Ruin Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, mappy said: Ok. It seems like you’re frustrated, but maybe I am interpreting wrong. Forecasting is hard. no just the fact they say one thing on my local but models that are followed by the country they dont look too at all and they model hug in house models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, mappy said: Can’t say I blame them. Someone mentioned this over the weekend, I think, that models have been “losing” nice east coast storms in the mid range, they end up cutters cause the ridge just won’t let up. It’s been tough for long range forecasts all winter. the cutters are really bad this year yes. but for the last few seasons for winter forecasts models are way off as well as temps esp when they say 2 weeks form now very cold and a few days before they push temps back up delay the cold for a week and it happens all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 40 minutes ago, Ji said: we are home. Look at the color of your backyard My backyard is Jinormous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Nothingburger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Still in phase 7. Not ideal for our snow chances. Hopefully we transition to 8 very shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Destroys California with another 15" of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 27 minutes ago, Amped said: Destroys California with another 15" of precip I heard today that the California Mountains have received 46 FEET of snow this winter so far. Another 2-3 feet expected this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 15 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: I heard today that the California Mountains have received 46 FEET of snow this winter so far. Another 2-3 feet expected this week. some mountains will have snow till next winter they were saying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Another run......another solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Interesting run on EURO for Wave 2 early next week. Very close to a big hit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 WB 0Z EPS compared to yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 The weekend storm threat is fading fast unless the coastal gets going sooner. At this point guidance generally depicts it deepening too far off the coast for our area. GEFS is closest, but as of now would be a nice event for NE PA and NE. The following wave for the 14th also has the look of late/offshore development on the ens means, but more time for that to adjust. Needless to say we are going to be working with marginal cold and heading into mid March, so at this point a favorable track and a stronger, more dynamic low will probably be required to realize significant frozen in the lowlands. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Ruin said: some mountains will have snow till next winter they were saying My 8th full year in the west and the cascades to my west have always had snow. (glaciers are common here in the 3 sisters bowls 25 miles to my west) So many of the higher western mountains have snow year round. Washington State stays pretty solid snow covered in many areas. The snow cover diminishes north to south with CA mountains snow melting out "pretty" fast. Deep snow packs are common in June. Several mountain roads don't get plowed open until late May and usually are closed again in early November. I skied here July 3rd in 2017 at Mt Bachelor with 3-5 feet still above 8,500 feet Only in August & September are my views mostly rocky looking. If you love snow, moderately cold winters its hard to match the higher mountains in the west. Lots of "snowbirds" here that go to AZ or Palm Spring areas during the long winters. The locals joke that we have 9 months of winter and 3 months of summer. Reality it depends on location. You can easily ski in the morning, golf, bike or even lounge by the pool on a sunny May day with temps in the 70's. And that can happen 15 miles apart! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 4 hours ago, Ruin said: some mountains will have snow till next winter they were saying They always do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Happy Spring. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 The weekend storm threat is fading fast unless the coastal gets going sooner. At this point guidance generally depicts it deepening too far off the coast for our area. GEFS is closest, but as of now would be a nice event for NE PA and NE. The following wave for the 14th also has the look of late/offshore development on the ens means, but more time for that to adjust. Needless to say we are going to be working with marginal cold and heading into mid March, so at this point a favorable track and a stronger, more dynamic low will probably be required to realize significant frozen in the lowlands.So the cold pattern advertised by the models all this time is a bust?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: So the cold pattern advertised by the models all this time is a bust? Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Below average in mid March is in the 40s for highs. Not sure the models were ever advertising much below. What's more important is the setup- need to have a feed of cold enough/dry air and some serious lift. Dynamic + evaporational cooling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Who would have thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 That's a KU on the 6z GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 That's a KU on the 6z GFS.It will end up being an FU 2 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 In all seriousness…one of these will likely hit us. I was hoping for earlier than later but it is what it is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 26 minutes ago, CAPE said: That's a KU on the 6z GFS. Nobody should look at the clown map. Looks at clown map. ETA: Someone gets fringed too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 WB 6Z GEFS….nice 24 hour trends in snow mean. Hopefully, it continues to increase as we go through this work week, no time left for another head fake. All chips in for the final furlong of winter! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 21 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS….nice 24 hour trends in snow mean. Hopefully, it continues to increase as we go through this work week, no time left for another head fake. All chips in for the final furlong of winter! Only positive changes are for the highlands. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, dallen7908 said: Perhaps they forgot to color in central MD? Certainly chase-able. The 6 UT ensembles are similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Wake me up when we are in the pink, white, or mint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: In all seriousness…one of these will likely hit us. I was hoping for earlier than later but it is what it is Who are you now? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the EPS is quite nice for early next week. we have a much more cohesive PNA ridge in an ideal location, a vigorous S/W over the Great Lakes digging S, and SS vorticity streaming in to increase the chance for a phase this does have the benefit of having more cold air to work with, and it seems more like a Miller A / hybrid rather than a pure redeveloper that would need perfect timing... seems to have a lot of moisture associated with it, as well You forecasting for Brooklyn or DC? Lol. The potential is there and the Euro surface is inspiring, but verbatim that looks like a setup where the SS runs out ahead and we get a Miller B late developer. Maybe Bmore could cash in if things pop quick enough...but that's a big maybe with that kind of setup. I don't recall closed lows in the GL or upper Midwest being a good thing for the DMV...we really need that northern stream to dig further. In fact, one thing that's been absent for a while is getting a clipper to dig far enough south to impact our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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