frd Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Plenty of spread among the EPS members on low location for the 11-12th period. Not the strongest signal I have ever seen for a favorable MA coastal low track. Best signal for frozen in this window is to our north, again. Still time. I really hope we can break the 3-year consistency of inland coastal lows, or coastal huggers. Going to take a few more days to get clarity on this I imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: What a thread Your post made it. Epic. Now we can all gleefully glide into ultimate failure and put this wretched thing to rest. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 GFS and Euro still worlds apart around Day 5 with how they handle the PAC energy. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, alexderiemer said: this might be the funniest thing I've seen in about 5 years on here. Did you miss his Hitler meeting with his generals YouTube video? Hard to top that, but this was funny af for sure! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Heisy said: One for the ages. I failed photoshop class, while you obviously earned honors. Im still right though! Verbatim it’s not an ideal look for the Mid-Atlantic, yet… key word, yet. If we see changes on upcoming OP/EPS runs that make positive steps to a better winter storm I’ll be the first one on board… Spot the difference One is faster with the lower heights moving east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 GFS and Euro still worlds apart around Day 5 with how they handle the PAC energy. .What’s worse is neither give us snow 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 12 minutes ago, Heisy said: . yeah, the GFS basically retrogrades the main vort into the ocean instead of shooting it east like the GEPS/EPS. it's so different from everything else that I still can't really believe its depiction yet either way, it seems like it's keying in on the later timeframe between the 13-16th. either way, we will probably get something. don't see how we get out of this unscathed 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Everyone so uptight in this place! Chill. It’s just snow. We should have a meet up here at Other Half one day. Trust me. Nobody caring about snow after a few 13-14% pastry stouts! PS - notice the snowflake hanging in the pic. That’s a symbol of how much snow has fallen in DC this year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 One is faster with the lower heights moving east?Yes exactly. If eps is right we’d want to see the ULL around lakes progress a little faster east leaving some room for backside trough to amplify. Right now everything is just too far N and not spaced right, we also don’t really have agreement on how the pac energy and PNA ridge evolve. As Ji said it would be nice to actually get some damn blue over the mid Atlantic on one OP or ensemble run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Yes exactly. If eps is right we’d want to see the ULL around lakes progress a little faster east leaving some room for backside trough to amplify. Right now everything is just too far N and not spaced right, we also don’t really have agreement on how the pac energy and PNA ridge evolve. As Ji said it would be nice to actually get some damn blue over the mid Atlantic on one OP or ensemble run . I think I actually understand this part. No, really I do. Seems like a U when we need a V 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 yeah, the GFS basically retrogrades the main vort into the ocean instead of shooting it east like the GEPS/EPS. it's so different from everything else that I still can't really believe its depiction yet either way, it seems like it's keying in on the later timeframe between the 13-16th. either way, we will probably get something. don't see how we get out of this unscathedIt does have some support though looking at Canadian and UKIE, JMA a bit too. I wouldn’t write off the GFS evolution yet. I’ve thought all along that our best shot will be at end of pattern change, more towards mid month or so. Either way I agree, we “should” get something out of this. Would just be nice to get some snow snow up on an OP run under 9-10 days soon lol. Patience is dried up honestly. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just now, Heisy said: It does have some support though looking at Canadian and UKIE, JMA a bit too. I wouldn’t write off the GFS evolution yet. I’ve thought all along that our best shot will be at end of pattern change, more towards mid month or so. Either way I agree, we “should” get something out of this. Would just be nice to get some snow snow up on an OP run under 9-10 days soon lol. Patience is dried up honestly. . the CMC's evolution does not agree with its own ensemble... the GEPS agrees with the EPS. as of right now, I am highly prioritizing the ENS due to the uncertainty of the pattern features also the GFS does end up popping a big coastal at the end of the run. there will be lots of chances in this pattern. not one and done 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 35 minutes ago, frd said: I really hope we can break the 3-year consistency of inland coastal lows, or coastal huggers. Going to take a few more days to get clarity on this I imagine. Outside of that we have had offshore coastal lows produce big snow for southern/eastern areas when we have had a mechanism for legit cold(-EPO/PNA) and complete absence of SE ridge. Might be a new normal or base state embedded in there somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 25 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Did you miss his Hitler meeting with his generals YouTube video? Hard to top that, but this was funny af for sure! That was a classic...should have been nominated for an Oscar, it would win hands down!