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March 3 High Wind and Severe potential


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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1203 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

TNC051-031830-
/O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-230303T1830Z/
Franklin TN-
1203 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTY...

At 1202 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Huntland, or 10 miles southwest of Winchester,
moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Cowan around 1215 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Beans
Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8625 3506 8626 3523 8598 3499 8595
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 242DEG 52KT 3505 8618

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

 

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One thing to watch is where the line pivot is. The further north up the line you go, the more the storms are moving NE vs more ENE on the lower end. At some point those cell will start to separate and become more cellular. On the lower end of the pivot, you sometimes can develop a cell with it’s own meso feature. That’s what happened on Wednesday night with the tornado In Chattanooga. Only this time the shear is more favorable.


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Mesoscale Discussion 0247
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Fri Mar 03 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Tennessee into parts of northern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 031912Z - 032045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An additional watch will likely be needed for parts of
eastern Tennessee and northern Georgia. Despite weaker
thermodynamics, strong, veering low-level winds will support a risk
for damaging winds and brief tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...A fast moving line of storms will continue eastward
through Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama. Strong wind fields
continue to be sampled by regional VAD data. Some cloud cover has
kept temperatures a bit subdued, particularly in north Georgia.
Parts of eastern Tennessee have warmed into the mid 70s F. Between
cooler temperatures, decreased moisture, and warmer temperatures
aloft (especially with southward extent), the overall thermodynamic
environment will likely be weaker than areas to the west. However,
storm motion in addition to 50-70 kts within the boundary layer
would support a threat for damaging winds even with relatively weak
updrafts. Strong low-level shear would also promote some risk for
brief tornadoes within the line of storms. A watch for parts of this
region will likely be needed this afternoon.

..Wendt/Grams.. 03/03/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 34698479 35328439 36228371 36528303 36488267 36088257
35948260 34848317 33808397 33658427 33708460 34018494
34698479
01265993dc2ebffb19dc9b4d6e463f2f.jpg

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SPC AC 031959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Fri Mar 03 2023

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
TENNESSEE INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes and scattered swaths of severe damaging winds are probable
into this evening from Ohio Valley towards the southern
Appalachians.

...20Z Update...

...OH Valley...
An intense mid-level cyclone continues to move northeastward through
the Lower OH Valley. Recent surface analysis placed the associated
surface low near EVV, and sampled substantial pressure falls
(greater than 8 mb over the last 2 hours) downstream across southern
Indiana. Surface analysis also revealed a very sharp warm front
extending eastward from the surface low to about 20 miles north of
LEX (in northern KY), and then more southeastward to about 20 miles
north of JKL. Given the strong mass response, some modest northward
progression of this front is still possible, despite widespread
cloud cover across the OH Valley.

Strong convective line currently ongoing near the surface low will
likely persist for at least the next few hours before the limited
buoyancy associated with the narrowing lead to weakening. However,
the surface low will continue to occlude, limiting downstream
moisture advection and likely keeping buoyancy very limited across
portions of eastern KY, southern OH, and western WV ahead of the
approaching dry slot. As such, the severe threat has decreased
enough to remove Enhanced probabilities.

...Eastern TN/Northern GA/East-Central AL...
As addressed in recently issued MCD #247, a fast-moving line of
storms will continue eastward in eastern TN, east-central AL, and
northern GA. Buoyancy with remain rather limited, due to
displacement from the cyclone. However, ascent along the front will
continue to promote thunderstorms amid the warm and moist air mass
over the region. Strong wind fields will continue to support the
threat for damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes.

..Mosier.. 03/03/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023/

...TN to OH Valleys and the central/southern Appalachians...
Two primary areas of convective activity are ongoing from MS/AL/TN
border area northwest to the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers. Leading
pre-frontal squall, low-topped near the central MS/AL border with
progressively deeper tops northward, will likely persist
east-northeast this afternoon and reach the southern Appalachians by
early evening. With broken cloudiness across AL and richer
boundary-layer moisture, sampled by the 12Z LIX sounding, advecting
north from the central Gulf Coast, this QLCS should ingest the
northern gradient of peak surface-based buoyancy. This should result
in intensification of the squall line with embedded QLCS tornadoes
and damaging winds as the primary hazards.

Farther north, broken convective bands are evident along the
northern periphery of the warm sector near the MS/OH Rivers
confluence, close to the deep surface cyclone. A robust surface
pressure rise-fall couplet and the extreme low to deep-layer shear
should compensate for the meager surface-based buoyancy and likely
yield a mix of low-topped supercells and quasi-linear bowing
segments, as convection rapidly spreads east-northeast. Tornadoes
should be realized in sustained supercells and line-embedded
mesovortices, a few of which could be significant. Given the
supercell wind profiles and morning CAMs suggesting more broken
convection, damaging winds will probably consist of scattered swaths
of severe gusts from 60-80 mph.

Severe potential today will be limited on the southern part by
weakening DCVA and frontal convergence with southward extent, on the
northern end by northward loss of boundary-layer destabilization
away from the warm-frontal zone, and to the east by loss of both
daytime heating and overall lift. As such, the unconditional
probability gradient is kept rather broad on both sides, though the
actual southern/northern/eastern cutoffs of severe could be abrupt.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2016Z (3:16PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0e3109e5d7cb421f1d39e85b1fd7820d.gif

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SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 63
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
North Georgia
Western North Carolina
Western South Carolina
Eastern Tennessee
Far southwest Virginia

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until
800 PM EST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible

SUMMARY...A long-lived QLCS should continue to progress rapidly east
across the southern Appalachians vicinity through early evening.
Damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will be possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Bristol TN
to 30 miles southwest of Athens GA. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 61...WW 62...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25050.

...Grams
b46260162b6e43aa6f15e7436ee3ee3e.gif

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We lost power a few times, but only briefly. Some outages lingering here and there, but fortunately, the event was rather tame around KTRI. Nothing tornadic. Probably had a few strong gusts around 50-60 mph near S. Holston River/Lake area that brought down some trees. Some strong gusts in southern and eastern portions of Sullivan Co. Hope everyone fared as well elsewhere.

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