psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 In terms of snow probabilities we just had by far our best run of the season at 12z. I will post in a few minutes when the last few days of the EPS updates...but for the first time all year the guidance is saying it SHOULD snow at least some in the next 15 days. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 mean after wave 1: mean after wave 2: mean at end of the run/after potentially wave 3: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 EPS is really interesting for early next week. vigorous S/W diving through the Lakes, SS vort out in front and the mean is sniffing out a phase. PNA ridge is also ideal. caution is advised due to the lack of true arctic cold, but this is dynamic as all hellI know I’ve come off as a negative Nancy to you lately, it’s not on purpose. I don’t think it’s a great look for mid Atlantic dc—> Philly snow outside far NW and mountains. With a NS ULL diving S like that We’d need the low to bomb and occlude at our latitude, eps does that way farther N. There are a few eps members that maybe show that, but in general this event clearly favors NE/interior. Still time to maybe change that whole dynamic, but I wouldn’t bet on it…Now the day 10 setup on the euro OP? That’s how we get snow here…. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: In terms of snow probabilities we just had by far our best run of the season at 12z. I will post in a few minutes when the last few days of the EPS updates...but for the first time all year the guidance is saying it SHOULD snow at least some in the next 15 days. already a 90% chance of >1" and 50-60% of >3" at hour 288 can't wait to see what it is at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: I know I’ve come off as a negative Nancy to you lately, it’s not on purpose. I don’t think it’s a great look for mid Atlantic dc—> Philly snow outside far NW and mountains. With a NS ULL diving S like that We’d need the low to bomb and occlude at our latitude, eps does that way farther N. There are a few eps members that maybe show that, but in general this event clearly favors NE/interior. Still time to maybe change that whole dynamic, but I wouldn’t bet on it… Now the day 10 setup on the euro OP? That’s how we get snow here…. . I agree, but with a setup that dynamic, I would roll the dice. almost always has to be a bomb to really get any appreciable snow in mid-March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: high amplitude is an understatement. the Nina is dying Yes nina is dead, but I’m curious if the models will change and shift h5 tracks further south and bring colder air further south if they use mjo 8 as initialized conditions rather than projecting into it from phase 7. If my question makes any sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: I know I’ve come off as a negative Nancy to you lately, it’s not on purpose. I don’t think it’s a great look for mid Atlantic dc—> Philly snow outside far NW and mountains. With a NS ULL diving S like that We’d need the low to bomb and occlude at our latitude, eps does that way farther N. There are a few eps members that maybe show that, but in general this event clearly favors NE/interior. Still time to maybe change that whole dynamic, but I wouldn’t bet on it… Now the day 10 setup on the euro OP? That’s how we get snow here…. . yea, I love his enthusiasm...but I think he over estimates our probabilities from NS dominant systems. There is a pretty extreme cutoff between Philly and NY where those suddenly become a LOT more favorable. We get a much lower % of our snowfall south of Philly from NS waves than they do. We are really close to each other geographically so I can forgive him for that...but we need a LOT more luck for that setup to work out than NYC does. A SS dominant wave coming at us from the west of southwest with some confluence ahead of it...that is really our only high probability snowfall scenario and its why DC gets so much less snow than NY. They have a lot more ways to win than we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Yes nina is dead, but I’m curious if the models will change and shift h5 tracks further south and bring colder air further south if they use mjo 8 as initialized conditions rather than projecting into it from phase 7. If my question makes any sense? i feel like in times we were in a bad mjo phase models trended warmer as soon as it initialized in said phase so i wonder if the same applies here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 The combined snow probabilities through March 22 at BWI from todays 12z models 1": 68% 3": 43% 6": 19% but...for the first time all year the GEPS is the least snowy... which is ok because they have been the only ensembles that have ever been very snowy all winter and were always dead wrong...if we take a EPS/GEFS only combo the probabilities are 77%, 47%, 23%. Either way our best run of the season in terms of snowfall probabilities. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Storm 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: In terms of snow probabilities we just had by far our best run of the season at 12z. I will post in a few minutes when the last few days of the EPS updates...but for the first time all year the guidance is saying it SHOULD snow at least some in the next 15 days. asking for a friend but did the JMA show 2 feet of snow again for this weekend for us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Waves 1&2 are officially now within 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The combined snow probabilities through March 22 at BWI from todays 12z models 1": 68% 3": 43% 6": 19% but...for the first time all year the GEPS is the least snowy... which is ok because they have been the only ensembles that have ever been very snowy all winter and were always dead wrong...if we take a EPS/GEFS only combo the probabilities are 77%, 47%, 23%. Either way our best run of the season in terms of snowfall probabilities. Will would disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Storm 2 Roll it back 6 or 12 hours? Want to see where it is relative to IAD/DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 it looks like we are mjoing over to phase 8 as i speak... @Terpeast tomorow our snowfall mean will increase 241% 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Just now, Terpeast said: Roll it back 6 or 12 hours? Want to see where it is relative to IAD/DCA i can tell when a screen shot is stolen from the new england board smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Just now, Ji said: it looks like we are mjoing over to phase 8 as i speak... @Terpeast tomorow our snowfall mean will increase 241% I know you’re joking, but I’m reserving judgement until I see the next 2 days of model runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: In terms of snow probabilities we just had by far our best run of the season at 12z. I will post in a few minutes when the last few days of the EPS updates...but for the first time all year the guidance is saying it SHOULD snow at least some in the next 15 days. stop being positive...its getting kinda creepy. Why dont you start a "is it ever going to get cold again" thread 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ji said: asking for a friend but did the JMA show 2 feet of snow again for this weekend for us? It's still the best solution, coldest, furthest south track...but only 3-5" from the 12z run today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 yeah the ceiling for this weekend storm is 3-5". latest eps 90th percentile maps for the weekend have a regionwide 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 i can tell when a screen shot is stolen from the new england board smhWho gives a shit where it comes from . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Will would disagree Let’s see if the percentages hold/ improve as we go through this week. Then the confidence level will increase. We all get too excited over a couple of good runs. Cautiously optimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 18 minutes ago, jayyy said: Waves 1&2 are officially now within 7 days Yeah, but in terms of consistently showing significant snow it's currently, JMA vs the World. Not sure I like those odds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 20 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Roll it back 6 or 12 hours? Want to see where it is relative to IAD/DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, jayyy said: Who gives a shit where it comes from . If it's in the New England thread its probably good for them...which is bad for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 If it's in the New England thread its probably good for them...which is bad for us. Except the frame before is fine for us I’d say at this range. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's still the best solution, coldest, furthest south track...but only 3-5" from the 12z run today. Fantastic model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The combined snow probabilities through March 22 at BWI from todays 12z models 1": 68% 3": 43% 6": 19% but...for the first time all year the GEPS is the least snowy... which is ok because they have been the only ensembles that have ever been very snowy all winter and were always dead wrong...if we take a EPS/GEFS only combo the probabilities are 77%, 47%, 23%. Either way our best run of the season in terms of snowfall probabilities. That's great. Only one of the 51 EPS members of the 12 UT suite gives the DC area no snow over the next 15 days. Mean is the 2nd highest its been all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: That's great. Only one of the 51 EPS members of the 12 UT suite gives the DC area no snow over the next 15 days. Mean is the 2nd highest its been all winter. What happened the other time that was the highest mean of the entire winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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