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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Out to 120.. looks like we want to build a CAD wedge to plenty of blocking to the north.. like I said, differences between NAM and GFS in the Pacific is that there's still plenty of time to trend. 

gfs_namer_120_850_temp_ht.gif

gfs_namer_120_500_vort_ht.gif

Nice.  But it’s not cold enough Chuck.  A wedge is great but if you are wedging cool maritime 546 air it’s just colder rain.  It’s really just new ways to tell the same story.  

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Nice.  But it’s not cold enough Chuck.  A wedge is great but if you are wedging cool maritime 546 air it’s just colder rain.  It’s really just new ways to tell the same story.  

It’s cold enough for a front end thump or mix east of the mountains, verbatim. 

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Glossing over the 12z suite, that follow up wave looks like the one to pay attention to. For the late week system, it looks like snow showers as the upper level low swings would be a win for that one…which is kind of how things typically work in our favor during a pattern change (ie, cold front swings through with a test taste and then a follow up wave).

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Something new that came up on todays model runs is a second wave following closely on the first one’s heels, not the one that comes almost a week later. Ensembles signal is faint but its there. Could get interesting if we get a follow up wave timed well with cold air after the first. 

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20 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Something new that came up on todays model runs is a second wave following closely on the first one’s heels, not the one that comes almost a week later. Ensembles signal is faint but its there. Could get interesting if we get a follow up wave timed well with cold air after the first. 

Yeah esp the CMC ens. I made a post about it.

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I haven’t read all day.

Can anybody tell me what’s going on without using the words shit, suck or fuck? If so I’ll feel good about where we stand.

Euro ensembles at 12z look really good. 18z gfs was a hot mess for 95

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10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I haven’t read all day.

Can anybody tell me what’s going on without using the words shit, suck or fuck? If so I’ll feel good about where we stand.

I scrolled through 18z op GFS and found one frame at hr 330 that had digital blue at your location.  One.  So avoid looking at it even while shitting in the sitter

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Verbatim HH GEFS is pretty decent for Mount PSU northward/westward.

1678557600-sSaxCggyHLY.png

Is that a low or a weak high?  I'm kidding, but I think a Miller B needs to get serious quickly off the coast before we can really ever benefit, at least in this relatively wonky setup.  Funny thing is that it's still only Sunday and this system is 5+ days out...so who knows what could happen.

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23 minutes ago, mappy said:

Euro ensembles at 12z look really good. 18z gfs was a hot mess for 95

It looked better (the Euro ensembles), but unless I'm interpreting the nuances wrong, we could use a 50 mile south shift of that ULL:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023030512&fh=150

I guess we'll see if 12z was a trend or a wobble.  Given that track, I'm kinda surprised the precip shield is as healthy as it is.

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2 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

So if I'm looking for snow the first week of April, should I opt for Vermont or Montreal/ Quebec area? 

Montreal and Quebec City are on the river and get pretty warm by April. Snowpack is likely to be gone. Same with the valleys in Vermont. The spine of the Green Mountains in VT will very likely still have snow. Places like Killington and Stowe. But even there is can get very warm at the base once into April. If you want to be sure to see snow go to NW Maine. Places around Sugarloaf will always have snow otg into early April and hold snowpack to May some years. 

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It looked better (the Euro ensembles), but unless I'm interpreting the nuances wrong, we could use a 50 mile south shift of that ULL:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023030512&fh=150

I guess we'll see if 12z was a trend or a wobble.  Given that track, I'm kinda surprised the precip shield is as healthy as it is.

Better/good is all relative. It still shows signs of hope for those who want snow. :)

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1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Something new that came up on todays model runs is a second wave following closely on the first one’s heels, not the one that comes almost a week later. Ensembles signal is faint but its there. Could get interesting if we get a follow up wave timed well with cold air after the first. 

18z gefs really seeing it now too!  As wave one trends less amplified (at least in the Midwest) it’s leaving breathing room for a wave that was getting squashed out of existence before on guidance. 

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