Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

But it looks like almost a carbon copy of the 6z GFS at 90?

It's subtle but compare the trajectory of the upper level feature coming out of CO/WY on the NAM and the GFS.   

GFS

GFS.thumb.gif.acd5a22e07c10c33f3d564842c5324c4.gif

NAM

NAM.thumb.gif.c2ec1b37fd3a2821e5d9143580d04390.gif

NAM is digging a bit and the GFS is lifting.  The key to our success is the track of that feature...we need that to take a more amplified but further south track.  Those are the solutions that lead to snow.  

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Just last year, I measured a couple of inches on April 18, when 2-6” fell across the eastern panhandle of WV and western MD.

Since moving to WV in 2006, I’ve received:  

15” on March 21, 2018

9.4” on March 19-20, 2015

4.1” on March 25, 2013

6.0 on March 17, 2007

 

Yes. March is a snow month for us. It is harder for the coastal plain. But we can still score. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Aren't yall excited that starting Sunday, we'll be up until 2:30 am instead of 1:30 am watching the Euro? 

There's nothing like a 12z 11:30 am GFS run.

Waiting an extra hour for the Euro causes an additional 1,000 March heart attacks each year. It's devastating for farmers trying to feed the pigs and look at the 06z GFS. 

  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@stormtracker basically this illustrates what we need....

Snow_no.thumb.png.1eec9c9b23fcaf70a46baf994820be13.png

This is 24 hours after those plots we were comparing...and its game over on the GFS because of where the upper low is.  From here its going to track southeast because of the block but its too far north...the suppression it would take to even get that under us from there would have to squash the wave anyways.  That wont work.  The runs that produce a chance at snow here have the upper feature located near 2 on that map...with a SE track from there.  NAM appeared closer to that track than 1 with that feature.  I really think that is the key to this.  

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We know how this is likely to play out…wave 1 goes just to our north but is intense enough to squash wave 2.

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think wave 2 is our best bet. a strong wave 1 might get us an inch or two and clobber New England but nobody wants a 1-2 inch storm in march. lets see what CMC does with wave 2

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...