stormtracker Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 Euro basically the same as 0z through to 120 hours, but with sightly higher heights/ridging in front of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 129, H5 low is a bit further north than 0z...surface is kind of a mess with low centered over OH. Likely gonna be a Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 There is some light precip at 129 with 0 line down in south central VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 It reforms around NC, but is too far east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: It reforms around NC, but is too far east Bring on the mid March threat...lfg!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 WB 12Z EURO; weak sauce for late week Miller B and moving too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO; weak sauce for late week Miller B and moving too far east. Goes to show how quickly modeling changes. Went from a MECS 2.5 days ago, to a SD Blizzard cutting well into MN, and now a Miller B too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 The north is still getting a lot of snowfall this week…WB 12Z EURO through Day 6 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Goes to show how quickly modeling changes. Went from a MECS 2.5 days ago, to a SD Blizzard cutting well into MN, and now a Miller B too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 it's all going to be dependent on if we pop a western ridge or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 So with late week falling off the table rapidly that takes us to March 12. The 12Z WB GEPS and GEFS does look good for the following week, but the GEFS seems to lose the cold anomalies at the end of that period around the 21st so that may be it. GEPS looks like cold will hold beyond the third week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Op euro was a disaster. SER goes nuts again in the long range. So far it’s one fluke op run. Let’s hope ensembles don’t trend that was. 12z gefs and geps didn’t. 0z eps wasn’t. If a strong phase 8/1 mjo can’t eradicate the SER we’re in serious trouble!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 WB 12Z EURO also looks dry through its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Superstorm 2023… 4 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Op euro was a disaster. SER goes nuts again in the long range. So far it’s one fluke op run. Let’s hope ensembles don’t trend that was. 12z gefs and geps didn’t. 0z eps wasn’t. If a strong phase 8/1 mjo can’t eradicate the SER we’re in serious trouble!!! Not every ridge is a SER. I don't see a SER in the LR on the EURO op. Once again the fundamental problem(on that run) is a trough digging out west. That means there will be a ridge to the east. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Superstorm 2023… Maybe I should go outside and enjoy that…a watched model never snows 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 WB 12Z EPS trying to pull me back in for the weekend. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS trying to pull me back in for the weekend. Well now, that’s enough to keep me making drinks in prep for happy hour now. Honestly, some nice hits in there. GFS Ens also improved so we still in this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 I guess I am so pessimistic about the weekend because none of the globals are showing an intensifying low at our latitude. It is only about 6-7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 This isn’t terrible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Great pattern change….WB 12Z GFS thru Day 10. Would be quadruple the amount of snow we have had all season in Augusta Co. I take lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: I am being facetious, I hope we get something the next few weeks. I am just going to have to stop tracking overnight until we get a clear threat. You keep saying that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 wth @psuhoffman. This is not at all in line with the ensembles/weeklies for March15 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: This isn’t terrible. weird we have the same mean snow as boston. Do we get a front end dump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not every ridge is a SER. I don't see a SER in the LR on the EURO op. Once again the fundamental problem is a trough digging out west. That means there will be a ridge to the east. But troughs will always enter the west. Look at our loading pattern 3-5 days before a snow. Often there is a trough out west. Rarely go we snow from a wave diving SE from Canada. A handful of times I’ve been in UT or CO and skiid in snow then flew home in time to get snowed on again from the same wave. problem is waves have to progress east not amplify and track NE. In this longwave configuration it makes sense we have trouble. look at the wave spacing in the pac. It supports an eastern ridge. But look at day 10. as the impact of the mjo forces pac waves that have died west of the Aleutians to progress instead of kicking that wave out of the NW instead it’s logjammed the pac into a mess. The pac doesn’t support a trough amplifying in the west and pumping an eastern ridge. The pac is being convoluted into an ungodly mess because fir whatever reason the trough won’t kick out. It’s as if there was a boulder dumped into the River over the CONUS forcing the flow to buckle around it backing up everything behind it! Now you are right that about 75% of the time the last 7 years the pac longwave pattern has been bad. My point is that doesn’t 100% account for our futility. We’ve seen -pdo periods like this before and we did much better wrt snow. But the real kicker to me is that the 25% of the time the pac forcing does take on a more favorable configuration systems still are amplifying in the west and cutting. I really do think there is more than the pac feeding the eastern conus ridge and it’s resisting even when the pac is neutral to decent. It’s only when the pac is like 100% perfect that it seems to be able to bully the SER out of existence. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: wth @psuhoffman. This is not at all in line with the ensembles/weeklies for March15 I think it’s just a bad op run. But see my discussion with Cape regarding what might be at play if that really is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 This isn’t terrible. That looks really, really good imo. Fine place to be 6/7 days out. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 15 minutes ago, Ji said: weird we have the same mean snow as boston. Do we get a front end dump? No on some members the secondary forms south enough to clip us as precip breaks out along the dying inverted trough. Boston would be in a bad spot in that setup as the low stalls under the block precip will focus SE to NW along the old boundary then shift east as it pulls away. Boston would be too far NE if that scenario played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 ensembles look good which is good enough for now, eps was amazing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 “It’s the pac” is a matter of degrees. But for those that want to stick to that, explain why we are doing worse wrt snow lately than previous -pdo periods when the pac was every bit as hostile as it’s been lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 No on some members the secondary forms south enough to clip us as precip breaks out along the dying inverted trough. Boston would be in a bad spot in that setup as the low stalls under the block precip will focus SE to NW along the old boundary then shift east as it pulls away. Boston would be too far NE if that scenario played out. Yea if the initial primary tracks far enough S the incoming energy behind the event which showed up today on the euro would act as a kicker. The low would bomb and then track ESE before going N. Kind of like the JMA.Right now for any hope we need the primary shortwave to track farther S . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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