-damn continent for a change.

Scott's right though about the decaying -NAO over H. B.

[TalcottWx]

Don't bother

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, I'd assume not have a huge PNA ridge coupled with the block...I'd rather not see BWI challenge my seasonal total.

 

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I 'think' what he may also be dancing around ( and I'd agree if so...) is that we may not really "need" a big ridge?

...It's really all about less resistance. Actually all events are constrained by that... But in this case - as you've pointed out - the previous examples (this year) of +PAN were skewed west enough that resistance to mobilizing troughs through the E was higher and well... never happened. Not really.  

Sometimes the presentation of the ridge belies whether or not there is lessening(growing) resistance.  I suspect the ridging all ready prevalent in these runs nods to that, as the axis is (thank f god!) actually over the land mass of d-damn continent for a change.

Scott's right though about the decaying -NAO over H. B.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Finally a beefy system ?

[CoastalWx]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one said big PNA ridge, but its at least neutralizing.....big diff from what we have had and more reminiscent of some of our most fruitful patterns.

Well Tip mentioned to expect bigger height changes, not sure I see that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well Tip mentioned to expect bigger height changes, not sure I see that.

Bigger height changes relative to what we've seen? Not a high bar...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Cosgrove thinks the 3/11 system will cut into W NYS, kill the block like the Buff blizzard and end winter.  Good news is he's been wrong all season.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Bigger height changes relative to what we've seen? Not a high bar...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

So you don't think the MJO goes into phase 8?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So you don't think the MJO goes into phase 8?

It's definitely going into 8

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So you don't think the MJO goes into phase 8?

Maybe Tip needs to elaborate. I'm not saying there won't be a ridge, but I don't think it gets much more amplitude than modeled. I took his post as saying guidance is underdoing it. Perhaps, but some of the other H5 features I think limit ridge amplitude. I could see a little more amplitude I suppose.

[George001]

Euro looks more north 

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cosgrove thinks the 3/11 system will cut into W NYS, kill the block like the Buff blizzard and end winter.  Good news is he's been wrong all season.

It does look like a December repeat per Euro. 

And wasn't he correct on the December storm

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Maybe Tip needs to elaborate. I'm not saying there won't be a ridge, but I don't think it gets much more amplitude than modeled. I took his post as saying guidance is underdoing it. Perhaps, but some of the other H5 features I think limit ridge amplitude. I could see a little more amplitude I suppose.

Okay....gotcha.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, George001 said:

Euro looks more north 

We liquid on the op. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

It does look like a December repeat per Euro. 

And was t he correct on the December storm

Euro did not sniff that out. GEM did.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's definitely going into 8

That's my point.

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

What I would give for a coastal track or at the very least a classic Miller B with an offshore NC/VA coastal transfer. 

Those tracks have been few & far between 

Those used to be so commercial way back in the day.  Recently they have become a rarity...

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro did not sniff that out. GEM did.

Cmc has been doing pretty well

 

[SnoSki14]

How fitting for this winter to have two seemingly favorable months Dec & March only to both be bookended by a huge Midwest cutter

Gotta just laugh at some point.