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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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9 hours ago, snownut said:

My 8th full year in the west and the cascades to my west have always had snow. 

(glaciers are common here in the 3 sisters bowls 25 miles to my west) 

So many of the higher western mountains have snow year round.  Washington State stays pretty solid snow covered in many areas. The snow cover diminishes north to south with CA mountains snow melting out "pretty" fast. 

Deep snow packs are common in June. Several mountain roads don't get plowed open until late May and usually are closed again in early November. 

I skied here July 3rd in 2017 at Mt Bachelor with 3-5 feet still above 8,500 feet   

Only in August & September are my views mostly rocky looking.   

If you love snow, moderately cold winters its hard to match the higher mountains in the west.  Lots of "snowbirds" here that go to AZ or Palm Spring areas during the long winters. The locals joke that we have 9 months of winter and 3 months of summer.  Reality it depends on location. You can easily ski in the morning, golf, bike or even lounge by the pool on a sunny May day with temps in the 70's.  And that can happen 15 miles apart! 

the mountains that normally dont have snow all year round is what im saying 

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10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I hope we are all not disappointed by the 24th, cautiously optimistic for at least a covering of snow.  With a little luck we could get a 6 plus storm out of this pattern.

keep your expectations low and you can't be disappointed.

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:


Looks like a repeat. 850 temps marginal and no high. I guess 50 low is there

There is more cold than we have had with all the other garbage threats where we were praying for an absolutely perfect track...then we got one and it still was just rain lol.  We will need a dynamic system and a good track obviously given the time of year.  But...this euro run was showing that.  Look at the flow at day 10.  That upper low is going to track right across to our south.   That was the solution we need.  

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We are tracking 2 legit threats that are about 6 and 10 days away and you post a 5 day snowfall map.  Thanks.  

Just trying to keep it real….I know, lot of head fakes this year!  Actually busy day at work and it was a little hard to follow the thread.  Should say Wave one maps.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is more cold than we have had with all the other garbage threats where we were praying for an absolutely perfect track...then we got one and it still was just rain lol.  We will need a dynamic system and a good track obviously given the time of year.  But...this euro run was showing that.  Look at the flow at day 10.  That upper low is going to track right across to our south.   That was the solution we need.  

Exactly.  You can see the flow over the northeast is still confluent and snow is actually breaking out to our southwest.  

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5 minutes ago, JVscotch said:

Exactly.  You can see the flow over the northeast is still confluent and snow is actually breaking out to our southwest.  

I think that run was going to obliterate us had it continued another 24 hours.  Oh well...doesn't matter its going to shift around a lot in 10 days...but I still love that threat.  I've loved that time period based on a basic pattern evolution educated guess when it was still a month away...and now that its 10 days and coming into focus a bit...I still like it.  

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is really interesting for early next week. vigorous S/W diving through the Lakes, SS vort out in front and the mean is sniffing out a phase. PNA ridge is also ideal. caution is advised due to the lack of true arctic cold, but this is dynamic as all hell

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-8708800.thumb.png.9978b01ea19e7ebe970702269600292a.png

individual members have it but largely too warm but for our favored areas - better shot for you prob - though still nice and interesting in the medium range 

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is really interesting for early next week. vigorous S/W diving through the Lakes, SS vort out in front and the mean is sniffing out a phase. PNA ridge is also ideal. caution is advised due to the lack of true arctic cold, but this is dynamic as all hell

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-8708800.thumb.png.9978b01ea19e7ebe970702269600292a.png

how do we shift that ridge west?

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

individual members have it but largely too warm but for our favored areas - better shot for you prob - though still nice and interesting in the medium range 

hopefully it trends colder just like it did for the weekend event

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FWIW - if I understand percentiles correctly (which I may not) the EPS says a good chunk of people should at least see snow Saturday-Sunday, which is a horrifically low bar but we don't have much.

This is the 10th percentile map, so a bottom 10% situation when all the ens are considered. If people want I'd share other maps but want to avoid too much clutter

1678557600-sWlsYkJ7MVU.png

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19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is really interesting for early next week. vigorous S/W diving through the Lakes, SS vort out in front and the mean is sniffing out a phase. PNA ridge is also ideal. caution is advised due to the lack of true arctic cold, but this is dynamic as all hell

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-8708800.thumb.png.9978b01ea19e7ebe970702269600292a.png

This is advertised across the board. Active stj and diving njs. Timing differences keep models from keying on which date. Growing fairly confident something big pops next week that impacts both of our subforums in a positive way. 

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