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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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I am amused regarding the frantic following of models. They are as corrupted as the humans who create. Self proclaimed experts make proclamations nearly every run only to to proven wrong 6 hours later, but nobody remembers.

We are running out of time except with elevation.

Next winter will please as snow droughts are not successive.

 

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17 minutes ago, stormy said:

I am amused regarding the frantic following of models. They are as corrupted as the humans who create. Self proclaimed experts make proclamations nearly every run only to to proven wrong 6 hours later, but nobody remembers.

We are running out of time except with elevation.

Next winter will please as snow droughts are not successive.

 

But why do they consistently underperform in a “negative snow” direction? We continue to see possible SECS turn into cutters on the models within 5-7 days out or just some rain showers. But when was the last time a modeled cutter 5-7 days ended up being a SECS “in real life”?


Even in the best of years, the best snowstorms are clearly seen pretty early on the models. Not going from cutter to snowstorm. 

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3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

But why do they consistently underperform in a “negative snow” direction? We continue to see possible SECS turn into cutters on the models within 5-7 days out or just some rain showers. But when was the last time a modeled cutter 5-7 days ended up being a SECS “in real life”?


Even in the best of years, the best snowstorms are clearly seen pretty early on the models. Not going from cutter to snowstorm. 

Because our snow is bounded by 0 and we’re pretty close to the southern edge of where it snows in a grand sense even in a good winter.  There are plenty of places further north where guidance underestimates snow at times on the whole. But some is perception bias. We remember the runs that snow and forget the many many many that don’t. Take right now…the vast majority is showing no snow.  But the minority that shows snow is giving the perception “guidance is predicting snow” but at no time has our probability of snow across guidance reached 50% all winter. When taken in totality guidance hasn’t once predicted snow here all winter. 

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14 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

But why do they consistently underperform in a “negative snow” direction? We continue to see possible SECS turn into cutters on the models within 5-7 days out or just some rain showers. But when was the last time a modeled cutter 5-7 days ended up being a SECS “in real life”?


Even in the best of years, the best snowstorms are clearly seen pretty early on the models. Not going from cutter to snowstorm. 

I do not claim to be an expert, but this is the third La Nina year. That is very unusual. I believe the models are trying to assimilate a pattern without La Nina and the resultant persistent SER.

This would be a tremendous winter without La Nina.

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44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Because our snow is bounded by 0 and we’re pretty close to the southern edge of where it snows in a grand sense even in a good winter.  There are plenty of places further north where guidance underestimates snow at times on the whole. But some is perception bias. We remember the runs that snow and forget the many many many that don’t. Take right now…the vast majority is showing no snow.  But the minority that shows snow is giving the perception “guidance is predicting snow” but at no time has our probability of snow across guidance reached 50% all winter. When taken in totality guidance hasn’t once predicted snow here all winter. 

Understood-Would you agree that guidance 8-10 days out has shown quite a bit of snow a few times this winter for RVA to DC only to have it change inside of 7 days with little or no snow? But rarely do you see models show cutters 8-10 days out and then this region ends up having a SECS with snow. 

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28 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That gfs bomb ots is fine where it is at range. I don’t believe it will go that far ots because record warmth waters will keep the baroclinic boundary closer to the coast. But the way it bombs? I believe it. 

the gfs and the CMC were both showing their own versions of this bomb 3-4 days ago when we had that fun night...the GFS was focused on the 15th...while CMC was focused on the weekend

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27 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Understood-Would you agree that guidance 8-10 days out has shown quite a bit of snow a few times this winter for RVA to DC only to have it change inside of 7 days with little or no snow? But rarely do you see models show cutters 8-10 days out and then this region ends up having a SECS with snow. 

There were several times where one or two model runs showed a snowstorm day 8-10.  But if you just count the Gfs/euro/ggem there are 8 op runs a day. If 1-2 show a snowstorm that actually means most guidance didn’t and taken as a whole was saying it wouldn’t snow. Never not once was the majority of guidance over a 24-48 hour period showing a snowstorm. 

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2 hours ago, Ruin said:

my local news weather guys are not buying the cold air below normal at all they have me at average or slightly above now lol.

To be fair, climate prediction center was only predicting a 30-50% chance of below normal temps for next week

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18 minutes ago, mappy said:

To be fair, climate prediction center was only predicting a 30-50% chance of below normal temps for next week

thats what im saying no one knows what the fuck is going on. they have mid 40s or higher for the next 10 days and no sign of any snow maybe showers of rain on the day we are looking at the storm

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7 minutes ago, Ruin said:

thats what im saying no one knows what the fuck is going on. they have mid 40s or higher for the next 10 days and no sign of any snow maybe showers of rain on the day we are looking at the storm

Ok. It seems like you’re frustrated, but maybe I am interpreting wrong. Forecasting is hard.

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Just now, mappy said:

Ok. It seems like you’re frustrated, but maybe I am interpreting wrong. Forecasting is hard.

Even the pros at LWX aren’t touching this at all. 

Mt Holly doesn’t think we’ll (the entire MA) get much snow out of this from the first storm. 

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Just now, Terpeast said:

Even the pros at LWX aren’t touching this at all. 

Mt Holly doesn’t think we’ll (the entire MA) get much snow out of this from the first storm. 

Can’t say I blame them. Someone mentioned this over the weekend, I think, that models have been “losing” nice east coast storms in the mid range, they end up cutters cause the ridge just won’t let up. It’s been tough for long range forecasts all winter. 

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