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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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Trend is slowly being our friend for a change. Certainly not going to see the big hit JMAs been teasing us with for wave 1… but there’s enough time IMO for a 1-3” type event to come together like euro is depicting. Things coming together a bit too late / east at D4 isn’t an awful place to be given the seasonal trend of things amping up as we approach game time.

Wave 2 and 3 are by far our better chance at something significant, but as a Highlander, I am certainly not going to write off wave 1 entirely at this range. No way.

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Trend is slowly being our friend for a change. Certainly not going to see the big hit JMAs been teasing us with for wave 1… but there’s enough time IMO for a 1-3” type event to come together like euro is depicting. Things coming together a bit too late / east at D4 isn’t an awful place to be given the seasonal trend of things amping up as we approach game time.

Wave 2 and 3 are by far our better chance at something significant, but as a Highlander, I am certainly not going to write off wave 1 entirely at this range. No way.

Even 1 inch takes us off the list of snow infamy...if we can't at least get that, something wrong, lol

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What happened the other time that was the highest mean of the entire winter?

Comparing means in completely different patterns. We had a garbage pattern all winter outside of a week or two in December. I get your pessimism. We all do. But saying it won’t play out simply because it didn’t before isn’t exactly a legit reason to downplay the possibility. I get it though man. It’s rough out here.
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3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Trend is slowly being our friend for a change. Certainly not going to see the big hit JMAs been teasing us with for wave 1… but there’s enough time IMO for a 1-3” type event to come together like euro is depicting. Things coming together a bit too late / east at D4 isn’t an awful place to be given the seasonal trend of things amping up as we approach game time.

Wave 2 and 3 are by far our better chance at something significant, but as a Highlander, I am certainly not going to write off wave 1 entirely at this range. No way.

I see just TV Snow with the temps being shown. GFS never gets below freezing for most of us. 

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If it's in the New England thread its probably good for them...which is bad for us.  

It was from NYC, and the frame before isn’t exactly a death sentence for our forum either. Plenty of lows in positions we can score in. I get what you’re saying, but that’s not really the case with what I shared.
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I see just TV Snow with the temps being shown. GFS never gets below freezing for most of us. 

Depends on rates for sure. I watched it snow a foot this weekend with temps just above freezing. Rates overcame. Sure, it melted quick, but I’d take 1-3” up here from wave 1 in a heartbeat. Especially with wave 2 right on its heels.


Rates would be a concern for sure. No models are showing the thump we’d need to overcome.
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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:


Comparing means in completely different patterns. We had a garbage pattern all winter outside of a week or two in December. I get your pessimism. We all do. But saying it won’t play out simply because it didn’t before isn’t a legit reason to downplay the possibility.

:blink:

I asked a legit question and I've been optimistic asf for the mid March period since like Feb 24 or so. I think you got the wrong guy pal.

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:blink:
I asked a legit question and I've been optimistic asf for the mid March period since like Feb 24 or so. I think you got the wrong guy pal.

lol, it’s ok Ralph. No need to get defensive. You’ve certainly been one of the few alongside me, PSU, cape and Brooklyn who’ve been optimistic.


.
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Jan 25 2000 was a phased miller A/B type event where N/S dropped in and phased with southern energy. That one worked because of how far south the primary was and how deep the N/S was able to dive. Euro and other models show a more Northern stream dominant event, the full capture happens at a more northern latitude.

Look where the capture is happening during 2000 vs what last night’s 00z and todays 12z euro are showing. We’d have to get a huge shift to be in play for storm 2.

798b802786a43c30a12314b5a88181a2.jpg
0988cd9c064749dd3df93c4600d065bd.jpg



f883bdb683fd6bba54167802f803becc.gif


.

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JMA and Euro on board....CMC extremely close. I'm not mad.

GFS missed the phase with the southern vort pretty early and the N/S energy is farther W than euro. Here are the same two pieces of energy and there differences between both of the models at day 5. How we combine these two to get them to phase, tuck, and occlude at our latitude I don’t know. Randy will like my artistic improvements

Also note the differences with the small Canadian vort that is N of the main northern stream disturbance on the euro vs what the GFS shows
f7963021a495584bde21a2ec923afc6a.gif


.
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49 minutes ago, Heisy said:


GFS missed the phase with the southern vort pretty early and the N/S energy is farther W than euro. Here are the same two pieces of energy and there differences between both of the models at day 5. How we combine these two to get them to phase, tuck, and occlude at our latitude I don’t know. Randy will like my artistic improvements

Also note the differences with the small Canadian vort that is N of the main northern stream disturbance on the euro vs what the GFS shows
f7963021a495584bde21a2ec923afc6a.gif


.

We need the more amplified wave of the euro with the wave spacing of the Gfs 

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