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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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Most guidance right now is living in my fail zone where wave 1 is strong enough to interfere with wave 2 but not good enough to help us. 
 

The trend is the other way right now but I think rooting against wave 1 amplifying is the way to go. Wave 2 has a much better chance simply because there would be less ridging in front of it. Wave 1 simply simply needs so much to go perfect to overcome that I don’t know how likely it is. Never thought it was that likely.  But I’ll admit it’s a lot closer then I thought it would be around the day 5 threshold. 

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28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

We know how this is likely to play out…wave 1 goes just to our north but is intense enough to squash wave 2.

 

Unfortunately my fail scenarios are usually the best bet. It’s amazing…when a threat window appears I think “now how could this all fall apart” and 90% of the time things trend exactly to that! 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Most guidance right now is living in my fail zone where wave 1 is strong enough to interfere with wave 2 but not good enough to help us. 
 

The trend is the other way right now but I think rooting against wave 1 amplifying is the way to go. Wave 2 has a much better chance simply because there would be less ridging in front of it. Wave 1 simply simply needs so much to go perfect to overcome that I don’t know how likely it is. Never thought it was that likely.  But I’ll admit it’s a lot closer then I thought it would be around the day 5 threshold. 

I like wave 2 on the GFS this run. It's where we want it at this range.

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I guess if we want to be optimists there could be an ever so slim zone where it’s possible to get a hit from both.  I think that would require wave 2 to slow down which was a trend on the Gfs. We would need more separation between the waves to pull off a double because wave 1 will need to be pretty darn amped and tucked for us to get any snow. 
 

 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess if we want to be optimists there could be an ever so slim zone where it’s possible to get a hit from both.  I think that would require wave 2 to slow down which was a trend on the Gfs. We would need more separation between the waves to pull off a double because wave 1 will need to be pretty darn amped and tucked for us to get any snow. 
 

 

Wave 1 has the issue we've been dealing with all season, and there's no indication this is an exception..

...lack of cold (enough) air.

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