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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Great pattern change….WB 12Z GFS thru Day 10.

68E6F1E6-333E-4FF6-AED2-CE5ABF30D684.png

Ironically alot of that in PA is from this Tuesday's system...which as a side note everyone in the PA sub has pretty much glazed over. Could potentially be the best hit of the run...doubt it as the pattern is loaded going forward,  but it could be.

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15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The GFS is under doing the CAD imo. We have north winds for 2 days leading up to any precip that makes it to the area. And we end up with pretty toasty surface temps according to the GFS. I am not buying it. 

 

2 days of a N flow prior get negated once the flow reverses fwiw. We aren't talking 3rd week of January molasses arctic hp stuck at the surface. 

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

2 days of a N flow prior get negated once the flow reverses fwiw. We aren't talking 3rd week of January molasses arctic hp stuck at the surface. 

Yes - and the SST's off the OBX are still very warm.  Would not take much of a flow from he SE or SSE to scour the CAD that's being referenced.  We've done that dance too many times.  

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

While I agree about time of year. That is a pretty cold air source up in Canada. Single digits to below zero. 

gfs_z850_vort_us_17.png

gfs_T2m_us_17.png

If those temps you noted were saturated in our CAD zones I would agree. But just having them up in Canada and not locked in down here won't negate the return flow effects.

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Strong signal on both GEFS and GEPS for another miller b type system from a NS wave diving in around the 15th. But this time the boundary is further south so we have a better chance. 
 

Then both have what might be the best threat around the 17-20 from a system being ejected from the pac further south with a cold airmass in place for once. That’s more indicative of a setup where a primary can stay south of us. 
 

After that signs the pattern continues but by then climo is becoming really hostile for most of this region so I might continue to track threats after in the PA forum. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Strong signal on both GEFS and GEPS for another miller b type system from a NS wave diving in around the 15th. But this time the boundary is further south so we have a better chance. 
 

Then both have what might be the best threat around the 17-20 from a system being ejected from the pac further south with a cold airmass in place for once. That’s more indicative of a setup where a primary can stay south of us. 
 

After that signs the pattern continues but by then climo is becoming really hostile for most of this region so I might continue to track threats after in the PA forum. 

This is the period I have liked, just beyond whatever happens on the 11-12th. Pretty close on the heels, but a nice look here on the CMC mean. Fresh cold air in place. That's what us lowlanders like to see.

1678816800-V1nEfTUwjGY.png

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Quick illustration why that wave around the 17-18th is different. 
C3DF31F5-ECA4-4DA9-BA03-349399B7F1BD.thumb.jpeg.276d51322ffa7473384324bae8e0897d.jpeg
that western trough isn’t the same. It’s a system ejecting off the pac (y) but it can’t amplify out west. Look at the pacific Z, it’s actually trying to pump a ridge in the west. That trough is just temporary as a system cuts across. Between the flow behind X and ahead of Z, Y has to kick out and track east not north and there is cold in front of it. 
 

Yes I know it’s March 17 my turn just pointing out why that is the best synoptic setup for us to get a flush hit. 

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is the period I have liked, just beyond whatever happens on the 11-12th. Pretty close on the heels, but a nice look here on the CMC mean. Fresh cold air in place. That's what us lowlanders like to see.

1678816800-V1nEfTUwjGY.png

Agree. As the period comes into better focus it seems guidance indicates 2 waves in that period. The first seems to favor another miller b with a NS wave diving SE into the trough. The next favors a pac wave ejecting out of the southwest but this time into a flow unlikely to cut. 

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