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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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EPS is really interesting for early next week. vigorous S/W diving through the Lakes, SS vort out in front and the mean is sniffing out a phase. PNA ridge is also ideal. caution is advised due to the lack of true arctic cold, but this is dynamic as all hell
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-8708800.thumb.png.9978b01ea19e7ebe970702269600292a.png

I know I’ve come off as a negative Nancy to you lately, it’s not on purpose. I don’t think it’s a great look for mid Atlantic dc—> Philly snow outside far NW and mountains. With a NS ULL diving S like that We’d need the low to bomb and occlude at our latitude, eps does that way farther N. There are a few eps members that maybe show that, but in general this event clearly favors NE/interior. Still time to maybe change that whole dynamic, but I wouldn’t bet on it…

Now the day 10 setup on the euro OP? That’s how we get snow here….


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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

In terms of snow probabilities we just had by far our best run of the season at 12z.  I will post in a few minutes when the last few days of the EPS updates...but for the first time all year the guidance is saying it SHOULD snow at least some in the next 15 days.  

already a 90% chance of >1" and 50-60% of >3" at hour 288 can't wait to see what it is at the end of the run

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4 minutes ago, Heisy said:


I know I’ve come off as a negative Nancy to you lately, it’s not on purpose. I don’t think it’s a great look for mid Atlantic dc—> Philly snow outside far NW and mountains. With a NS ULL diving S like that We’d need the low to bomb and occlude at our latitude, eps does that way farther N. There are a few eps members that maybe show that, but in general this event clearly favors NE/interior. Still time to maybe change that whole dynamic, but I wouldn’t bet on it…

Now the day 10 setup on the euro OP? That’s how we get snow here….


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I agree, but with a setup that dynamic, I would roll the dice. almost always has to be a bomb to really get any appreciable snow in mid-March

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6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

high amplitude is an understatement. the Nina is dying

GEFS.png.da982850adec059a38ca6c6eebf90854.png

Yes nina is dead, but I’m curious if the models will change and shift h5 tracks further south and bring colder air further south if they use mjo 8 as initialized conditions rather than projecting into it from phase 7. If my question makes any sense?

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3 minutes ago, Heisy said:


I know I’ve come off as a negative Nancy to you lately, it’s not on purpose. I don’t think it’s a great look for mid Atlantic dc—> Philly snow outside far NW and mountains. With a NS ULL diving S like that We’d need the low to bomb and occlude at our latitude, eps does that way farther N. There are a few eps members that maybe show that, but in general this event clearly favors NE/interior. Still time to maybe change that whole dynamic, but I wouldn’t bet on it…

Now the day 10 setup on the euro OP? That’s how we get snow here….


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yea, I love his enthusiasm...but I think he over estimates our probabilities from NS dominant systems.  There is a pretty extreme cutoff between Philly and NY where those suddenly become a LOT more favorable.  We get a much lower % of our snowfall south of Philly from NS waves than they do.  We are really close to each other geographically so I can forgive him for that...but we need a LOT more luck for that setup to work out than NYC does.  A SS dominant wave coming at us from the west of southwest with some confluence ahead of it...that is really our only high probability snowfall scenario and its why DC gets so much less snow than NY.  They have a lot more ways to win than we do.  

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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Yes nina is dead, but I’m curious if the models will change and shift h5 tracks further south and bring colder air further south if they use mjo 8 as initialized conditions rather than projecting into it from phase 7. If my question makes any sense?

i feel like in times we were in a bad mjo phase models trended warmer as soon as it initialized in said phase so i wonder if the same applies here

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The combined snow probabilities through March 22 at BWI from todays 12z models

1": 68%

3": 43%

6": 19%

but...for the first time all year the GEPS is the least snowy... which is ok because they have been the only ensembles that have ever been very snowy all winter and were always dead wrong...if we take a EPS/GEFS only combo the probabilities are 77%, 47%, 23%.  

Either way our best run of the season in terms of snowfall probabilities.  

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In terms of snow probabilities we just had by far our best run of the season at 12z.  I will post in a few minutes when the last few days of the EPS updates...but for the first time all year the guidance is saying it SHOULD snow at least some in the next 15 days.  

asking for a friend but did the JMA show 2 feet of snow again for this weekend for us?

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The combined snow probabilities through March 22 at BWI from todays 12z models

1": 68%

3": 43%

6": 19%

but...for the first time all year the GEPS is the least snowy... which is ok because they have been the only ensembles that have ever been very snowy all winter and were always dead wrong...if we take a EPS/GEFS only combo the probabilities are 77%, 47%, 23%.  

Either way our best run of the season in terms of snowfall probabilities.  

Will would disagree

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In terms of snow probabilities we just had by far our best run of the season at 12z.  I will post in a few minutes when the last few days of the EPS updates...but for the first time all year the guidance is saying it SHOULD snow at least some in the next 15 days.  

stop being positive...its getting kinda creepy. Why dont you start a "is it ever going to get cold again" thread

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The combined snow probabilities through March 22 at BWI from todays 12z models

1": 68%

3": 43%

6": 19%

but...for the first time all year the GEPS is the least snowy... which is ok because they have been the only ensembles that have ever been very snowy all winter and were always dead wrong...if we take a EPS/GEFS only combo the probabilities are 77%, 47%, 23%.  

Either way our best run of the season in terms of snowfall probabilities.  

That's great.  Only one of the 51 EPS members of the 12 UT suite gives the DC area no snow over the next 15 days.   Mean is the 2nd highest its been all winter. 

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