MDstorm Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Only 8 days away. And it appears to have the PSU/HoCo-MoCo death band. It has to be correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Lol as I mentioned earlier tonight all the models now are focused on the 2nd wave...which is good because it's only a 1 to 2 day difference. It's also deeper into the pattern change rather than trying to get a storm as soon as the pattern changesSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Euro wave 2 it is… Even with off shore low to the SE still rain far inland. Nothing here . Pathetic winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: This works quite well. It also fits in the timeframe that you and Chuck said would be prime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 0z EPS wave one The following wave is mostly south and off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Pretty strong signal for the 18-20th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Euro wave 2 it is… I’m sure that’s the one that will work lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 At this point the weekend storm does not look like it will come together in such a way that the combo of enough cold air and precip will coincide. Far north/west areas obviously have the best shot at some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: At this point the weekend storm does not look like it will come together in such a way that the combo of enough cold air and precip will coincide. Far north/west areas obviously have the best shot at some snow. Do you still have hope for us in the lowlands near the 15th to the 20th? Personally I enjoyed being outside on Saturday doing some landscaping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 48 minutes ago, CAPE said: Pretty strong signal for the 18-20th. Was that sarcasm? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 hours ago, frd said: Even with off shore low to the SE still rain far inland. Nothing here . Pathetic winter. it's march bro what do u expect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: it's march bro what do u expect It can snow in March bro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 hour ago, frd said: Do you still have hope for us in the lowlands near the 15th to the 20th? Personally I enjoyed being outside on Saturday doing some landscaping. 'Colder' air availability will be improved and a better chance of a wave tracking underneath. I like the idea of a wave after the weekend thing, for early next week. eta- something like this. At this point there is a signal across guidance, but it would probably be on the weaker side /tend to develop more offshore. Thermals are better behind whatever happens this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 35 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Was that sarcasm? Lol There is about as strong a signal as can be at those leads for a storm around the 20th and given the pattern progression that one might be our best chance regardless of the date. Yes I know our climo is deteriorating daily. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 27 minutes ago, frd said: It can snow in March bro ur not gonna get a huge snow event with a leaving airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: 0z EPS wave one The following wave is mostly south and off the coast. We won't fail.....we don't fail....we can't fail. Say it with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 I don’t even know what we are tracking anymore. Spring? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I don’t even know what we are tracking anymore. Spring? Northerly winds 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 In general, my hope was that by early this week we would have locked in on a specific threat supported by more than one model. That has not happened, maybe by this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is about as strong a signal as can be at those leads for a storm around the 20th and given the pattern progression that one might be our best chance regardless of the date. Yes I know our climo is deteriorating daily. in terms of climo, just from a statistical standpoint, the odds of seeing anything more than plowable on the week of the 20-27th are about the same as the 13-20th. the dynamic outcomes of the seasonal transition probably outweigh the sun angle stuff. it's really the week of the 27th into April when things fall off a cliff 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Lol yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 The thing around the 20th can definitely still work here. It's more that we keep doing what we've done all year, which is keep pushing all the threats back out past that 7+ day window. This time seems different, or maybe I'm just an idiot and Lucy is pulling the football again. This is the first time I really believed in anything since December, but my patience is being tested for sure. Seems like within the next week or so, we will know whether we have something or we can just move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: in terms of climo, just from a statistical standpoint, the odds of seeing anything more than plowable on the week of the 20-27th are about the same as the 13-20th. the dynamic outcomes of the seasonal transition probably outweigh the sun angle stuff. it's really the week of the 27th into April when things fall off a cliff Rule of thumb based on Baltimore statistics over the last 130 years. Chances of a substantial event drop off by a factor of two between March 1 - 10th and March 11th - 20th and another factor of two between March 10-20 and March 21 -April 1. Chances essentially zero after that. Certainly the EPS mean snowfall totals for the next few weeks are as good as we've seen this "winter". CAPE's post about how good day 12-14 looks made me nostalgic for earlier this year when the events were only 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 WB 6Z Euro control for this weekend…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Pretty strong signal for the 18-20th. There it is... Reminder that I have thread rights during this time frame, called it months ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Euro wave 2 it is… That's definitely gonna be there on the 12z run. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 The coastal low deepens a bit more on the 6z EPS, and a little colder with some precip still ongoing. Temps still very marginal outside of the usual places. If the low strengthens a bit closer to the coast, this scenario might be a bit more interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 38 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z Euro control for this weekend…. Why post the control? The mean is a nice improvement. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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