stormtracker Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 H5 at 114 hour, 12z GFS looks nothing like 6z. Height rises down in front vs 6z but surface low make it up to IL, SE of it's position at 6z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 @stormtracker even if it’s not enough to help us with wave 1, we want the less amplified out west leading to a further east amplification scenario. Because the further east wave 1 amplifies the more effective it will be at setting the table for wave 2. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 All features are definitly S and E of 6z positions, with a tiny bit of CAD that's scoured out. But colder than 6z GFS, but not by much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 even if this run verbatim doesn't do it very good improvements 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 Although not likely to be flush hit, the changes are positive 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: All features are definitly S and E of 6z positions, with a tiny bit of CAD that's scoured out. But colder than 6z GFS, but not by much. Looks like it is trying to set up a better boundary position for wave two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 i think its safe to say GFS caved 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Nobody discussing the CMC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Looks like it is trying to set up a better boundary position for wave two. This…my main focus on wave 1 is how it sets up wave 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 One thing for certain, unlike last storm GFS is still all over the place for late week. WB 12Z Friday v 6Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Unless it hits then I’m interested in wave 1 lol. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 Looks like redevelopment is trying to happen, but just below our latitude. Miller B with some frozen snow for us, but it's pulling away it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 We def get the ol Milller B screw job, but again...all features moved SE so that's good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Looks like redevelopment is trying to happen, but just below our latitude. Miller B with some frozen snow for us, but it's pulling away it seems. The block is having an effect. @Jimight have been right. Guidance trends bad when long lead chaos shows a good solution in a bad pattern. But the opposite should be true also! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 CMC has trended to moving the quasi "SER" feature farther West each run. Trying to slide it near the PNA region Eta: well, it is moving that way then the vort squashes any thoughts of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: We def get the ol Milller B screw job, but again...all features moved SE so that's good. Consolation is that scenario sets up the next waves better. Remember it was a miller b that missed us that set the stage in March 2018. The next wave after actually got suppressed to our south then the 3rd wave is what finally delivered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 38 minutes ago, jayyy said: Correct. Euro has a better verification score A better verification score regarding which parameters? I have wondered about this for a long time. My guess would be long/short wave evolution but perhaps a met could clear this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Consolation is that scenario sets up the next waves better. Remember it was a miller b that missed us that set the stage in March 2018. The next wave after actually got suppressed to our south then the 3rd wave is what finally delivered. Second wave has moisture gathering in the midwest...really flat at H5 tho, so not sure what it will do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Second wave has moisture gathering in the midwest...really flat at H5 tho, so not sure what it will do It’s possible wave 2 gets suppressed and the one behind…but yea I know we’re running out of time. The flow will be pretty suppressive for a while behind this first wave. This pattern is very similar to 2018 but we’re progressing about 5 days behind. That’s a big deal this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 @stormtracker flow already starting to back at 168. I think wave 2 has a shot on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @stormtracker flow already starting to back at 168. I think wave 2 has a shot on this run. Looks a little warm but it could still be a paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 192, CAD is in the area , but doesn't seem entrenched. PSU's second wave is alive . Light snow in the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 For reference this is what we want the thermals to look like as a wave approaches. Lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 198 frozen, but light and about to pull away from the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 198 frozen, but light and about to pull away from the area Pivotal shows all rain except for far northwest burbs, maybe wave three will get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Wave 2 is a good setup. What limits it this run is a weird thing I doubt is correct from this range. that upper low over Michigan instead of sliding east (good) or phasing in (great) retrogrades NW to north of Minn…see which opens the door to ridging along the east coast. That’s a very weird progression. It’s too much of a good thing, blocking retrograding the whole pattern too much lol. Wouldn’t worry about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Ides of March or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Other guidance is 48 hours slower with wave 2 so Gfs likely doesn’t even have the generals correct so not worried about a weird specific issue like that NS retrograding low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 GEFS better 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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