Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase

this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-8687200.thumb.png.acf839966b9742ad34ec5bdb74ac7f79.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8687200.thumb.png.0d5e3beefd173ed16a2b7875cc6cb83f.png

for you i would be super excited but the phase looks too late for the dc area....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase

this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-8687200.thumb.png.acf839966b9742ad34ec5bdb74ac7f79.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8687200.thumb.png.0d5e3beefd173ed16a2b7875cc6cb83f.png

I’ve felt for a while based on the pattern and the time/space between features that we likely had 3 wave chances, each progressively more likely to produce here. Wave 1 as expected is pretty much lost now. But I still think we have a legit shot at waves 2-3. I’m ok with the gefs being a bit under amplified at this range for now. But I still think wave 3 might be the best shot to amplify far enough south. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Ji said:

for you i would be super excited but the phase looks too late for the dc area....

Agree is gonna be close and historically this setup fails more often.  The key for us is we need that h5 low to dig slightly further west.  I do think that systems gonna go ape once it phases but right now the majority of guidance tracks the h5 in too far northeast to phase in time for us.  The extreme blocking and shorter wavelengths right now give this a better shot than normal when I would pretty much laugh this off as a lost cause. 
 

The reason I’ve always liked wave 3 most is based on the pattern progression that wave is coming along as the northern stream is relaxing in the east. Also that wave is ejecting from the pac further south.  This means it’s a better chance to be a SS dominant wave which is a much better setup for us. But if the NS relaxes too much or it doesn’t amplify enough it won’t work. A weak wave March 20th is useless. But it’s still a better bet than needing these miller b phase jobs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, frd said:

Various indices look very nice from the 17th to the 20th.  

I originally identified the 15-17th. The pattern is still progressing the way I expected just a couple days slower.  It’s usually as the Atlantic is relaxing after a major amplification that we have our best opportunities from a SS wave taking advantage of the relaxing flow but with a still suppressed thermal boundary. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

multiple waves coming off the pac

Could one speculate that would mean multiple opportunities?? If you go simply by the indices it would appear the window of opportunity closes around the 23rd

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Could one speculate that would mean multiple opportunities?? If you go simply by the indices it would appear the window of opportunity closes around the 23rd

I could see there being multiple threats but it depends how long the flow remains suppressive enough and how many waves come within that window. I expect at least one wave after the miller b NS system next week. Could be more though. Gfs shows multiple threats in the period. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If I lived near PA line or out west with some decent elevation, Id be pretty optimistic about seeing snow and perhaps at least minor accumulation next week going into early following week, but us low landers, we know its an uphill battle with the boundary temperatures...I might see some flakes but I am not very optimistic about accumulation unless one of these can develop enough to have some pretty good dynamics and get the boundary to freezing or below.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

?

It's 32 or below at the surface for most of the storm, especially at the height. 850s never go above 0 well to the SE 

Verbatim the GFS upper-levels and time of day are just fine for snow.  It is 36/34 by the afternoon, so it is a drip-fest, but better than nothing.  The late March 2013 comparison is apt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Hearing flush hit makes me think 1-2 feet, not 3-5 inches. Bring on spring if we can't eclipse at least a 6 inch storm

when most of us have only seen a half inch, i think 3-5 will do just fine. 

  • Like 14
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

?

It's 32 or below at the surface for most of the storm, especially at the height. 850s never go above 0 well to the SE 

From what I see the freezing line is just NW of DC and straddles 95...Yeah I mean thatll work if the timing is right in being overnight verbatim...Im looking at 6 hour panels tho so maybe the 3 hour panel in between is a bit better, its 9 days out though so guess we shouldn't worry about temps right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...