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 All the whining about the Gfs and at 300 hours we simply needed this adjustment to get a snowstorm. Well it adjusted and still no snow. What else you got? 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 15 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yes exactly. If eps is right we’d want to see the ULL around lakes progress a little faster east leaving some room for backside trough to amplify. Right now everything is just too far N and not spaced right, we also don’t really have agreement on how the pac energy and PNA ridge evolve. As Ji said it would be nice to actually get some damn blue over the mid Atlantic on one OP or ensemble run . But you compared 2 Euro runs a day apart that DO show the energy ejected more quickly east. I am confused now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 definitely an improvement on the GEFS. should get more of the vorticity out of the west on this run. notice the increase in heights over S CA 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 24 minutes ago, Scraff said: Everyone so uptight in this place! Chill. It’s just snow. We should have a meet up here at Other Half one day. Trust me. Nobody caring about snow after a few 13-14% pastry stouts! PS - notice the snowflake hanging in the pic. That’s a symbol of how much snow has fallen in DC this year. Their stouts are so GD sweet though! I like snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Every run seems like a loud sounding hit that ends up a shallow fly to left field 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 HH a good run for places south of us. Usual adjustment.. We good! Eh, congrats NE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 here we go. the GEFS has a legitimate storm signal with multiple <980 SLPs that are suppressed. this is the ideal spot for the GEFS to be IMO. strong and suppressed. this is the first run with anything even close to this kind of coastal signal straight up cave. I'm becoming more and more confident that the EPS has the right idea with the overall evolution 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Not bad. Definitely an improved signal for frozen around the 11th in our area compared to recent runs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 it's also worth noting that if there is a legit coastal, it will almost certainly be cold enough. there would be no concerns about precip type if you have a sub-1000mb low passing to your south 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: HH a good run for places south of us. Usual adjustment.. We good! Eh, congrats NE. Wait til our Brooklyn friend learns about Boxing Day 2010 down this way… 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, the GFS basically retrogrades the main vort into the ocean instead of shooting it east like the GEPS/EPS. it's so different from everything else that I still can't really believe its depiction yet either way, it seems like it's keying in on the later timeframe between the 13-16th. either way, we will probably get something. don't see how we get out of this unscathed The 18Z GFS has a whopping 1060 mb surface high west of Hudson Bay at hour 138! Other runs and models have shown something similar for then. This kind of thing being repeatedly shown and it now being only 6 days out tells me that the pressure may not be overdone. For comparison, the record highest SLP for all of Canada in March is only 1 mb higher and that is way up in northern Nunavut! Also, the highest SLP on record for that area west of Hudson Bay is only ~1058 mb for all months, not just March. That alone is enough to tell me we're likely dealing with a very highly anomalous setup, which may lead to something historic for the US down the road in terms of cold and wintry weather. The map below has the all time record highest SLPs in Canada for all months. Note the 580 just N of NW Manitoba (1058 mb): https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: here we go. the GEFS has a legitimate storm signal with multiple <980 SLPs that are suppressed. this is the ideal spot for the GEFS to be IMO. strong and suppressed. this is the first run with anything even close to this kind of coastal signal straight up cave. I'm becoming more and more confident that the EPS has the right idea with the overall evolution Bring it home brklynwx99 This is your storm! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 12 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Wait til our Brooklyn friend learns about Boxing Day 2010 down this way… Have to admit, I skated past true failure here. A big disappointment based on the forecast, but still low end warning event. But yeah, an overall fail for the region as a whole and up there with the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Bring it home brklynwx99 This is your storm! haha trust me, myself and some others here have been tracking this threat window since the SSWE popped up on radar. this threat window is like a month in the making lmao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 But this is fitting for us. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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