brooklynwx99 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Why post the control? The mean is a nice improvement. the key here is getting the ULL over the NW US to buckle the Pacific flow. this EPS run does a much better job at this, allowing for ridging to push into the Plains and help amplify everything downstream 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 Aren't yall excited that starting Sunday, we'll be up until 2:30 am instead of 1:30 am watching the Euro? There's nothing like a 12z 11:30 am GFS run. 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Aren't yall excited that starting Sunday, we'll be up until 2:30 am instead of 1:30 am watching the Euro? There's nothing like a 12z 11:30 am GFS run. Well I was hoping to be up watching the snow fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Why post the control? The mean is a nice improvement. Control is on acid most times. Microdot city. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: Why post the control? The mean is a nice improvement. I thought that the control mimics the global at this range. I guess we will find out this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: Why post the control? The mean is a nice improvement. Nearing this date and beyond is a nice + PNA spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 hours ago, frd said: It can snow in March bro Yes it can, there was even a significant early April snow that affected coastal NJ and DE a long time ago, but it takes a truly cold airmass and those are becoming rare even in mid winter lately. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes it can, there was even a significant early April snow that affected coastal NJ and DE a long time ago, but it takes a truly cold airmass and those are becoming rare even in mid winter lately. We had a May "threat" last til' NAM range back in 2020. Can dig up the old images but we got teased really, really late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: We had a May "threat" last til' NAM range back in 2020. Can dig up the old images but we got teased really, really late. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Yep, that was it. There was also an EPS Control run that gave us an areawide 6-12" on May 11. Must've been ridiculously anomalously cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: We had a May "threat" last til' NAM range back in 2020. Can dig up the old images but we got teased really, really late. I remember a major snow threat a couple years ago (2018 maybe?) that had us in the bullseye for April something, ended up with 1-3 for the southwestern areas. I only remember it because I was in middle of nowhere PA and got to go sledding with my cousin on like 2 inches of snow. Huge flakes came down when it did snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: A 78 hour NAM map in May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yep, that was it. There was also an EPS Control run that gave us an areawide 6-12" on May 11. Must've been ridiculously anomalously cold. I remember having to cover my garden transplants for a few nights around then. We definitely got into the low- to mid-30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Must've been ridiculously anomalously cold. The first 2 weeks of that month were the 8th coldest on record at the DC site. Far and away the coldest in the 2000s, and coldest since at least the 1940s. The following 2 weeks chipped away at that cold start though, resulting in May 2020 as a whole being the 42nd coldest at DCA (63.8F). May 2003 was the coldest such month in recent memory, averaging 61.7F and being the 12th coldest on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 JB is calling this one of the coldest Marchs of all time. He couldnt resist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Yeah May 2020 was nuts - if you recall there was a day where we barely got into the low 50s in the city (and colder outside) with sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 40 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I thought that the control mimics the global at this range. I guess we will find out this afternoon. Inside about 120 hours they tend to be very close which makes sense since the control is basically a lower resolution version. However, this has morphed into an inverted trough type setup and those are incredibly delicate and could produce more spread between the two. But I think there was value in posting the control. As much value as any single data point anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: Yeah May 2020 was nuts - if you recall there was a day where we barely got into the low 50s in the city (and colder outside) with sunny skies. Most of our cold snaps nowadays seem to stem from a string of rainy and cloudy days that disproportionately skew high temps lower, so something like that is pretty impressive. If only that cold was there during the Dec-Feb timeframe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ji said: JB is calling this one of the coldest Marchs of all time. He couldnt resist Remember when some storm he had been hyping ended up just a weak wave and he said “it’s an inch but it could be the worst inch ever”. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Wave 3 isn’t so much impacted by this…but my fear with waves 1-2 are they split the energy. There is an in between spot where wave 1 is just amplified enough to squash wave 2 but still not enough to help us. I’m torn in what to root for. Doesn’t matter since the fact there isn’t a 12 foot snowpack on my lawn proves what I root for has no impact on the outcome. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 I kinda liked the NAM at 84. Nuff said bout dat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Just last year, I measured a couple of inches on April 18, when 2-6” fell across the eastern panhandle of WV and western MD. Since moving to WV in 2006, I’ve received: 15” on March 21, 2018 9.4” on March 19-20, 2015 4.1” on March 25, 2013 6.0 on March 17, 2007 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 There was April snow in 2014 as well. At least up this way. I was annoyed because my tulips had bloomed already lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I kinda liked the NAM at 84. Nuff said bout dat. But it looks like almost a carbon copy of the 6z GFS at 90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Icon digs more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 18 minutes ago, Ji said: JB is calling this one of the coldest Marchs of all time. He couldnt resist I’m always surprised he has any time to talk about weather much these days. Usually he is going on a scooby doo chase with the My Pillow guy on twitter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Something I've noticed looking at individual ensemble members and ops and what produces snow or at least a close call v runs that don't.... we actually want a more amplified wave BUT it has to be in conjunction with a more suppressive flow such that the wave is more amplified but is digging over the midwest not lifting. That is why I said I liked the NAM. Its a more amped wave but its digging. Yes the weaker primary waves won't wreck the thermals as much but the flow along the east coast is suppressive and the weaker solutions also fail to produce a secondary in time. The wave washes out and by the time it redevelops its way OTS. We need the perfect combo of a stronger wave with a further south track of the upper feature such that a secondary forms quickly and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, mappy said: There was April snow in 2014 as well. At least up this way. I was annoyed because my tulips had bloomed already lol Pretty sure we had snow fall from the sky in 2015 and 2016 too, in April. Didn't amount to anything, but at least it fell. Don't mind April snows. The picturesqueness is greater than in March, though we get more then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Its a Breeze said: Pretty sure we had snow fall from the sky in 2015 and 2016 too, in April. Didn't amount to anything, but at least it fell. Don't mind April snows. The picturesqueness is greater than in March, though we get more then... Probably. I honestly stop tracking snow come March 1st 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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