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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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So with late week falling off the table rapidly that takes us to March 12.  The 12Z WB GEPS and GEFS does look good for the following week, but the GEFS seems to lose the cold anomalies at the end of that period around the 21st so that may be it.  GEPS looks like cold will hold beyond the third week of the month.

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Op euro was a disaster. SER goes nuts again in the long range. So far it’s one fluke op run. Let’s hope ensembles don’t trend that was.  12z gefs and geps didn’t.  0z eps wasn’t.  
 

If a strong phase 8/1 mjo can’t eradicate the SER we’re in serious trouble!!!

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25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Op euro was a disaster. SER goes nuts again in the long range. So far it’s one fluke op run. Let’s hope ensembles don’t trend that was.  12z gefs and geps didn’t.  0z eps wasn’t.  
 

If a strong phase 8/1 mjo can’t eradicate the SER we’re in serious trouble!!!

Not every ridge is a SER. I don't see a SER in the LR on the EURO op.

Once again the fundamental problem(on that run) is a trough digging out west. That means there will be a ridge to the east.

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not every ridge is a SER. I don't see a SER in the LR on the EURO op.

Once again the fundamental problem is a trough digging out west. That means there will be a ridge to the east.

But troughs will always enter the west.  Look at our loading pattern  3-5 days before a snow. Often there is a trough out west. Rarely go we snow from a wave diving SE from Canada.  A handful of times I’ve been in UT or CO and skiid in snow then flew home in time to get snowed on again from the same wave.
 

problem is waves have to progress east not amplify and track NE.  In this longwave configuration it makes sense we have trouble. 
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look at the wave spacing in the pac.  It supports an eastern ridge.  But look at day 10. 
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as the impact of the mjo forces pac waves that have died west of the Aleutians to progress instead of kicking that wave out of the NW instead it’s logjammed the pac into a mess.   The pac doesn’t support a trough amplifying in the west and pumping an eastern ridge.  The pac is being convoluted into an ungodly mess because fir whatever reason the trough won’t kick out. It’s as if there was a boulder dumped into the River over the CONUS forcing the flow to buckle around it backing up everything behind it!   
 

Now you are right that about 75% of the time the last 7 years the pac longwave pattern has been bad. My point is that doesn’t 100% account for our futility.  We’ve seen -pdo periods like this before and we did much better wrt snow.  But the real kicker to me is that the 25% of the time the pac forcing does take on a more favorable configuration systems still are amplifying in the west and cutting.  I really do think there is more than the pac feeding the eastern conus ridge and it’s resisting even when the pac is neutral to decent. It’s only when the pac is like 100% perfect that it seems to be able to bully the SER out of existence. 

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15 minutes ago, Ji said:

weird we have the same mean snow as boston. Do we get a front end dump?

No on some members the secondary forms south enough to clip us as precip breaks out along the dying inverted trough. Boston would be in a bad spot in that setup as the low stalls under the block precip will focus SE to NW along the old boundary then shift east as it pulls away. Boston would be too far NE if that scenario played out. 

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No on some members the secondary forms south enough to clip us as precip breaks out along the dying inverted trough. Boston would be in a bad spot in that setup as the low stalls under the block precip will focus SE to NW along the old boundary then shift east as it pulls away. Boston would be too far NE if that scenario played out. 

Yea if the initial primary tracks far enough S the incoming energy behind the event which showed up today on the euro would act as a kicker. The low would bomb and then track ESE before going N. Kind of like the JMA.

Right now for any hope we need the primary shortwave to track farther S


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