NorthArlington101 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't think we disagree here just focusing on different things. My point was there are quite a few members in the mean that do get the qpf up around .5 qpf and those are still rain also! You still like something around the 20th or are we done here until our mid-April headfake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: WB GFS or something else? WB OZZZ. As in the land of. Not 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: What was the set up last January? I don’t remember all the details. 1/29/22 got me for 16 inches at 22f at the time of snowfall. I’m about 15 miles inland from the south / central NJ coast at home at about 70 ft asl. Last January actually had appreciable cold and I snowed with a few different events culminating in the big show the 29th. Definitely my best storm since Jan 2018. The big ACY storm missed to my south or it would’ve been an outstanding Jan, but the theme was available cold and the ability to combine that with waves. It felt very counter to the theme lately and I hold onto it for that reason. The Delmarva did pretty well too I thought, yes? What worked last Jan? Asking genuinely. Again rare combo... poleward EPO ridge in combination with a PNA ridge and a displaced TPV. But even with all that...it was not a snowy winter. Look at a snowfall anomaly map for last winter, it was below avg snowfall over 75% of the east and mid atlantic. A few locations got lucky with some of the progressive waves but the majority had a below avg snowfall year. And yea the pattern only lasted one month but part of that is because its a rare pattern, and part is our snow comes in chunks...sometimes one month has to be it and be epic and get it done. But that pattern while better than this winter of course...is not usually how we are going to get a big snow season. Its a rare combo AND its not even usually a good way to get systems to amplify along the east coast. Basically we got about as lucky as we ever will in that type pattern and it still was only good enough to give us a below avg snowfall year in most places. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No that is wave 2. There are a LOT of perfect track rainstorms in there... oh good. Was afraid we didn’t have the perfect track for a cold march rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: You still like something around the 20th or are we done here until our mid-April headfake? I like just before and after that date. The timing of the waves is coming into better clarity. There will be a wave around the 17th that I think has a chance regardless of what the op runs are showing right now. And I think there might be a wave after the 20th but we are getting really late by then. I am not overly influenced by op runs beyond 150 hours. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I'm getting concerned that the final chapter is almost finished and the book will be for sale on Amazon by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 GFS looks better Friday for our northern and western folks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: GFS looks better Friday for our northern and western folks. Biggest storm of the season for me, barely passes by the record setting .5 I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Biggest storm of the season for me, barely passes by the record setting .5 I got. I’m all in! That would get me to 0.9 for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Looks like gfs puts me in the 1-1.5" stripe for wave 1. Looks tasty... (gosh, how my standards have fallen) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looks like gfs puts me in the 1-1.5" stripe for wave 1. Looks tasty... (gosh, how my standards have fallen) Yeah but with the ground and air temp... it will not amount to much more than white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 2nd wave looks like shit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Biggest ‘storm’ of the year for me. Bring it home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Bring it home here please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I moved posts to the new thread. anything that's not the multiple waves, can stay here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 39 minutes ago, mappy said: I moved posts to the new thread. anything that's not the multiple waves, can stay here. How about our next “window” and our next “primed pattern”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How about our next “window” and our next “primed pattern”? call it what you want lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How about our next “window” and our next “primed pattern”? I would guess December 21st... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Next winter, there should be a standing, pinned thread titled "Days 15-20 Look Like the Best Window for DC Snow." 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Despite the developing El Nino, the Pacific Hadley Cell is not changing (-PDO). http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 On 3/8/2023 at 3:37 PM, paulythegun said: Next winter, there should be a standing, pinned thread titled "Days 15-20 Look Like the Best Window for DC Snow." I think part of what's going on is this idea that we can outforecast the models. Looking for potential is one thing...wishcasting (which was prevalent for several days in this thread) is...well, it's wishcasting lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Despite the developing El Nino, the Pacific Hadley Call is not changing (-PDO). http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html I keep warning people that a nino alone might not alleviate that problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I keep warning people that a nino alone might not alleviate that problem That's why despite that I'm still rooting for a legit niño next season...For me, getting one is gonna determine everything for years to come. If what has been our best enso state can't do it, nothing can, unfortunately. And in that case I'm gonna step back from this a bit. I mean it makes me sad it may be our future, but as I said in the other thread, gotta believe that we'll get used to it eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 35 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's why despite that I'm still rooting for a legit niño next season...For me, getting one is gonna determine everything for years to come. If what has been our best enso state can't do it, nothing can, unfortunately. And in that case I'm gonna step back from this a bit. I mean it makes me sad it may be our future, but as I said in the other thread, gotta believe that we'll get used to it eventually. Hadley Cell's are just really expanding north right now. I'd expect an active Atlantic Hurricane season if El Nino conditions don't develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 So.... It turns out Doug K. Was too aggressive with his winter snow forecast. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 joke of a storm mostly dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 Do we use this threat to talk about the potential glorious weather late next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Look at this, guys. More of the same pattern (warm underneath -NAO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Just a monster -PNA on 12z GFS ensembles right now through Easter and beyond. Next Winter El Nino and -QBO likely gives us some Stratosphere warmings(high correlations), but I wonder if the -NAO will kryptonite again like this Winter. It may do good with a El Nino-connected+PNA temporarily, but I think in the bigger picture it is going to even out as a generally unfavorable pattern (I'm talking about Hadley Cell expansion). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 My threat window It didn't snow, but I think I got a favorable pattern correct. -PNA consistency killed the snow chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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