Ji Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well for you i would be super excited but the phase looks too late for the dc area.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 It's already trended much closer to the coast with an earlier phase over the last 2 runs. We have plenty of time to get this to become a flush hit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 I get the Euro excitement and we got plenty of time to change, but as is for me(DC) it..meh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: That's a KU on the 6z GFS. Not trolling, I'm pushing all my chips into this storm already... five year anniversary of the 2018 storm, fits my second half of March timeframe, and we seem to be re-running 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well I’ve felt for a while based on the pattern and the time/space between features that we likely had 3 wave chances, each progressively more likely to produce here. Wave 1 as expected is pretty much lost now. But I still think we have a legit shot at waves 2-3. I’m ok with the gefs being a bit under amplified at this range for now. But I still think wave 3 might be the best shot to amplify far enough south. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 wave 3 is around the 20th right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: wave 3 is around the 20th right Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ji said: for you i would be super excited but the phase looks too late for the dc area.... not so sure about that. seeing a moist wave ride along a pre-established boundary with cold air in place can work for you guys 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 43 minutes ago, Ji said: for you i would be super excited but the phase looks too late for the dc area.... Agree is gonna be close and historically this setup fails more often. The key for us is we need that h5 low to dig slightly further west. I do think that systems gonna go ape once it phases but right now the majority of guidance tracks the h5 in too far northeast to phase in time for us. The extreme blocking and shorter wavelengths right now give this a better shot than normal when I would pretty much laugh this off as a lost cause. The reason I’ve always liked wave 3 most is based on the pattern progression that wave is coming along as the northern stream is relaxing in the east. Also that wave is ejecting from the pac further south. This means it’s a better chance to be a SS dominant wave which is a much better setup for us. But if the NS relaxes too much or it doesn’t amplify enough it won’t work. A weak wave March 20th is useless. But it’s still a better bet than needing these miller b phase jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes Various indices look very nice from the 17th to the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 I love how some people post snow maps that arbitrarily end right before long range guidance shows snow as if we won’t realize it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 18 minutes ago, frd said: Various indices look very nice from the 17th to the 20th. I originally identified the 15-17th. The pattern is still progressing the way I expected just a couple days slower. It’s usually as the Atlantic is relaxing after a major amplification that we have our best opportunities from a SS wave taking advantage of the relaxing flow but with a still suppressed thermal boundary. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Icon gets closer for the second wave, 0z had the low too east for anyone, 12z has a low off the outer banks that goes east then north, which screws us over but it also is too warm for anyone else on I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Gfs flush hit day 9 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 I’ve not given up on wave 2 but by far our best opportunity will be in the 7 days or so after that wave exits as the flow starts to relax with multiple waves coming off the pac. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 It’s a no green St Patrick’s Day! All blue baby. ETA: maybe just a little green… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: multiple waves coming off the pac Could one speculate that would mean multiple opportunities?? If you go simply by the indices it would appear the window of opportunity closes around the 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, frd said: Could one speculate that would mean multiple opportunities?? If you go simply by the indices it would appear the window of opportunity closes around the 23rd I could see there being multiple threats but it depends how long the flow remains suppressive enough and how many waves come within that window. I expect at least one wave after the miller b NS system next week. Could be more though. Gfs shows multiple threats in the period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 If I lived near PA line or out west with some decent elevation, Id be pretty optimistic about seeing snow and perhaps at least minor accumulation next week going into early following week, but us low landers, we know its an uphill battle with the boundary temperatures...I might see some flakes but I am not very optimistic about accumulation unless one of these can develop enough to have some pretty good dynamics and get the boundary to freezing or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Hope we cash in on one of these. We had a really cruddy winter in 2013 but managed to get this on March 25 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs flush hit day 9 For the whole area or just North and West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 13 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: For the whole area or just North and West? Generally whole area, its kind of a clipper ish storm..temps are obv marginal for lowlands though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 15 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: For the whole area or just North and West? Kuchera is 3-5 for DC/Baltimore and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Generally whole area, its kind of a clipper ish storm..temps are obv marginal for lowlands though ? It's 32 or below at the surface for most of the storm, especially at the height. 850s never go above 0 well to the SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Hearing flush hit makes me think 1-2 feet, not 3-5 inches. Bring on spring if we can't eclipse at least a 6 inch storm 5 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: ? It's 32 or below at the surface for most of the storm, especially at the height. 850s never go above 0 well to the SE Verbatim the GFS upper-levels and time of day are just fine for snow. It is 36/34 by the afternoon, so it is a drip-fest, but better than nothing. The late March 2013 comparison is apt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: ? It's 32 or below at the surface for most of the storm, especially at the height. 850s never go above 0 well to the SE This storm would mean 2AM Euro runs. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Hearing flush hit makes me think 1-2 feet, not 3-5 inches. Bring on spring if we can't eclipse at least a 6 inch storm when most of us have only seen a half inch, i think 3-5 will do just fine. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: ? It's 32 or below at the surface for most of the storm, especially at the height. 850s never go above 0 well to the SE From what I see the freezing line is just NW of DC and straddles 95...Yeah I mean thatll work if the timing is right in being overnight verbatim...Im looking at 6 hour panels tho so maybe the 3 hour panel in between is a bit better, its 9 days out though so guess we shouldn't worry about temps right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: not so sure about that. seeing a moist wave ride along a pre-established boundary with cold air in place can work for you guys We tend to score with that type of setup more times than not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now