stormtracker Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 Just now, Ji said: well no surprise--the ultimate fail scenario worked wave 1 is too far north but it strong enough and wont move out in time to kill wave 2. no snow from either This isn't true so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 Wave 2 isn't crushed at all, but may not turn negative in time to get us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 Neutral tilt trof with axis in central KY. I don't think it'll go negative in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 I was right. Healthy wave, just too far east for what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Flow is kinda flat after that 1st wave, but still looks workable if that trailing northern stream wave can dig further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 Anyway, at least we have some time for changes. PSU's wave is there for now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Neutral tilt trof with axis in central KY. I don't think it'll go negative in timeYea, the gom looks closed for business on this run, but it’s early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Most guidance right now is living in my fail zone where wave 1 is strong enough to interfere with wave 2 but not good enough to help us. The trend is the other way right now but I think rooting against wave 1 amplifying is the way to go. Wave 2 has a much better chance simply because there would be less ridging in front of it. Wave 1 simply simply needs so much to go perfect to overcome that I don’t know how likely it is. Never thought it was that likely. But I’ll admit it’s a lot closer then I thought it would be around the day 5 threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 GEFS changes reflect OP for wave 1. stronger h5 low, more ridging out West, and a slightly stronger 50/50 low. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 28 minutes ago, Weather Will said: We know how this is likely to play out…wave 1 goes just to our north but is intense enough to squash wave 2. Unfortunately my fail scenarios are usually the best bet. It’s amazing…when a threat window appears I think “now how could this all fall apart” and 90% of the time things trend exactly to that! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Most guidance right now is living in my fail zone where wave 1 is strong enough to interfere with wave 2 but not good enough to help us. The trend is the other way right now but I think rooting against wave 1 amplifying is the way to go. Wave 2 has a much better chance simply because there would be less ridging in front of it. Wave 1 simply simply needs so much to go perfect to overcome that I don’t know how likely it is. Never thought it was that likely. But I’ll admit it’s a lot closer then I thought it would be around the day 5 threshold. I like wave 2 on the GFS this run. It's where we want it at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Amped said: I like wave 2 on the GFS this run. It's where we want it at this range. To state the obvious, you need that trough that is over us at 204 to have already gone negative by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 I guess if we want to be optimists there could be an ever so slim zone where it’s possible to get a hit from both. I think that would require wave 2 to slow down which was a trend on the Gfs. We would need more separation between the waves to pull off a double because wave 1 will need to be pretty darn amped and tucked for us to get any snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Said the person who is here too! 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I guess if we want to be optimists there could be an ever so slim zone where it’s possible to get a hit from both. I think that would require wave 2 to slow down which was a trend on the Gfs. We would need more separation between the waves to pull off a double because wave 1 will need to be pretty darn amped and tucked for us to get any snow. Wave 1 has the issue we've been dealing with all season, and there's no indication this is an exception.. ...lack of cold (enough) air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Take the GEFS longitude and intensity and the GEPS latitude and we have a winner for wave 1. (WB 12Z). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Take the GEFS longitude and intensity and the GEPS latitude and we have a winner for wave 1. (WB 12Z). Is that how that works? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Wave 1 for Friday on the 12Z GFS is a 3-5” overrunning event for us western VA folks in Augusta County. Would quadruple mby snow total for the winter! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 33 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS changes reflect OP for wave 1. stronger h5 low, more ridging out West, and a slightly stronger 50/50 low. Seems like a pretty significant run to run change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Wave 1 for Friday on the 12Z GFS is a 3-5” overrunning event for us western VA folks in Augusta County. Would quadruple mby snow total for the winter! Lol I’d say you can bank that GFS money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Is that how that works? "Model blend" I've always hated that term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: "Model blend" I've always hated that term. How about, "an ensemble of ensembles"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 We are the twitter of winter weather here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Yea, the gom looks closed for business on this run, but it’s early in the game.It’s mid March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Need that Jaws music at 384 on the GFS. Look at that setup. This might be the one boys. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Hr 78 euro slightly improved. H5 seems slightly south. But less ridging. Bit more confluence to our northeast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ji said: It’s mid March I miss when we used to do Morch tbh. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Hr 78 euro slightly improved. H5 seems slightly south. But less ridging. But more confluence to our northeast. It's like one step forward and one back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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