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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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Just now, stormtracker said:

Looks like redevelopment is trying to happen, but just below our latitude.  Miller B with some frozen snow for us, but it's pulling away it seems.

The block is having an effect. @Jimight have been right. Guidance trends bad when long lead chaos shows a good solution in a bad pattern. But the opposite should be true also!  

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Just now, stormtracker said:

We def get the ol Milller B screw job, but again...all features moved SE so that's good.

Consolation is that scenario sets up the next waves better. Remember it was a miller b that missed us that set the stage in March 2018.   The next wave after actually got suppressed to our south then the 3rd wave is what finally delivered. 

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38 minutes ago, jayyy said:


Correct. Euro has a better verification score

A better verification score regarding which parameters?  I have wondered about this for a long time.  My guess would be long/short wave evolution but perhaps a met could clear this up.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Consolation is that scenario sets up the next waves better. Remember it was a miller b that missed us that set the stage in March 2018.   The next wave after actually got suppressed to our south then the 3rd wave is what finally delivered. 

Second wave has moisture gathering in the midwest...really flat at H5 tho, so not sure what it will do

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Second wave has moisture gathering in the midwest...really flat at H5 tho, so not sure what it will do

It’s possible wave 2 gets suppressed and the one behind…but yea I know we’re running out of time.  The flow will be pretty suppressive for a while behind this first wave.  This pattern is very similar to 2018 but we’re progressing about 5 days behind. That’s a big deal this time of year. 

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Wave 2 is a good setup. What limits it this run is a weird thing I doubt is correct from this range. 92F58EE5-E80F-47EB-AA41-76F3C7588A9F.thumb.png.8762908abccce97c679589c9ae113357.png

that upper low over Michigan instead of sliding east (good) or phasing in (great) retrogrades NW to north of Minn…see 

D3823E61-59E8-4D5D-8292-679D0C786F4F.thumb.png.70c550e9ab1d5cdb4fd326ac677aeab9.png

which opens the door to ridging along the east coast.  That’s a very weird progression.  It’s too much of a good thing, blocking retrograding the whole pattern too much lol. Wouldn’t worry about it. 

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