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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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Lol as I mentioned earlier tonight all the models now are focused on the 2nd wave...which is good because it's only a 1 to 2 day difference. It's also deeper into the pattern change rather than trying to get a storm as soon as the pattern changes

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

At this point the weekend storm does not look like it will come together in such a way that the combo of enough cold air and precip will coincide. Far north/west areas obviously have the best shot at some snow.

Do you still have hope for us in the lowlands near the 15th to the 20th? Personally I enjoyed being outside on Saturday doing some landscaping. 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

Do you still have hope for us in the lowlands near the 15th to the 20th? Personally I enjoyed being outside on Saturday doing some landscaping. 

'Colder' air availability will be improved and a better chance of a wave tracking underneath. I like the idea of a wave after the weekend thing, for early next week. 

eta- something like this. At this point there is a signal across guidance, but it would probably be on the weaker side /tend to develop more offshore. Thermals are better behind whatever happens this weekend.

1678860000-g5dZZat4BtY.png

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35 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Was that sarcasm? Lol

There is about as strong a signal as can be at those leads for a storm around the 20th and given the pattern progression that one might be our best chance regardless of the date. Yes I know our climo is deteriorating daily. 

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47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is about as strong a signal as can be at those leads for a storm around the 20th and given the pattern progression that one might be our best chance regardless of the date. Yes I know our climo is deteriorating daily. 

in terms of climo, just from a statistical standpoint, the odds of seeing anything more than plowable on the week of the 20-27th are about the same as the 13-20th. the dynamic outcomes of the seasonal transition probably outweigh the sun angle stuff. it's really the week of the 27th into April when things fall off a cliff

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The thing around the 20th can definitely still work here. It's more that we keep doing what we've done all year, which is keep pushing all the threats back out past that 7+ day window. This time seems different, or maybe I'm just an idiot and Lucy is pulling the football again. This is the first time I really believed in anything since December, but my patience is being tested for sure. Seems like within the next week or so, we will know whether we have something or we can just move on.

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30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

in terms of climo, just from a statistical standpoint, the odds of seeing anything more than plowable on the week of the 20-27th are about the same as the 13-20th. the dynamic outcomes of the seasonal transition probably outweigh the sun angle stuff. it's really the week of the 27th into April when things fall off a cliff

Rule of thumb based on Baltimore statistics over the last 130 years.  Chances of a substantial event drop off by a factor of two between March 1 - 10th and March 11th - 20th and another factor of two between March 10-20 and March 21 -April 1.  Chances essentially zero after that. 

Certainly the EPS mean snowfall totals for the next few weeks are as good as we've seen this "winter". 

CAPE's post about how good day 12-14 looks made me nostalgic for earlier this year when the events were only 10 days away. 

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The coastal low deepens a bit more on the 6z EPS, and a little colder with some precip still ongoing. Temps still very marginal outside of the usual places. If the low strengthens a bit closer to the coast, this scenario might be a bit more interesting. 

1678579200-Eyb8dyCcvH8.png

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