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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

But it looks like almost a carbon copy of the 6z GFS at 90?

It's subtle but compare the trajectory of the upper level feature coming out of CO/WY on the NAM and the GFS.   

GFS

GFS.thumb.gif.acd5a22e07c10c33f3d564842c5324c4.gif

NAM

NAM.thumb.gif.c2ec1b37fd3a2821e5d9143580d04390.gif

NAM is digging a bit and the GFS is lifting.  The key to our success is the track of that feature...we need that to take a more amplified but further south track.  Those are the solutions that lead to snow.  

 

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23 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Just last year, I measured a couple of inches on April 18, when 2-6” fell across the eastern panhandle of WV and western MD.

Since moving to WV in 2006, I’ve received:  

15” on March 21, 2018

9.4” on March 19-20, 2015

4.1” on March 25, 2013

6.0 on March 17, 2007

 

Yes. March is a snow month for us. It is harder for the coastal plain. But we can still score. 

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Aren't yall excited that starting Sunday, we'll be up until 2:30 am instead of 1:30 am watching the Euro? 

There's nothing like a 12z 11:30 am GFS run.

Waiting an extra hour for the Euro causes an additional 1,000 March heart attacks each year. It's devastating for farmers trying to feed the pigs and look at the 06z GFS. 

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@stormtracker basically this illustrates what we need....

Snow_no.thumb.png.1eec9c9b23fcaf70a46baf994820be13.png

This is 24 hours after those plots we were comparing...and its game over on the GFS because of where the upper low is.  From here its going to track southeast because of the block but its too far north...the suppression it would take to even get that under us from there would have to squash the wave anyways.  That wont work.  The runs that produce a chance at snow here have the upper feature located near 2 on that map...with a SE track from there.  NAM appeared closer to that track than 1 with that feature.  I really think that is the key to this.  

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We know how this is likely to play out…wave 1 goes just to our north but is intense enough to squash wave 2.

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think wave 2 is our best bet. a strong wave 1 might get us an inch or two and clobber New England but nobody wants a 1-2 inch storm in march. lets see what CMC does with wave 2

 

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