Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 High wind event likely across the TN Valley. Possibility of straight line winds associated with thunderstorms and tornados. Wind shear visible on OHX radar: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Most of you severe enthusiasts are probably aware of this, but something new to me were "radar pinwheels" https://epod.usra.edu/blog/2008/07/radar-pinwheels-and-wind-shear.html 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Rambler…..what specifically are you looking at on RadarScope that indicates shear? Thanks in advance!!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 @Greyhound Those pinwheels are from storm relative velocity under the super resolution category. The OHX one doesn't look quite as "pinwheely" now, but the the Columbus MS radar does: Sorry to use a different sort of image, but I found that the "classic" storm relative velocity looks more like the images on the website I linked above. Pinwheels aside, I just thought it was pretty incredible to be able to see winds changing with height on plain old radar. Low level moisture is moving SSE --> NNW (green arrow) and then the precip associated with the warm front (I think?) is moving SW --> NE (pink arrow) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Something I found interesting in MRX'S AFD and the most recent day 1 outlook from the SPC is the wording "Winds may be strong enough to tear apart storms and keep them from becoming mature." Can anyone explain to me how that works? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 22 minutes ago, Runman292 said: Something I found interesting in MRX'S AFD and the most recent day 1 outlook from the SPC is the wording "Winds may be strong enough to tear apart storms and keep them from becoming mature." Can anyone explain to me how that works? Wind shear is necessary for long lived storms because it tilts the updrafts and downdrafts away from each other. Allowing them to be independent. Without shear the updraft and downdraft overlap and smother each other. Too much shear (wind) can just rip them apart from each other. Basically decapitating any storm. here is a brief NWS article about it. https://www.weather.gov/ilx/swop-springtopics The hrrr doesn't have any signs of issues with shear for the main line today. Doesn't mean there won't be limiting factors though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 MRX is banging the drum on social media. They want everyone to be award of the impending line of storms. TRI folks, looks like 5:00-7:00ish. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Winds are picking up for sure.NIA 10 min ago reported a 38kt gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Us in Mid/Tn the cap should be gone now ,Window looks between 10-12 for severe,rest is wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 The wind in Knoxville is absolutely dead. No movement at all so I’m going to the driving range. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 In the last 10 minutes we have full sunshine in N Knox. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: In the last 10 minutes we have full sunshine in N Knox . My son has a gymnastics meet in Knoxville tonight,i'll wait until the severe potential to pass then i am headed that way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 You can’t make this up!!!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 My son has a gymnastics meet in Knoxville tonight,i'll wait until the severe potential to pass then i am headed that wayIs it at Premiere?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 IT’s pushing 70 and WAA hasn’t really kicked in yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Is it at Premiere? . GymTek 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 GymTekFriend of mine is helping run that event!! Good luck and safe travels!!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Nashville is just a hair east of the 10% hatched, and I agree. Lines up best with daytime heating going into afternoon. Also the Plateau elevation gives it better access to inflow wind. I don't normally share from EM briefings, but it's basically an adjusted 10% which is public on SPC. Please don't re-share though. Chart is just the diurnal / daytime heating timing. One could drag the red line through Chattanooga and even into northwest Georgia. Don't forget Sand Mountain, AL which is another elevated area. Reasoning below. Other considerations for more specific targets include North Georgia boundary (there as usual) and the Gulf moisture boundary lifting through Alabama. Both should get into Tennessee with a dynamic negatively tilted system (promotes lifting boundaries WF OFB or otherwise). Either intersecting with the prefrontal trough PFT is an area of interest. Interesting with temps/dews the PFT is more quasi-dry line DL today. Anything like a DL always piques my interest in the South. On the other hand very fast storm motion might favor the porch chase. Another scenario is a more forced line with fewer sups. Would favor straight line wind, but it can be particularly strong by leveraging the background wind. High Wind Warning things. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 30 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Nashville is just a hair east of the 10% hatched, and I agree. Lines up best with daytime heating going into afternoon. Also the Plateau elevation gives it better access to inflow wind. I don't normally share from EM briefings, but it's basically an adjusted 10% which is public on SPC. Please don't re-share though. Chart is just the diurnal / daytime heating timing. One could drag the red line through Chattanooga and even into northwest Georgia. Don't forget Sand Mountain, AL which is another elevated area. Reasoning below. Other considerations for more specific targets include North Georgia boundary (there as usual) and the Gulf moisture boundary lifting through Alabama. Both should get into Tennessee with a dynamic negatively tilted system (promotes lifting boundaries WF OFB or otherwise). Either intersecting with the prefrontal trough PFT is an area of interest. Interesting with temps/dews the PFT is more quasi-dry line DL today. Anything like a DL always piques my interest in the South. On the other hand very fast storm motion might favor the porch chase. Another scenario is a more forced line with fewer sups. Would favor straight line wind, but it can be particularly strong by leveraging the background wind. High Wind Warning things. I don't know about all that being accurate. Nashville is smack dab in the center of the 10% significant hatched in areas that came out in the past hour from the SPC. Louisville and Bowling Green are there too. The wind shear profiles and helocity values are going up right now and the storm bands are still at least an hour west of Greater Nashville. The lines are starting to break up into individual storms that are becoming more discrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, kayman said: I don't know about all that being accurate. Nashville is smack dab in the center of the 10% significant hatched in areas that came out in the past hour from the SPC. Louisville and Bowling Green are there too. The wind shear profiles and helocity values are going up right now and the storm bands are still at least an hour west of Greater Nashville. The lines are starting to break up into individual storms that are becoming more discrete. He didnt say there was 0% chance he was referring to later on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Tornado watch for the rest of Middle TN into the western half of East TN until 5:00 PM EST 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Jackson had a wind gust of 54kts,power outages being reported 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 58 minutes ago, Runman292 said: Tornado watch for the rest of Middle TN into the western half of East TN until 5:00 PM EST SEL1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 61 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northwest Georgia Extreme southwest North Carolina Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 1035 AM until 400 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Fast-moving QLCS will spread east-northeast from middle Tennessee and northwest Alabama with damaging winds and embedded tornadoes as the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Crossville TN to 25 miles south southwest of Anniston AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25050. ...Grams 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 It appears for middle TN the high winds outside the storms is going to be the main issue. SPC is having a tough year so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 70/50 tor probs on both the newsest watches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 With this first line that is warned. I have seen much much more intense winds. I don’t see any reason to have that storm warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 SEL2 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 62 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far southeast Illinois Southern Indiana Kentucky * Effective this Friday afternoon from 1210 PM until 500 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely SUMMARY...Low-topped supercells embedded within broken line segments will sweep east-northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley and Kentucky through this afternoon. Tornadoes and damaging winds are the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Louisville KY to 65 miles east southeast of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 61... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 24055. ...Grams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 The sun is out in Farragut and it is very windy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 The low level jet has caught up with the line, especially SE of Nashville. Need to watch and see if those storms become more discrete from the line. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now